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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

  • #1,581
  • Jul 11, 2017 1:38pm Jul 11, 2017 1:38pm
Wasn't supposed to post any more analysis today but can't help it.

Sometimes these innocuous looking little levels, especially when they turn and break recent highs after a down move can precipitate a (long in this case) retrace. Will keep an eye on it until the missus forces me to do the washing up.

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  • #1,582
  • Edited 11:46pm Jul 11, 2017 11:13pm | Edited 11:46pm
EurAud M1, will create new demand area around BRL?
Update: long at 1.49991 closed at 1.50078, just below daily open level
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Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,583
  • Jul 12, 2017 2:05am Jul 12, 2017 2:05am
AUDUSD 15M
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  • #1,584
  • Jul 12, 2017 2:16am Jul 12, 2017 2:16am
Quoting simond2002
Wasn't supposed to post any more analysis today but can't help it. Sometimes these innocuous looking little levels, especially when they turn and break recent highs after a down move can precipitate a (long in this case) retrace. Will keep an eye on it until the missus forces me to do the washing up. {image}
Looks like Asia enjoyed a nice trading session. A few long pips up to the supply at the top of that flag then classic bearish PA for a nice continuation down.

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  • #1,585
  • Jul 12, 2017 9:36am Jul 12, 2017 9:36am
Quoting simond2002
On your chart I've added another view. The black line across the image I've added is against the recent daily swing low (the small yellow line in the daily picture) and needs to be considered for intraday PA. Price may react there on lower TFs.
Patience is the hardest part of our game.

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  • #1,586
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:00am Jul 12, 2017 10:00am
Quoting shs0404
AUDUSD 15M {image}
AUDUSD 15M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,587
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:02am Jul 12, 2017 10:02am
Quoting shs0404
{quote} AUDUSD 15M {image}
new question simond

is that a broken supply(only small wicks higher) ?
  • #1,588
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:09am Jul 12, 2017 10:09am
Quoting shs0404
{quote} new question simond is that a broken supply(only small wicks higher) ?
It's actually a fresh M15 supply. I'm watching it here as well, although I'll need to see some pretty strong bearish PA before selling it.

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  • #1,589
  • Edited 8:10pm Jul 12, 2017 7:58pm | Edited 8:10pm
GbpJpy M5 clean SD and reaction
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Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,590
  • Jul 13, 2017 2:30am Jul 13, 2017 2:30am
Quoting wiserltz
GbpJpy M5 clean SD and reaction {image}
Take a look at this post. It's worth remarking out your chart again. Also add some SR for direction - only needs one extra line on your chart.
  • #1,591
  • Edited 5:10am Jul 13, 2017 4:52am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Take a look at this post. It's worth remarking out your chart again. Also add some SR for direction - only needs one extra line on your chart.
I have read the post, and THOUGHT I understand it.............

But only when I trade myself and re-read the post again, it know i was wrong

Thanks again

UPDATE: S/D needs whipsaw inside the area, because institution need accumulate within it
When price touches S/D again, S/D is weaker, and turns into S/R
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,592
  • Jul 13, 2017 7:05am Jul 13, 2017 7:05am
One more winning trade
EURUSD 15M
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  • #1,593
  • Jul 15, 2017 12:50pm Jul 15, 2017 12:50pm
Quoting shs0404
{quote} in major SR - SD is our base , but we need to have filter to be selective. - PA is our trigger in specific zones . - BRL is the key levels , and its the axis in relation to SD - SR is a full cycle strategy , this cycle is available and repeated faster on low time frames (such as 15,5,1M). my self - I'll change the broker for the high spred and bad support. - for low time frame I'll try to do one click trade , rather than play with the ask & bid lines. - I have a PDF soft copy to the important information given by simond ( SR x SD ).

Update my plan

  1. Strategy SD + SR .
  2. Focus on 2 pares ( AUDUSD + EURUSD ) to avoid the dispersion.
  3. Over view D1,H1 TFs than trade on 15M (suitable for me ).
  4. Patience and patience & patience .
  5. A book without a master cause a disaster .


How is it?

  • #1,594
  • Jul 15, 2017 12:52pm Jul 15, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting shs0404
{quote} ok I got that its a cruel summer
by the way I bout an A/C to cool it

I'll never give up
  • #1,595
  • Jul 15, 2017 1:31pm Jul 15, 2017 1:31pm
Lol. The language barrier makes this all pretty funny. I just got myself a new monitor. Love at first sight.

Next up is a subscription to tradingview
  • #1,596
  • Jul 15, 2017 2:28pm Jul 15, 2017 2:28pm
Quoting shs0404
{quote} Update my plan Strategy SD + SR . Focus on 2 pares ( AUDUSD + EURUSD ) to avoid the dispersion. Over view D1,H1 TFs than trade on 15M (suitable for me ). Patience and patience & patience . A book without a master cause a disaster . How is it?
Plan looks good. I'm glad you bought the A/C by the way.

Your strategy is SD + SR. It's important to emphasise again how crucial it is to able to articulate - i.e. say in words - what SD and SR actually relate to on a price chart. To be able to properly describe SD + SR in words forms the root of our understanding, which in the end enables us to take an informed action when trading.

It's also important again to emphasise "direction". The market can be going up, going down, or direction can be changing (we know it can be range-bound too but being so will, in the end, feed into the context of the overall picture - up, down, changing). On that basis, if you include an analysis of "direction" on all your charts from now on, it should help greatly inform your trading decision.

Patience is good. But we MUST know what we are being patient for. Think carefully about that statement.

If you're not keeping a journal of some sort then you're not building a facility for yourself to remember certain situations. It can be surprising how often a situation in the market will look familiar (although not that surprising when you think that the market can only go up, down, or changing). In these situations, having a visual historical reference with some typewritten notes can be a good thing to fall back on. It is also good "brain-training".

Finally, at this stage I can't emphasise how important it is to look back over the trading week and analyse your charts to see where you could have taken a trade. I used to do this all the time - still do sometimes - and it's remarkable how it can help focus the mind during the upcoming trading sessions. In terms of SD + SR there's really only a few things that the market can do:

 

  1. Double top
  2. Double bottom
  3. Reversal
  4. Continuation

If you start analysing the trades that you could have taken and then file annotated screen grabs into one of the four categories above it is going to help focus your mind. For example, the AUDUSD M15 fresh supply zone that you posted some time this week, seemed to be in anticipation of a Double Top forming. That didn't happen, however, some time later there was a trade. You should be analysing that chart, assessing and articulating how, where and why the opportunity setup then make a fully annotated screen-grab and file it away in the appropriate place. This kind of pedantic application is the only way. It also sets a framework for discipline.

  • #1,597
  • Jul 18, 2017 2:16am Jul 18, 2017 2:16am
If I want to improve my analyzing and trading I have to now why I win and why I lose.
Simply Mistakes = lessons

yesterday I had 2 losing trades

1-AUDUSD 15M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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in this trade the mistakes is

  1. up normal target or long distance target (SR3) .
  2. wrong SL shifting(SL2) .

---------------------------------------------

2- EURUSD 15M

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The mistake at the higher TF
EURUSD D1
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shorting opposite long sign at higher TF

-------------------------------------------------
  • #1,598
  • Jul 18, 2017 2:36am Jul 18, 2017 2:36am
Quoting shs0404
I have to now why I win and why I lose.
Regardless of S/L management these are contra-trend trades. Until you do the work to understand "direction" and mark "direction" out on your charts the problem will only get worse.
  • #1,599
  • Jul 18, 2017 2:54am Jul 18, 2017 2:54am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Regardless of S/L management these are contra-trend trades. Until you do the work to understand "direction" and mark "direction" out on your charts the problem will only get worse.
OK its clear that is contra-trade
but the reason to short is we are at high of the curve
  • #1,600
  • Jul 18, 2017 4:39am Jul 18, 2017 4:39am
Quoting shs0404
{quote} OK its clear that is contra-trade but the reason to short is we are at high of the curve
Which curve?
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