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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #30,421
  • Jul 18, 2017 3:41pm Jul 18, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting PeterT
Bad day part II Don't know if people ever read my posts lol If not, at least it serves as a good way to reflect on my trading and also as some kind of online diary that I keep and that will make me laugh my pants off in five years or so NQ First trade Expectation NSL. Drew my AOI. Price came in it, passed it a little bit, then rotation candle came. Projection OK, impulse OK(?), depth of correction in golden zone OK. At least 2/3. But I was too early. Price went further up. Taken out -5.75 points. Followed rules I think. Second trade Still expecting...
To my untrained eyes, your analysis looks good, although the time frame might be a little on the long side. for NQ, you're expecting a 40pt move. That's 160 ticks. your SL should be above 863 imo since that is the timescale you are trading on.
  • #30,422
  • Jul 18, 2017 4:47pm Jul 18, 2017 4:47pm
Quoting PeterT
Bad day part II Don't know if people ever read my posts lol If not, .... {image}
I read it.
  • #30,423
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:02pm Jul 18, 2017 5:02pm
Quoting PeterT
Bad day. USDJPY -8 and -15 pips First trade. Went long because I felt price would correct deeper to the upside before going further down. I felt so because we were at a long term support zone, price tested the area twice and went up with three nice volume bull candles. I went long at test of immediate structure. Taken out for -8. Did I go long according to the criteria in my trade plan? No. So --> my fault. I'll take that one. Second trade. I think OK let's not go against the trend, go with the trend. Follow your trade plan. Had a nice bear move...
I give I try.

1st trade: After the big candle and the fact that price corrected already deep (I do not know the exact Fib, but looks like 50 to 61) and we got a small 1:1 to the upside, so it is likely that price will tend to go down (retracement of the small 1:1 and longer term expectation).

2nd trade: Here was the broke of structure (left) decisive and price did a 1:1 to the upside. If you look on the left, you can see that you took a short right in a demand area.

PS: Do not get me wrong, it is always easier to look at things in hinsight. Hope it helps.
  • #30,424
  • Jul 18, 2017 9:57pm Jul 18, 2017 9:57pm
Are there anyone here trading spot Gold? I would be joining the discussion and sharing screenshots for gold/usd, using M5 timeframe.
steady wins the race
  • #30,425
  • Jul 18, 2017 10:05pm Jul 18, 2017 10:05pm
Here's my first trade for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 15 KB
steady wins the race
  • #30,426
  • Jul 19, 2017 5:18am Jul 19, 2017 5:18am
Quoting Maveneli
Here's my first trade for the day. {image}
why don't u enter at the completion of D?
  • #30,427
  • Jul 19, 2017 5:41am Jul 19, 2017 5:41am
Quoting Maveneli
Here's my first trade for the day. {image}
WHen you post a chart try to include the x/y-axis and name the instrument. Also, try to put things in context, just a snippet of PA is not enough. That fosters myopic trading and very short term where most scalpers reside and lose money or just makes peanuts like +3, +9 ticks. Given your chart i would not have gone short there as you are near a level of support although i know price went lower and this is Gold because i had to start MT4 and open Gold to understand your ruling reasons to take the trade.
  • #30,428
  • Jul 19, 2017 7:31am Jul 19, 2017 7:31am
Quoting ckh626
{quote} To my untrained eyes, your analysis looks good, although the time frame might be a little on the long side. for NQ, you're expecting a 40pt move. That's 160 ticks. your SL should be above 863 imo since that is the timescale you are trading on.
Thanks for replying ckh626.
I agree the SL was not ideally located.
Not sure if that is a problem or not.
I remember Mr. Pip sometimes not placing the SL above or below the main swing because the risk would be too big.
If that is the case I put the SL where I think my view on the PA is no longer valid and I want to be out of the trade.
In this case it was the 78.6% that I saw as last line of defense for the bears. If that zone was crossed, I wanted to be out of the trade because the potential loss would be too big and the probability of the trade working out would be lower.

Also bearing in mind that (in some cases) I can always re-enter if I see PA going my way again.

Not sure if you or others agree with that?
  • #30,429
  • Jul 19, 2017 7:39am Jul 19, 2017 7:39am
Good evening / morning everyone, hope everyone is great week this week

1 hour before market opening:

YM

Expectation: NSL with a possible 1 to 1 completion 565 on the intraday before the continuation of the bearish trend

NQ

Expectation: NSH with a 1 to 1 completion @ 5914
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_19.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 09-17 (377 Tick) 2017_07_19.png Size: 50 KB
  • #30,430
  • Jul 19, 2017 7:55am Jul 19, 2017 7:55am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I read it.
Okay

Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I give I try. 1st trade: After the big candle and the fact that price corrected already deep (I do not know the exact Fib, but looks like 50 to 61) and we got a small 1:1 to the upside, so it is likely that price will tend to go down (retracement of the small 1:1 and longer term expectation). 2nd trade: Here was the broke of structure (left) decisive and price did a 1:1 to the upside. If you look on the left, you can see that you took a short right in a demand area. PS: Do not get me wrong, it is always easier to look at things in hinsight....
Thanks for replying evocpr19.

1st trade - You are right but I was looking at the larger swing when I saw that bull reaction. Looking at that swing the correction was not that deep yet. I had reasons to enter long and I still feel like they were not completely wrong (unless somebody says they were!). But these reasons were not in my rules. I was impatient and wanted to enter a trade. That's bad.
If I had followed my rules I would not have entered short because bulls came into AOI too strongly. And the rotation down was late and no room to protect.
So I should not have been in the trade no matter how I look at it :-)

2nd trade - You're right I was trading into that small support zone. I don't understand where you mean that the break of structure was decisive. Do you mean when price got under the blue support zone and then broke it to the upside again? So we could expect the zoneto become support again? Or do you mean something else?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 146 KB
  • #30,431
  • Jul 19, 2017 8:57am Jul 19, 2017 8:57am
GM Traders, Just wanted to pop in and remind everyone about the live stream on Friday 0900 eastern time. Also to give you pattern traders a heads up. There is a very nice Bat Pattern setting up on the YM longer term The chart below is of the 1597 Tick (1597 is a Fib number). The PRZ for the aggressive C sell is between 21583 -21606. The profit target somewhere around 21272. There is a lot of elements that add strength to this pattern making it a very high probability setup if it gets there for the C sell. Next test for the bulls will be around 566 which is before the PRZ so don't get trigger happy the market will probably correct there.

See you all on Friday!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (1597 Tick) 2017_07_19.png Size: 108 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #30,432
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:02am Jul 19, 2017 9:02am
Quoting Mr. Pip
GM Traders, Just wanted to pop in and remind everyone about the live stream on Friday 0900 eastern time. Also to give you pattern traders a heads up. There is a very nice Bat Pattern setting up on the YM longer term The chart below is of the 1597 Tick (1597 is a Fib number). The PRZ for the aggressive C sell is between 21583 -21606. The profit target somewhere around 21272. There is a lot of elements that add strength to this pattern making it a very high probability setup if it gets there for the C sell. Next test for the bulls will be around 566...
Thanks for the reminder Mr Pip! See you this Friday.
  • #30,433
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:02am Jul 19, 2017 9:02am
This is what I have on YM. What do you have guys?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_19 9.59pm.png Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_19 10.01pm.png Size: 87 KB
  • #30,434
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:11am Jul 19, 2017 9:11am
expect a NSH, went long at support area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20170719.PNG Size: 82 KB
  • #30,435
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:15am Jul 19, 2017 9:15am
Quoting Victor_Lin
expect a NSH, went long at support area {image}
Nice. It took awhile for a rotation candle that looked good, but the action was very indecisive until the oil report came out.
  • #30,436
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:15am Jul 19, 2017 9:15am
Quoting Victor_Lin
expect a NSH, went long at support area {image}
Coming into resistant area from the long term time frame. So I am waiting and will be very picky with the short entry as the immediate order flow is still for a NSH. All the best!
  • #30,437
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:18am Jul 19, 2017 9:18am
looks like i miss the YM train ride down because of my meeting >.>
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_19.png Size: 66 KB
  • #30,438
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:23am Jul 19, 2017 9:23am
Quoting Milfortra
{quote} Coming into resistant area from the long term time frame. So I am waiting and will be very picky with the short entry as the immediate order flow is still for a NSH. All the best!
According to the PA at the moment, it's high probability to break previous low and continue the long term order flow.
  • #30,439
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:27am Jul 19, 2017 9:27am
Quoting Victor_Lin
{quote} According to the PA at the moment, it's high probability to break previous low and continue the long term order flow.
Hope it doesn't. I like the deep correction it just made and hope that it crawls up to my AOI before giving me a good and healthy rotation candle to the downside.
  • #30,440
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:31am Jul 19, 2017 9:31am
Quoting Milfortra
{quote} Hope it doesn't. I like the deep correction it just made and hope that it crawls up to my AOI before giving me a good and healthy rotation candle to the downside.
Damn. Looks like the rotation candle is coming too early.
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