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  • #141
  • Edited 3:56pm Jul 9, 2017 3:24pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting jchiogna1
I took the Jarratt Davis course as well but didn't seem to get as much out of it as you did.It was a good course in general. I'll revisit the Steve Ward material again but would like to know what specifically in it made a difference for you. Regarding Friday's data, I found the US data a bit conflicting so I opted for a GBPCAD short. This took into account that the Canadian employment data was positive and way beyond what was expected plus the fact that the recent GBP manufacturing production data was fairly weak: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=jul7.2017...

Its funny after doing Jarratt's course - everyone is left on their own, apart from further sales material hitting hitting their inboxes every other week
I think that's sad as sometimes its good to bounce ideas around- but there is no group to do that with-
By the way feel free to put down any ideas or views on this thread on forth-coming events

Anyway getting on to Ward - its been a long time since I read the book - but he talks a lot about "being prepared" - and that is the number one thing for me.
Also over-trading was an issue for me and it sorted me out, as I focus now on what event will give me a decent risk/reward
This involves looking at fundamentals, doing loads of research, looking at price action (support/resistance, pivots, wyckoff)
Knowing what is priced in- and by how much
It took about a year for it to finally click.
I still make some silly errors every now and then- but I know what to focus on.

Good call on GBPCAD by the way
  • #142
  • Jul 9, 2017 9:03pm Jul 9, 2017 9:03pm
On Wednesday it is Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
If they increase rate I wouldn't trade because it is a huge expectation for rate increase and CAD is overbought.
If they keep rate unchanged I would short CAD. What do you think Fader?
  • #143
  • Edited 6:50am Jul 10, 2017 4:38am | Edited 6:50am
Quoting zosoforever
On Wednesday it is Bank of Canada interest rate decision. If they increase rate I wouldn't trade because it is a huge expectation for rate increase and CAD is overbought. If they keep rate unchanged I would short CAD. What do you think Fader?
Hi

BOC do not want to "slam on the brakes" - they want a general easing according the Wilkins
There has been some lagged effects of excess supply in recent quarters
There is still slack in the economy

Inflation: 1.3%- big drop from April's 1.6%-
Expected to reach 2% in 1st qtr of 2018
Employment is strong
Wage growth is moderate
Exports are flat

Growth;
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70630a-eng.htm

Business expectations (30 June)

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/06/bos-summer-2017/

The interesting thing is that the business comunity expects lower inflation

"Despite strong forward-looking indicators of business activity, survey results point to only modest growth in future input and output prices. Inflation expectations edged down and are concentrated in the lower half of the Banks inflation-control range"

This is Poloz's most recent statement following the dip in CPI in May (4th July)

http://www.bnn.ca/boc-rate-hike-spec...paper-1.796006

He is clearly basing hikes based on what inflation will be in the future rather than what it is now.
"easing off the accelerator is appropriate".

The hike will happen before 1st qtr of 2018 and most probably this month

But the rhetoric is not aggressive from either Wilkins or Poloz

Looking at inflation;

  1. business does not expect inflation to rise- and to be on the lower end
  2. we have already had a drop to 1.3%
  3. and obviously Wikins and Poloz's tone is one of easing slowly.

But growth appears to me to be the main thing that the BOC are looking at, to see what inflation is likley to be in the future
And its doing well- especially in the services section.
Slack appears to be being absorbed

Will there be two hikes - that is the question.
Think that they will say that they are data dependant- but lets see that the statement says

But it is the tone that matters, Poloz has ackowledged the softer inflation figures - but said he is looking to see what inflation will be in 12-24 months.

I was thinking that he will be slighly more dovish (in light of recent CPI figures), but would not be surprised to see a more neutral tone.

Some of the banks are expecting a more dovish tone from Poloz.

If we get a decent pull back lets see

  • #144
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:36am Jul 10, 2017 6:36am
Here is a chart I have marked up on the CADJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 75 KB
  • #145
  • Jul 10, 2017 11:34am Jul 10, 2017 11:34am
Thank you Fader for really detailed explanation about CAD. I will shorten it if they leave rate unchanged. If they increase I will first read the statement and try to understand tone and make decision.
This week is quiet and second interesting day may be Friday's data from US (CPI, retail sales). Is the main question inflation (CPI)? Low inflation is the main obstacle and worry for FED in order to increase the rate. Price should react on the data in any case. Do you have any plans to trade this?
  • #146
  • Jul 10, 2017 2:17pm Jul 10, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting zosoforever
Thank you Fader for really detailed explanation about CAD. I will shorten it if they leave rate unchanged. If they increase I will first read the statement and try to understand tone and make decision. This week is quiet and second interesting day may be Friday's data from US (CPI, retail sales). Is the main question inflation (CPI)? Low inflation is the main obstacle and worry for FED in order to increase the rate. Price should react on the data in any case. Do you have any plans to trade this?
Hi
You are trading the right way
The hike is pretty much priced in. I think it's 88%
If the statement is dovish e.g.says that's it. The CAD is in trouble
If he is slightly more hawkish than expected eg possible further removal of monetary stimulus in the comming months. This should push the CAD up. As its 50/50 if there will be two hikes.
If he is more lets wait and see. Think the markets would see that as dovish.

In respect of CPI yes this is important. Yellen at the moment is looking at employment figures. Something called the Phillips curve
And I will be trading it.
I get on the first pull back on a one minute. Assuming there is a large beat or large miss from expected.
Otherwise I will stand aside.
  • #147
  • Jul 11, 2017 9:36am Jul 11, 2017 9:36am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Hi You are trading the right way The hike is pretty much priced in. I think it's 88% If the statement is dovish e.g.says that's it. The CAD is in trouble If he is slightly more hawkish than expected eg possible further removal of monetary stimulus in the comming months. This should push the CAD up. As its 50/50 if there will be two hikes. If he is more lets wait and see. Think the markets would see that as dovish. In respect of CPI yes this is important. Yellen at the moment is looking at employment figures. Something called the Phillips...
Just because of Phillips curve we had such ups and downs on last NFP. As per Phillips curve unemployment and inflation are going into opposite directions. Low unemployment should cause lack of work force which will increase wages and ultimately prices/inflation which is main goal for FED. On Friday NFP came out very good and first set of traders went long on USD. But unemployment came out increased which is lowering chances to increase inflation. On top of that wages rises less than expected. These two things are at the moment more important and second set of traders then started shorting USD.
We really have to think fast and take all date into consideration in order to take right direction. And that's not easy in short period of time including to read statement.
On next Friday CPI is much more important than Retail Sales because low inflation prevents FED to hike interest rate. I expect big move (unless data is in line with expectation) and I will try to trade the same way as you mentioned.
  • #148
  • Jul 11, 2017 11:34am Jul 11, 2017 11:34am
Hi
Perhaps consider demo trading the BOC event
Some of the banks think he wont hike. So there is a bit of uncertainty on all this. This will create volatility.
There is also a press conference later where Poloz will shed more light on his decision

Also the event could carry over to the next session when it opens and perhaps when London opens.
Will need to see what has happened previously

US CPI should be a good trade.
  • #149
  • Jul 12, 2017 9:26am Jul 12, 2017 9:26am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Hi BOC do not want to "slam on the brakes" - they want a general easing according the Wilkins There has been some lagged effects of excess supply in recent quarters There is still slack in the economy Inflation: 1.3%- big drop from April's 1.6%- Expected to reach 2% in 1st qtr of 2018 Employment is strong Wage growth is moderate Exports are flat Growth; http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70630a-eng.htm Business expectations (30 June) http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/06/bos-summer-2017/ The interesting...
Have absolutely cleaned up on CADJPY.
To be honest I was more hawkish, but when every single bank are saying dovish or no hike what do you do.
This is what weighed so heavily in sentiment going into the event.Only in the last 30 minutes did things change
The only one remotely near was BOA Merrill Lynch who were neutral. Everyone was saying they were going to sell the news.
The critic in me says they dumped it it rally it
Yellen speech weighed on it initally.
Zoso hope you were on some of this there was plenty of time to read the statement

When you look at the timeline on this. Nothing had changed since Poloz last interview except strong employment figures.

Good luck all
  • #150
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:35am Jul 12, 2017 10:35am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Have absolutely cleaned up on CADJPY. To be honest I was more hawkish, but when every single bank are saying dovish or no hike what do you do. This is what weighed so heavily in sentiment going into the event.Only in the last 30 minutes did things change The only one remotely near was BOA Merrill Lynch who were neutral. Everyone was saying they were going to sell the news. The critic in me says they dumped it it rally it Yellen speech weighed on it initally. Zoso hope you were on some of this there was plenty of time to read the statement...
I didn't trade because this increase met expectations and reaction could've been unexpected. I am not experienced, like you, to figure out sentiment.
  • #151
  • Jul 12, 2017 11:30am Jul 12, 2017 11:30am
Quoting zosoforever
{quote} I didn't trade because this increase met expectations and reaction could've been unexpected. I am not experienced, like you, to figure out sentiment.
That's ok.
There is a saying "when in doubt stay out".
I do a lot of research on these events. Not everything I put on a public forum.

The target was the statement. Everyone was thinking that they should sell the news.

But when the monetary policy statement came out. It was talking about how great the economy was. And that there will be another hike next year based on the factors that affect CPI. Also he talks about closing the output earlier than was predicted and absorption of slack. This was mentioned in the most recent business survey.
This will push inflation to 2% by next year and is their target figure.

I won't be posting here for a while.

Good luck with your trading
  • #152
  • Jul 29, 2017 5:19pm Jul 29, 2017 5:19pm
Looking ahead to Thursday iro the BOE rate decision

Sentiment wise I was thinking that the BOE might hike. Unemployment has dropped further (spare capacity being eroded)

But his most recent speech (28 June) Carney said "Moreover, with domestic inflationary pressures, particularly wages and unit labour costs, still subdued, it was appropriate to leave the policy stance unchanged at that time. "
This was telling - as wage inflation has dropped further and m/m CPI has dropped.
Additionally, the type of inflation that the UK has is purely down to fall in the pound
Also GDP figures hardly excited, and the IMF has downgraded its growth assessment of the UK.

Looking through the list of members of the MPC
Haldane think could well vote for a hike (especially after his most recent speech).
Saunders will definitely vote for a hike- way ahead of the curve
Not too sure about Mcafferty voting for a hike again this time though
Broadbent, Vileghe, Cunliffe don't think will vote for a hike
Tenreyro not sure - was known as a dove
Carney- think he won't hike on balance, based on the most recent speech and economic releases
  • #154
  • Jul 29, 2017 5:47pm Jul 29, 2017 5:47pm
Quoting Pvmforex
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  • #155
  • Aug 3, 2017 7:16am Aug 3, 2017 7:16am
Actually got in at the top of the move.
Bank re iterates issue over GDP
That's what really did it.
6-2 helped as well
  • #156
  • Aug 3, 2017 12:44pm Aug 3, 2017 12:44pm
Looking at my view think I need to factor in central bankers personalities into the equation
  • #157
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:58pm Aug 3, 2017 6:58pm
I only nabbed 13 pips out of a possible 60 pip move on the EURGBP long this morning. Why do I keep getting out so soon when I know there's potential to the upside? Guess I should review the psychology books you mentioned. Do you find mindfulness really works?

On to the next trade. Any insight into the NFP tomorrow? I suspect tomorrow the market will pay closer attention to wage growth as opposed to job growth. Without a substantial increase in hourly earnings, there's not as much hope for inflation and therefore future rate hikes. I'll long the Euro if the wage growth comes in less than expected but I don't know how much upside the EURUSD has left. If the wage report comes in above the expected I'll short the GBPUSD with the pound still being weak on the unfulfilled change in bank rate votes yesterday.
  • #158
  • Aug 3, 2017 7:03pm Aug 3, 2017 7:03pm
Quoting jchiogna1
I only nabbed 13 pips out of a possible 60 pip move on the EURGBP long this morning. Why do I keep getting out so soon when I know there's potential to the upside?
I would actually argue that to be a successful trade. To each his own.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #159
  • Aug 4, 2017 1:49am Aug 4, 2017 1:49am
Quoting jchiogna1
I only nabbed 13 pips out of a possible 60 pip move on the EURGBP long this morning. Why do I keep getting out so soon when I know there's potential to the upside? Guess I should review the psychology books you mentioned. Do you find mindfulness really works? On to the next trade. Any insight into the NFP tomorrow? I suspect tomorrow the market will pay closer attention to wage growth as opposed to job growth. Without a substantial increase in hourly earnings, there's not as much hope for inflation and therefore future rate hikes. I'll long the...

The market drives towards orders
Sometimes those orders get taken out
Sometimes the orders absorb all of the supply or demand
Have an idea of what level the market is likely to go to based on what is actually driving the market
Yesterday on GBPUSD the market spiked to R1 got some orders and then dropped to S3
Research will help, but after a while you will be able to judge it.
If we get any further rallies think traders will be looking to short it. Can't see it till next week as the MPC statement was not that great in the medium term
Regarding NFP wait for a large beat or miss on figures and get on the first pullback
Wages will be important.
Hope this helps
  • #160
  • Aug 5, 2017 12:35pm Aug 5, 2017 12:35pm
This is going to be my last post on Forex Factory.

I will still be trading, but I don't get any information from the people that post on FF.

No one does any research- its all about using indicators or price action to determine if you should put your money down on a trade.
I just regard that putting my cash in the hands of lady luck

Do you honestly think that Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank trade the way that people do on here
These banks spend millions on research and on the best news feeds. DB actually owns a news group

I trade completely differently to 99% of the people on here - so really there is no point on me being here

Don't be sad though, I have taken about 6 or 7 trades this month and have 600 pips with no loss

Good Luck all

Fader123
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