The Club!

E/U STILL UPTREND..

EW EU count

https://atozforex.com/news/19-july-e...wave-analysis/


nice idea, but who can find the pivotal fault?

Hint: it is inside the last wave C which marked the high yesterday :-)

DXY 8% bulls

EURUSD 87% bulls


there might not be much ammunition left

e/u...1630/50 Can be very strong R...
Let's see if euro still have the strength to get there. to short there

I only see up at this moment ... where the euro stops ..I do not know.
I continue with 1650 ... or 19xx as very likely zones .

W..chart

http://elliottwavegold.com/2017/07/e...medium=twitter

Lara on dxy

dxy 11% bulls

EU 83% bulls

nice Video analysis

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfg...9mgzMjrw5N2NGg

Secular Disinflationary Trend Hits New Highs: Deflation on Deck? What’s That Mean for Gold?

Click here to view Mish's entire Venture Alliance Presentation, 38 slides in all.

what is up with ForexFactory?

Hardly one can see activity. Where are the active threads with technical analysis? Alexa Rank is sinking significantly as well as the numbers of Backlinks.

Is FF in trouble?

Senex FX actual EW Video

DXY EW count near term

David Rosenberg: "This Is The Single Most Important Thing For The Market Over The Next Decade"

very interesting stuff

does not make me feel comfortable

A Complete History Of John McCain Calling For War Around The World

https://www.economist.com/news/finan...s-dear-big-mac


BigMac Index

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Big Mac Index Interactive


Most people only know the raw Big Mac Index, simply comparing the prices. But there is also a GDP adjusted version of the Big Mac Index, which much better reflects the differences in the prices.

raw:



adjusted:

I love such tools :-)

now I have calculated the Big Mac Index for the USD-Index

keep in mind: the price "The Economist" obtained, are from around beginning July to 13th July (they published on the 13th)


The result is, that the raw Index shows 15,4% overvaluation in the UDX, whereas the GDP adjusted Index shows 3,5% overvaluation

Observation: raw Index likes to swing between -50% and +50% in many countries, the GDP adjusted Index swings a bit more narrow as it seems

Question to all:

what is the reason, that Currencies sometimes show e.g. up to 50% overvaluation/undervaluation? I mean that is really really a wide swing from fair value.

Also the question is: when prices can be determined by fundamental analysis, does this mean, that the fundamental analysis deals with such an huge error rate?

EU sentiment:

regardless where I look I can hardly see USD-bullish opinion/analysis.

Looking at the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) (Option traders) for weeks now the DX is in very low territory. In May we saw only around 5% bulls, now we are around 11%.

The longer such extreme conditions appear, the sharper the snap-back reaction most of the time.

OK, looking at retail trader positioning, we now see over a very long time, that the retail crowd is short and bleeding. But looking into their placed orders, one can sense, that they got trapped in their short positions and will exit them as soon as possible for somewhat better prices. The buy orders are all placed down the way to 1.10 and lower.

Keep in mind: at the turning point it seems that the crowd is very often right (but do not look at the price they paid for this honor). But instead of riding the pig for some good time in their favored direction they are quick to abandon the ship and jump to the former trend direction.