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  • #101,821
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:23am Jul 15, 2017 6:23am
So you're assuming? I'm confused same point twice, what point? AUD/USD has hit 0.77x about 8 times since April 2016. Once it went above 0.78x (May '16).

The only difference this time is RBA doesnt have ability to use interest rate to reduce. So yes it could be an uncontrollable free run up if US data keeps sucking.

If US raise rates again (Dec?) AU and US rates on parity so the positive swap positions aren't as appealing, I'd expect a lot to pull out at this time. This is inline with pundits who said they expect to see AU fall back first half of 2018. Question is how high will this run last? You know all the people smarter then us know all this so are they going to want to hold long AUD positions?

COT still has most commercial traders short.

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  • #101,822
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:29am Jul 15, 2017 6:29am
Price had touched in april 0.78150 level now it has again touched this level (I am talking about recent price actions from april) now the price is again up above 0.78150

level... Now it is going to be the north move... no matter US rate hikes comes in or what because they wont have any critical impact on this pair... (In my technical and

fundamental opinion)
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,823
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:31am Jul 15, 2017 6:31am
Quoting ArslanHyder
{quote} I was saying that "THIS TIME" they won't interfere much.. Let's see the bullish magic... That is all from my side... PS: When price action tests two times the same point.. when it comes to the same point the third time it smokes it off
Price is only just coming back to the high from April 2016. Does that mean it has to get back to this point a third time to smoke it off? I get that price action is very bullish but agree with redalert that RBA not likely to look at current exchange rate favourably. RSI on daily chart is already overbought. It doesn't tend to stay like that for more than a month or so. Pullback or reversal will come, just a question of when in my opinion. I do however plan for major moves against me - if price gets past 7850 then next major hurdles are round figure of 80c and 81.63 high from May 2015. Reaching either of these is low probability in short to medium term and with major job losses (automotive sector) coming later this year it wouldn't surprise me to see this high the catalyst for an assault on the 7150 double bottom from May & December 2016. Will keep your quote in mind if it gets to that area for a third time!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #101,824
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:31am Jul 15, 2017 6:31am
Quoting dab
{quote} please define "record highs", my charts show 1.1079 was achieved back in 2011ish.
Record highs means watchout for the levels like 7958, 8006, 8168, 8425.. These are all in line to me in future...
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,825
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:33am Jul 15, 2017 6:33am
next week is deciding n defining ....

few key news for AU & NU

17th
CNY GDP
CNY Industrial Production y/y

Tue Jul 18
NZD CPI q/q
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

19th
NZD GDT Price Index


20th
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks


lets c how it goes.....
  • #101,826
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:34am Jul 15, 2017 6:34am
Quoting dab
{quote} Price is only just coming back to the high from April 2016. Does that mean it has to get back to this point a third time to smoke it off? I get that price action is very bullish but agree with redalert that RBA not likely to look at current exchange rate favourably. RSI on daily chart is already overbought. It doesn't tend to stay like that for more than a month or so. Pullback or reversal will come, just a question of when in my opinion. I do however plan for major moves against me - if price gets past 7850 then next major hurdles are round...
In history, if the second time price action fails, the third time it is a success... so this second time is a critical point because many a times price action never goes for a third chance.. it takes it out in the second attempt... We are on a critical bullish point... let's not forget that...
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,827
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:38am Jul 15, 2017 6:38am
Whats your time frame on that? 7958, 8006, 8168, 8425 ... in a week? month? 6 months?
  • #101,828
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:42am Jul 15, 2017 6:42am
Quoting redalert
Whats your time frame on that? 7958, 8006, 8168, 8425 ... in a week? month? 6 months?
multiple TFs... H4 TF for 7958, on D1 8006 and 8425 while on weekly 8168 and on monthly 7830 and 8451
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,829
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:50am Jul 15, 2017 6:50am
Quoting ArslanHyder
{quote} In history, if the second time price action fails, the third time it is a success... so this second time is a critical point because many a times price action never goes for a third chance.. it takes it out in the second attempt... We are on a critical bullish point... let's not forget that...
Except the 7 times it tested 0.77x. I think I understand....
  • #101,830
  • Jul 15, 2017 6:53am Jul 15, 2017 6:53am
Quoting redalert
{quote} Except the 7 times it tested 0.77x. I think I understand....
Now I rest my case to your analysis... Stay green bro.... (still in my opinion we are on a stock pile of cash if we buy this pair)
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,831
  • Jul 15, 2017 7:10am Jul 15, 2017 7:10am
Hi ArslanHyder.
You have a good charts reading, it can only lead to success, good job

All the luck.
The funniest, is that nobody takes me seriously.
  • #101,832
  • Jul 15, 2017 7:24am Jul 15, 2017 7:24am
Quoting FairTrader
Hi ArslanHyder. You have a good charts reading, it can only lead to success, good job All the luck.
Thanks mate... I had been a struggler before I came to this point where I read charts with more confidence... I wish all the traders out there "Luck and Success"..

I have learnt alot from Forex Factory and found many good people and fellows... I will try my level best to help all of you... Stay green

Cheers
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,833
  • Jul 15, 2017 8:21am Jul 15, 2017 8:21am
Hi All, Good Saturday,

Pundits? I thought that meant Bandits or similar...hehehe. Google translate proved me wrong...

So, the bandits are full of Sheit... This is the n-th time I say this, If I had read the charts myself without reading the so called expert analyst's posts I would be in a much better shape, and not struggling with a short that will be underwater as I see it now for a long time (swap rates and margin calls are lots of fun!)

So analysing the charts for worst cases, I spot several times the run up/down (no stop) was about 600 pips from the low/high... In our case the low was 7325 so 79-ish would be limit (which is around the corner) before a correction... of course past movements are just that, no guarantees. And also I am doubting seriously that the correction will be a proper one, but just a 50 pips or so crappy correction down

Personally I am looking for a correction to re enter long, since I agree there is nothing there yet to tell us this is turning bearish, and also this would be a counter trend to my under the water short

I keep reading the expert suckers calling this pair 70 65 and of course, sometime, someday they will be right... I can do this as well: I predict AUD USD at 0.90... wait and see... maybe in 10 years...but I will be right!!!! bloody suckers, brain dead waste of life

So what is your story? please share... I may learn more from you than the bandit/pundits
  • #101,834
  • Jul 15, 2017 8:36am Jul 15, 2017 8:36am
Could be another fake out
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #101,835
  • Jul 15, 2017 2:51pm Jul 15, 2017 2:51pm
Im short on this, I think a retrace is more likely than further north at the moment, however, I am aware of the bullish weekly close etc, and do Not rule out further movement north, hence my stoploss is set @ 0.7871 TP down at 0.7500 but I might close out earlier if I get the opportunity- and feel the need to do so. I might also move my TP even lower and give this one some time to head lower, but swap is killer and usd strength seems rather optimistic especially after fridays bad data, will see how things develop and act accordingly.

Cheers
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  • #101,836
  • Jul 15, 2017 3:43pm Jul 15, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting FxProsper
Im short on this, I think a retrace is more likely than further north at the moment, however, I am aware of the bullish weekly close etc, and do Not rule out further movement north, hence my stoploss is set @ 0.7871 TP down at 0.7500 but I might close out earlier if I get the opportunity- and feel the need to do so. I might also move my TP even lower and give this one some time to head lower, but swap is killer and usd strength seems rather optimistic especially after fridays bad data, will see how things develop and act accordingly. Cheers {image}...
You must have a concrete analysis if you are going to do so on this pair...All the best...
Markets are Irrational
  • #101,837
  • Jul 15, 2017 4:20pm Jul 15, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting ArslanHyder
{quote} You must have a concrete analysis if you are going to do so on this pair...All the best...
You talk very strange, I struggle to understand what you are trying to say, be a little more specific and precise please, so this aspie can understand like you running apple and I run windows it seems. Btw, i just did some complimentary mumbling with my trade post that wasnt my analysis yeah, I owe no one a analysis, just sharing my general view on it, and my position. Good luck to you to if you have a position on AU, long or short.

Cheers
  • #101,838
  • Jul 15, 2017 4:45pm Jul 15, 2017 4:45pm
"Recognition of a significantly weaker profile for the AUD is not expected to gather momentum until the first half of 2018," Mr Evans said. Westpac sees a 26 per cent fall in the bulk commodity index, including a 30 price price fall in the iron ore price, reflecting "a marked slowdown in Chinese industrial demand".

Aussie dollar surges to two-year high - The Sydney Morning Herald
https://apple.news/AQfSgzALvQWKJZtpggfAF6A
  • #101,839
  • Jul 16, 2017 4:03am Jul 16, 2017 4:03am
Sensitive area...!!!
Great sell...
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  • #101,840
  • Jul 16, 2017 4:20am Jul 16, 2017 4:20am
Praying for a Sunday gap down tomorrow when market opens! Hahaha
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