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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #25,561
  • Jul 14, 2017 7:28am Jul 14, 2017 7:28am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Not sure I understand your post. You wanted to short GBP/JPY at 145.266?
Had a Sell Stop that shouldn't have hit at 145.266 PA only went to 145.267... but of course it did on one of my accounts.
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #25,562
  • Jul 14, 2017 7:37am Jul 14, 2017 7:37am
Pfff recovered from a 80% drawdown after news hit, expected it to be a non event, but I definitely learned my lesson.

Expect more upside, market already forgot about the news, but now see a positive move in GBP as good news. Expect GOLD/YEN to drop some more today after setting strong moves up after news hit.
  • #25,563
  • Jul 14, 2017 7:47am Jul 14, 2017 7:47am
Quoting Quickiepip
{quote} Seems like it was a trap....
yes but happy i got some pips. currently in another zone of interest
It is not over until I win
  • #25,564
  • Jul 14, 2017 8:04am Jul 14, 2017 8:04am
Quoting karasinga
{quote} yes but happy i got some pips. currently in another zone of interest
watching zone between 147.775 and 147.496.
It is not over until I win
  • #25,565
  • Jul 14, 2017 1:02pm Jul 14, 2017 1:02pm
Quoting karasinga
{quote} watching zone between 147.775 and 147.496.
in the zone...watching while sitting on my hands
It is not over until I win
  • #25,566
  • Jul 14, 2017 1:40pm Jul 14, 2017 1:40pm
Quoting Quickiepip
{quote} Had a Sell Stop that shouldn't have hit at 145.266 PA only went to 145.267... but of course it did on one of my accounts.
I see.

And you believe your broker triggered your sell stop order to take your money?
  • #25,567
  • Jul 14, 2017 1:50pm Jul 14, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting copi88
Say 1000 buyers walk into a car auction all wanting to buy but the dealer has zero stock. How can he put his price up? He has nothing to sell.
Your example is inappropriate because if there is nothing to sell then there is no need for buyers or sellers in the first place, period.

Quoting copi88
Even if there where 1000 buy limit orders in and 50 sell limit orders placed, price will not move.
Again, no.

There is ALWAYS a demand for currencies, GBP/JPY or whatever.

If the buying pressure exceeds the selling pressure then the price has nowhere to go but UP, end of story and case closed.

An uptrend is simply the result of excessive buying pressure, where buyers continuously bid the price up to entice sellers to sell.
  • #25,568
  • Jul 14, 2017 1:59pm Jul 14, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Cheers mate. Looking at this i am still hopefull for a 115.x UJ and 148.xx for GJ.
Hope keeps us alive. ☺
  • #25,569
  • Jul 14, 2017 3:16pm Jul 14, 2017 3:16pm
Trading GBP/JPY is not for beginners.

I see so many gamblers on this thread.

You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #25,570
  • Jul 14, 2017 3:25pm Jul 14, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting RondaRousey
If you are not up at least 400 pips in the last 5 days for GBP/JPY, you don't know what you are doing.
A fool spends his time competing against other people, a wise man only competes with himself.
  • #25,571
  • Jul 14, 2017 4:16pm Jul 14, 2017 4:16pm
Quoting RondaRousey
Trading is the biggest competition in the world.
True, but the real competition is within ourselves.

More specifically, if the trader cannot master his own emotions (fear and greed) and stay disciplined 100% of the time he will never make it in this business.

Trading is about 90% psychology, and 10% technical.
  • #25,572
  • Jul 14, 2017 10:40pm Jul 14, 2017 10:40pm
nice...
  • #25,573
  • Edited 5:15am Jul 15, 2017 1:17am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Your example is inappropriate because if there is nothing to sell then there is no need for buyers or sellers in the first place, period. {quote}


Again, no. There is ALWAYS a demand for currencies, GBP/JPY or whatever. If the buying pressure exceeds the selling pressure then the price has nowhere to go but UP, end of story and case closed. An uptrend is simply the result of excessive buying pressure, where buyers continuously bid the price up to entice sellers to sell.

It is appropriate because this is the scenario we are talking about. Has there never been demand for something with no supply of it? All I am doing here is using a hypothetical situation to describe how an auction works.

Your example is not the scenario we are talking about and so this is not appropriate for this discussion. No one here is disputing this scenario of when buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure that price will go up. We are all agreed here.

My scenario example (unlikely in the currency markets) of when there are 1000 buyers and they are only willing to pay 500 for something and there are 10 sellers only willing to sell at 600 that price will not move is correct. A willing buyer has to meet a willing seller in the market for price to tick up to 600 or down to 500. In this case the bid and the ask price are stuck at 500 and 600 and nothing will happen. The likely outcome in this case is that the buyers will soon find out that there are 1000 of them and only 10 of the sellers and will step up. Sellers will sense the demand and start pulling their prices higher.

This does / did happen in the forex markets and hence the role of the market maker was created to facilitate trade between parties and move price to where buyers and sellers are willing to trade. The marker maker is paid for this role. Even now sometimes you will have one market maker buying and selling to another market maker in the currency markets and this is called a Market Makers auction and it will look like price waffling around inside a narrow range.

This is why price will move from one high volume node to another as the market maker is paid via the churn. The more two way volume they can generate the more money they make. Once volume starts to dry up in an area they will move the market to the next area of liquidity.
This is why its important to understand the market makers or the liquidity providers model and supply and demand through volume analysis.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #25,574
  • Jul 15, 2017 11:27am Jul 15, 2017 11:27am
Quoting copi88
. Sellers will sense the demand and start pulling their prices higher.
Isn't that precisely what I posted earlier?

First you said the price won't move and now you are saying it will move (which is true of course), so I guess we are back to square one.
  • #25,575
  • Edited 10:14pm Jul 15, 2017 9:05pm | Edited 10:14pm
My small notes for beginner , next week I go as full time trader.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...90749&page=115
========================================
10 years study all type of indicators , all type of trading system, all type of price action , all type of commercial forex trading systems ,
at last found 99.9% are bullshit , from starting point build in indicators towards complex indicators , and last go back to starting point again .....cry me
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #25,576
  • Jul 15, 2017 11:30pm Jul 15, 2017 11:30pm
Quoting edmun1388
My small notes for beginner , next week I go as full time trader. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...90749&page=115 ======================================== 10 years study all type of indicators , all type of trading system, all type of price action , all type of commercial forex trading systems , at last found 99.9% are bullshit , from starting point build in indicators towards complex indicators , and last go back to starting point again .....cry me
Nice work but you still use too many indicators.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #25,577
  • Jul 16, 2017 1:06am Jul 16, 2017 1:06am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Nice work but you still use too many indicators.
Yes, those extra indicator is use to detect time entry [M15 ] , just like delta phenomenon & astro strategy, so I can know when to trade
and when I can go out shopping/smoking/take beer etc .
M15 - 6 indicators
M5- 2
M1 - 3
H4 & M30 - 3
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #25,578
  • Jul 16, 2017 1:23am Jul 16, 2017 1:23am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Isn't that precisely what I posted earlier? First you said the price won't move and now you are saying it will move (which is true of course), so I guess we are back to square one.
Two scenarios one with no sellers and one with.... two different outcomes.

Have not changed anything.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #25,579
  • Jul 16, 2017 5:33am Jul 16, 2017 5:33am
Quoting copi88
{quote} Two scenarios one with no sellers and one with.... two different outcomes. Have not changed anything.
Here is a friendly neutral suggestion, why dont we can this duscussion, because its turning into " i say you say" and not going anywhere.
How about you lot focus on telling / teaching us about the fact that initially GJ followed Uj to fall and when nyse opened it followed GU and it seems to go to 148.00. This cross is going mental. I see a fall at 148.xx what say u lot..??
  • #25,580
  • Jul 16, 2017 9:46am Jul 16, 2017 9:46am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Here is a friendly neutral suggestion, why dont we can this duscussion, because its turning into " i say you say" and not going anywhere. How about you lot focus on telling / teaching us about the fact that initially GJ followed Uj to fall and when nyse opened it followed GU and it seems to go to 148.00. This cross is going mental. I see a fall at 148.xx what say u lot..??
I talked about this subject on the other GJ thread.

As GJ is priced by using GU and UJ it all depends where the volume of trade is coming into which pair (ie which pair is driving the market) As the UJ market is roughly twice the size of the GU market the Yen dominates the GJ relationship.

From the graph below you can see that GJ is more closely correlated to UJ than GU.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tHUmrq0.png Size: 213 KB


Now why UJ sold off like that has all to do the negative US CPI numbers on Friday which effect interest rate expectations which effect the bond market with effects the dollar.
Boxing clever since 76.
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