{quote} Which curve?
AUDUSD 15M
Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading
- #1,602
- Jul 18, 2017 6:37am Jul 18, 2017 6:37am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
{quote} isn't this high curve AUDUSD 15M {image}
At what point did the "direction" around A change and the market go long?
I don't dispute there was a fresh supply made around 0.7840 going up. But has the underlying SR changed enough to consider shorting it at the point you did? You're focusing far too much on trying to trade zones instead of reading "direction" first. Remember: zones appear all over the chart but they're nothing without context.
Finally, I agree that price could have tested that fresh supply and given some form of bearish engulfing PA thus creating a double-top opportunity to short. And to be honest, there is even a rationale for taking the short where you did as long as we realise the contra-nature of what we're getting into. But in the first instance I have to say that it's much better to be a little more "boring" in life and focus instead on direction. Everything stems from there.
- #1,606
- Jul 18, 2017 10:34am Jul 18, 2017 10:34am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
USDJPY M5
This is in a nice place to analyse on this TF if anyone would like to post something. One horizontal line, one rectangle (and a little bit about "direction").
This is in a nice place to analyse on this TF if anyone would like to post something. One horizontal line, one rectangle (and a little bit about "direction").
- #1,607
- Jul 18, 2017 10:53am Jul 18, 2017 10:53am
USDJPY M5 This is in a nice place to analyse on this TF if anyone would like to post something. One horizontal line, one rectangle (and a little bit about "direction"). {image}
I would put 'direction' as down until it breaks the Supply above successfully with acceptance... being aware of the next Supply above...
- #1,608
- Jul 18, 2017 11:24am Jul 18, 2017 11:24am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
{quote} {image} I would put 'direction' as down until it breaks the Supply above successfully with acceptance... being aware of the next Supply above...
- #1,610
- Jul 18, 2017 11:37am Jul 18, 2017 11:37am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
Going to sign off the night but beforehand will add some more details on USDJPY analysis.
H4
Until that S/R is breached this pair is still in short cycle for me. 30 minutes to go on the current candle.
Daily
Price is testing some historic S/R breakout stuff. We know that on the Daily candle close, price in this context "could" rally. If you wish to see what that PA looks like check out AUDUSD on Daily from about 7 days ago. Obviously we won't know if that rally has occurred until tomorrow's close. On that basis we can't trade what we think, we must trade what we see, however, part of this game is to know everything that can happen and just keep an open mind.
M5
We have breached supply, fresh demand and some BRL along the way up. Perhaps some good opportunity but for sure good for watching and learning.
H4
Until that S/R is breached this pair is still in short cycle for me. 30 minutes to go on the current candle.
Daily
Price is testing some historic S/R breakout stuff. We know that on the Daily candle close, price in this context "could" rally. If you wish to see what that PA looks like check out AUDUSD on Daily from about 7 days ago. Obviously we won't know if that rally has occurred until tomorrow's close. On that basis we can't trade what we think, we must trade what we see, however, part of this game is to know everything that can happen and just keep an open mind.
M5
We have breached supply, fresh demand and some BRL along the way up. Perhaps some good opportunity but for sure good for watching and learning.
- #1,611
- Jul 19, 2017 10:29am Jul 19, 2017 10:29am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
Perhaps some good opportunity but for sure good for watching and learning.
First test of the BRL created a demand, and the first test of the demand gave a reaction.
There was also a nice supply created around Frankfurt open with a test (check mark) that essentially becomes the "trade of the day". Having said that, I traded neither. The tests have been weak at best, and I didn't see any PA made with conviction. The demand created around last night's BRL is now inflected into supply (albeit a bit of a midzone) around 111.90. A short trade there would depend on the testing PA.
This chart I think demonstrates the limitations of using confirming PA as opposed to Limit orders. The short trade and the long trade would both have made good pips - in fact the short is around 60 pips with excellent RR. Waiting for decent confirming PA (that didn't come) means I stayed out, however. There are pros and cons for doing it either way, and it's obviously a "personality" thing. But regardless of how tempting using Limits often seems, it flies in the face of my own logic because there's no doubt in my mind that with this type of entry we're ultimately selling when price is going up, or buying when it's going down. And that just never felt right to me.
- #1,612
- Jul 19, 2017 11:38am Jul 19, 2017 11:38am
{quote} Bit of follow up. First test of the BRL created a demand, and the first test of the demand gave a reaction. There was also a nice supply created around Frankfurt open with a test (check mark) that essentially becomes the "trade of the day". Having said that, I traded neither. The tests have been weak at best, and I didn't see any PA made with conviction. The demand created around last night's BRL is now inflected into supply (albeit a bit of a midzone) around 111.90. A short trade there would depend on the testing PA. This chart I think...
good trades
- #1,615
- Jul 20, 2017 3:53am Jul 20, 2017 3:53am
{quote} Yep, I think you're absolutely right. I won't be trading now until Monday but will give it some thought over the next few days. Have a good weekend.
Who the heck knows whats going to happen. "confirming" PA is already part of the past which is why I went with limit orders originally. But after watching the % of zones that get blown out I went back to confirming PA 
I do trade both, just lately it has been more micro (if you will) breakouts of some pause in price once it reaches a zone. RR is always nice on those.
Simon just curious - how many zones do you actually draw vs just looking at a HTF chart and taking them into consideration? I ask because on your daily UJ chart your obviously not going to have a nice ugly blue background for all the M1/5 trading that happens within that daily zone. I hope?
Have a nice weekend everyone
I do trade both, just lately it has been more micro (if you will) breakouts of some pause in price once it reaches a zone. RR is always nice on those.
Simon just curious - how many zones do you actually draw vs just looking at a HTF chart and taking them into consideration? I ask because on your daily UJ chart your obviously not going to have a nice ugly blue background for all the M1/5 trading that happens within that daily zone. I hope?
Have a nice weekend everyone
- #1,617
- Jul 23, 2017 6:23am Jul 23, 2017 6:23am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
Simon just curious - how many zones do you actually draw vs just looking at a HTF chart and taking them into consideration? I ask because on your daily UJ chart your obviously not going to have a nice ugly blue background for all the M1/5 trading that happens within that daily zone. I hope?
The D1 zone was initially there for higher TF reference only and is removed when analysing/trading lower TFs. So yes, you're quite correct there won't be that ugly blue background sending our eyes crazy
In terms of how many zones I would actually draw when trading the lower TFs, there's no specific answer and it really just depends on the current structure of the market. What I can say I saw is an inverted H/S with fresh demand in the right shoulder and some nice liquid bull candles that'd engulfed the prior structure to the left. There was also clearly the BRL, which is again just 1 x reference line drawn at the price the market broke out. So in this case, (at the time of posting the original chart) the demand zone and the BRL were the only two prices of interest - in fact, my price alert was set at the BRL. The same chart is attached below for reference.
- #1,618
- Jul 25, 2017 2:26am Jul 25, 2017 2:26am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
EURJPY M5
Would be really nice. Might not happen obviously, but until higher prices are breached this would be my consideration for today.
Would be really nice. Might not happen obviously, but until higher prices are breached this would be my consideration for today.
- #1,619
- Jul 25, 2017 3:00am Jul 25, 2017 3:00am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
EURJPY M5 Would be really nice. Might not happen obviously, but until higher prices are breached this would be my consideration for today. {image}
The more detailed reason for looking to see if a M5 short opportunity would set up lies in the H4.
There was a lower high fresh supply zone created around the 21st, and price was currently testing the outside bear candle. At the time of posting H4 was bearish, and although we can't call that candle until it's printed, the lower TFs were looking interesting. Even though price has turned I see no reason to buy it at this point.
