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Attachments: 1 trade per week system (Backtesting included)
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1 trade per week system (Backtesting included)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 23, 2017 9:06am Jul 17, 2017 9:15am | Edited Oct 23, 2017 9:06am
Hi Guys,
I have been trading for almost 10 years. Basically trading my own EAs, and some manual trading.
I am going to share with you one of my systems. It only takes 5 minutes per week.

ONLY RULE BEFORE POSTING HERE:
* ANY POSITIVE CRITICISM IS WELCOME. DO NOT POST IN THIS THREAD IF YOU ARE ONLY GOING TO PROVIDE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK WITHOUT A POSSIBLE SOLUTION. I HATE PEOPLE THAT DOESN'T APPRECIATE THE HARD WORK OF OTHERS. I DON'T HAVE TO GIVE MY SYSTEM, I DONT NEED , AND I AM NOT TRYING TO SELL ANYTHING. I AM OPENING THIS THREAD BECAUSE I WANT TO HELP OTHER TRADERS. SO BEFORE POSTING TAKE A MOMENT TO THINK. NOT FOLLOWING THIS RULE WILL GET YOU BANNED AUTOMATICALLY WITHOUT ANY NOTIFICATION

* I SUGGEST NOT TO TRADE THIS SYSTEM ALONE. USE IT AS A PART OF YOUR PORTFOLIO OF SYSTEMS. SINCE IT ONLY TAKES 1 TRADE PER WEEK, IT WILL EXPERIMENT SOME BREAKEVEN PERIODS. IN THE LONG TERM IS MAKING MONEY.



- Pair: Eur/usd
- Chart: daily chart
- Stop loss: 1.3 daily ATR (14 period)
- Risk per trade: 2% up to 5%

Entry rules:

- If friday daily candle was red, enter long at the open of next week (In my case Sunday 21:00gmt).
- If friday daily candle was green, enter short at the open of next week (In my case Sunday 21:00 gmt)

Close the trade at the end of the day (In my case Monday 21:00 gmt) if the trade is positive. If the trade is not positive, then wait until the end of Tuesday to close it.

I am attaching backtest from Oct 2010- July 2017. I am using Pepperstone broker (daily candle opens and closes around 21:00 gmt). Backtest results might vary a little bit between brokers, but not that much.

Good Luck!

UPDATE: EA specifications:

Risk: Risk per trade
ATR period: Use daily period as stop loss
ATRMult: X times the daily ATR as stoploss. So if you choose 2, then the stop loss size will be 2 times de daily ATR.
Place trade time: 00:05. Will place the trade at the open on Monday at 00:05. In my case this is 21:05 GMT.

Code will not be shared. This is a free EA, with expiration date that will be updated regulary every 3 months for free. I choose that in order to prevent from some people to sell it. It will always be free.

Backtest Oct 2010- JUly 2017 (Using 5% risk per trade)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 6 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Cocolizo EA Friday Monday.ex4   16 KB | 901 downloads | Uploaded Oct 23, 2017 9:06am
  • #2
  • Jul 17, 2017 11:48am Jul 17, 2017 11:48am
+1
  • #3
  • Jul 17, 2017 12:07pm Jul 17, 2017 12:07pm
Quoting cocolizo67
I am attaching backtest from 2014-2017.

Would you have been willing and able to trade it with equanimity during the 6-month period that had a 35% drawdown?

Do you appreciate that a backtest from 2014 to 2017 of a system that trades only once a week is really tiny and has very, very little statistical significance?

Do you think that a more statistically significant backtest might reveal some 75% drawdowns, as well?

I'm not belittling your observations in any way - simply offering some context for them, and pointing out that identifying them with hindsight is very much easier than making money from them.

Actually, to be honest, there is one part I'm belittling: the 5% position-sizing. That's "surreal".
  • #4
  • Jul 17, 2017 12:27pm Jul 17, 2017 12:27pm
I think the classic 2% risk rule is more famous among traders here at FF. But whatever works for you.
  • #5
  • Jul 17, 2017 1:13pm Jul 17, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Quickly
{quote}

Would you have been willing and able to trade it with equanimity during the 6-month period that had a 35% drawdown?

Clearly you are not familiar with portfolio diversification.

Do you appreciate that a backtest from 2014 to 2017 of a system that trades only once a week is really tiny and has very, very little statistical significance?

Even with a sample big enough, thats not guarantee that it will work on the future. Actually, I dont give a lot importance to backtesting, I use it just as a reference. Live trading is the only thing that matters.

Do you think that a more statistically significant backtest might reveal some 75% drawdowns, as well?

Why dont you make a little effort, do the backtest ,and let us know?

I'm not belittling your observations in any way - simply offering some context for them, and pointing out that identifying them with hindsight is very much easier than making money from them. Actually, to be honest, there is one part I'm belittling: the 5% position-sizing. That's "surreal"

Then cut the risk in half. Irrelevant comment in this thread.

.
MY suggestion. Stop focusing on backtesting. Use it only as a reference. Use a real account (with small money), grow a pair, and start trading a system until is not longer working.

..Moving on...
  • #6
  • Jul 17, 2017 1:15pm Jul 17, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
I think the classic 2% risk rule is more famous among traders here at FF. But whatever works for you.
I agree. If you are not comfortable with 5%, use the 2% rule. That would have given you a drawdown of only 12% in the last 3.5 years.
  • #7
  • Jul 17, 2017 1:25pm Jul 17, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting cocolizo67
Hi Guys, I have been trading for almost 10 years. Basically trading my own EAs, and some manual trading. I am going to share with you one of my systems. It only takes 5 minutes per week: - Pair: Eur/usd - Chart: daily chart - Stop loss: 45 pips - Risk per trade: 5% Entry rules: - If friday daily candle was red, enter long at the open of next week (In my case Sunday 21:00gmt). - If friday daily candle was green, enter short at the open of next week (In my case Sunday 21:00 gmt) Close the trade at the end of the day (In my case Monday 21:00 gmt)....
Of curiosity how do you get on these systems ? You just see them like patterns or is there many years of knowledge behind reading the market, or how do you do it ??
  • #8
  • Jul 17, 2017 1:50pm Jul 17, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting kimj1973
{quote} Of curiosity how do you get on these systems ? You just see them like patterns or is there many years of knowledge behind reading the market, or how do you do it ??
Hi. You got that right. Years of experience and watching the market. You wont find this on any website, or youtube channel. After some time trading, you start to develop a certain "feeling" of the market, and to see some patterns. I am not suggestin to trade based on "feeling", but that feeling of the market will point you in the right direction to create a good system.
  • #9
  • Jul 17, 2017 2:47pm Jul 17, 2017 2:47pm
Quoting cocolizo67
{quote} Hi. You got that right. Years of experience and watching the market. You wont find this on any website, or youtube channel. After some time trading, you start to develop a certain "feeling" of the market, and to see some patterns. I am not suggestin to trade based on "feeling", but that feeling of the market will point you in the right direction to create a good system.
Hi,
thanks for the feedback. I think I know what you mean with "feeling". I would compare it with a surfer waiting for the right wave to come, everything like the wind has to be just right for having the best option to catch that one wave at the right moment.....
With your 5 minute after NFP system, my thinking was that you know due to NFP the market will be in over sold/under sold condition, and people are making new trades for the next month, and based on this you can decide the trend with higher accuracy than usual...But now with this 1 Week system I will have to re-think this!
Thank you for sharing your systems with us!
  • #10
  • Jul 17, 2017 3:58pm Jul 17, 2017 3:58pm
what is the TP in this system ?
  • #11
  • Jul 17, 2017 4:06pm Jul 17, 2017 4:06pm
Quoting rjngh2005
what is the TP in this system ?
No TP. CLose the trade at the end of the day (In my cas that is Monday 21:00 GMT).
  • #12
  • Jul 17, 2017 4:12pm Jul 17, 2017 4:12pm
Quoting cocolizo67
{quote} No TP. CLose the trade at the end of the day (In my cas that is Monday 21:00 GMT).
thanks
  • #13
  • Jul 17, 2017 4:19pm Jul 17, 2017 4:19pm
nice system... thanks for sharing
  • #14
  • Edited Jul 18, 2017 8:50am Jul 17, 2017 5:55pm | Edited Jul 18, 2017 8:50am
I am updating the backtest results in first post (2010-2017).
  • #15
  • Jul 17, 2017 6:12pm Jul 17, 2017 6:12pm
Interesting back test - anyone have any theories as to why this even works?
  • #16
  • Jul 17, 2017 7:56pm Jul 17, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting Ivanyo
Interesting back test - anyone have any theories as to why this even works?
Trade resumes on Monday, after profit taking on Friday from investors to avoid weekend gap.
  • #17
  • Jul 17, 2017 8:48pm Jul 17, 2017 8:48pm
Being so simple - surely someone can build an EA so we can forward test this?
  • #18
  • Jul 17, 2017 8:55pm Jul 17, 2017 8:55pm
great job, keep go on
  • #19
  • Jul 17, 2017 9:31pm Jul 17, 2017 9:31pm
UPDATE: Backtest 2010-2017
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 12 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Backtest 2010-2017.xlsx   21 KB | 721 downloads
  • #20
  • Jul 17, 2017 10:12pm Jul 17, 2017 10:12pm
Quoting cocolizo67
UPDATE: Backtest 2010-2017 {file} {image}
Just for the sake of completeness, how strict is your back testing?

For instance if the daily candle moved against you 45 pips earlier in the day, but ended up in profit at the end of the day when you close the trade, are you counting this as a stop loss or take profit?

I'm wondering if any of the winners you have on your spreadsheet should have been losers - not criticizing at all, just want a thorough back test to ensure we've considered all potential issues.
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