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Share your Worst performing martingale EA will turn into a win

  • #21
  • Jul 12, 2017 5:17am Jul 12, 2017 5:17am
Quoting hanover
Martingale is a staking system, not a trading system. The problem with martingale is that, no matter what trading system (entries/exits) you use, you'll eventually reach a situation where you have a losing sequence of several trades, and martingale makes if more difficult -- impossible, if the sequence lasts long enough -- to recover, because the drawdown is necessarily greater, due to the bigger position sizes (1+2+4+8+16+....., and even 1+2+3+4+5+......, rapidly outpaces 1+1+1+1+1......). Price movement is quasi-random, and if you trade for long...
i think there is 2 ways to handle martingale with some success.
1. trade small, smaller than you initially think is small enough. then rinse-repeat-compound, it will still add up fast enough.
2. to counter the unfavorable sequences that inevitable come, best to use a %equity drawdown STOP! if the % isnt overly large, your usual trading activity will be able to recover it quickly enough. important that it is neither too tight, and they wont be very common events. point #1, the right position sizes should help with this.

in the end, with certain parameters, you can say you have a trading system, the same just as much as risking 1% equity on a R:R 3 trading systemcan be considered a betting system.
of course, in both "systems" crucial to have some sort of edge to use for entry point/initial entry point.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #22
  • Jul 12, 2017 5:28am Jul 12, 2017 5:28am
Quoting profitfarmer
i think there is 2 ways to handle martingale with some success.......
I don't want to get into a lengthy debate, hence I'll simply say that I respectfully disagree, and leave it at that. Over the years I've written many posts explaining my math-based views on martingale (here is one recent example), and I don't have the stamina to re-type all of this info, every time a new martingale thread appears.
  • #23
  • Jul 12, 2017 5:33am Jul 12, 2017 5:33am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I don't want to get into a lengthy debate, hence I'll simply say that I respectfully disagree, and leave it at that. Over the years I've written many posts explaining my math-based views on martingale, and I don't have the stamina to re-type all of this info, every time a new martingale thread appears.
thanks for the respectful opinion, just the same, i respectfully keep mine, experience based.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #24
  • Edited 7:01am Jul 12, 2017 6:05am | Edited 7:01am
Here is my experience on using Martingale based EA, over 14 months now, and still running.
Not saying, it is the best, rather enough for my living.

  1. Trade small?
    How small is small?
    Martingale required very strict calculated risk, and account leverage play a major role.
  2. Every pair have different characteristic, stick to only one, and master that pair with martingale system best setting.

i reserve my comments on pro/con for martingale system.
if you can make money (over a reasonable period of time), go for it.
The Martingale system wasn't created yesterday. you just have to find the tune.

  • #25
  • Jul 12, 2017 2:55pm Jul 12, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} With respect, that's an extraordinary claim. If I understand correctly, you have a "simple system", that nobody else -- including the world's top institutional traders, math PhDs, finance professors, etc etc -- can possibly have thought of, and it's going to bring the whole interbank market down? In my world, extraordinary claims require some tangible evidence, if they're to be taken seriously. A myfxbook showing several months' worth of consistent profit would at least represent some kind of a starting point.
look at a chart. any chart. any pair. i guarantee you, it is right in front of your eyes. i swear in my two kids. you are looking at it the very moment you do open a chart...

try not to think complicated. think only, you do not know the direction. you have to catch it by opening both buy and sell trades. one of the sides will... that is part 1: direction catching with hedging.

part 2 is to know how exactly to open the hedge trades. in my opinion, if you want to do it right, there is only one specific way of doing it. that i leave for you to figure it out on your own... part 2 is mastering the hedge and might not be as simple as part 1, but everyone can do it...

think simple or you will fail...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #26
  • Jul 12, 2017 6:52pm Jul 12, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
look at a chart. any chart. any pair......try not to think complicated.. ... think simple or you will fail...
OK, so at point A in time, a trader doesn't know the direction, so he opens both buy and sell orders. Then a little later, at point B in time, he sees which direction price is moving, so he closes one of the orders, leaving himself with either a buy order or a sell order still open.

Now here is another trader. At point A, he doesn't know the direction, so he does nothing. At point B, he also sees the direction, and simply opens a buy or a sell order.

How is this any different (apart from the fact that the first trader has paid more in br0ker costs)? Sorry, but I just can't see it. You advise me to keep it simple; I don't believe I can think any more simply than that.
  • #27
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:03pm Jul 12, 2017 10:03pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} OK, so at point A in time, a trader doesn't know the direction, so he opens both buy and sell orders. Then a little later, at point B in time, he sees which direction price is moving, so he closes one of the orders, leaving himself with either a buy order or a sell order still open. Now here is another trader. At point A, he doesn't know the direction, so he does nothing. At point B, he also sees the direction, and simply opens a buy or a sell order. How is this any different (apart from the fact that the first trader has paid more in br0ker...
I could not find a way to make it work with one direction net opened orders, as you are suggesting it. When the direction is unknown, opening one direction orders simply does not work at times the rate turns around...

It is impossible to predict accurately. Every single time. Once a hobby trader starts trying this - let her/him kiss her/his money good bye...

On the other side, the chart is doing it for free. One has no other business. Just open in both directions, based on what the chart is offering...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #28
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:11pm Jul 12, 2017 10:11pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote}One has no other business. Just open in both directions, based on what the chart is offering...
Dear MZ,

I believe in what you say, could you give us example, for instance : usdjpy right now. Where are the position that we should place our buy and sell order (first step : direction catching : with hedging). I believe that we still should do our homework with step number 2.


Your first statement
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} look at a chart. any chart. any pair. i guarantee you, it is right in front of your eyes
make me very curious! Because i really believe that the charts is really staring back at us to show the opportunities. It us, who is ignorant to what the chart said.

Thanks in advanced!!
  • #29
  • Jul 13, 2017 2:36am Jul 13, 2017 2:36am
Quoting MoneyZilla
I could not find a way to make it work with one direction net opened orders, as you are suggesting it......
Thanks, but I still don't see it. Anyway, never mind, if hedging works for you, then obviously keep on doing it. If you do manage to bring down the interbank market, I guess we'll hear about it.
  • #30
  • Jul 14, 2017 6:36am Jul 14, 2017 6:36am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} Dear MZ, I believe in what you say, could you give us example, for instance : usdjpy right now. Where are the position that we should place our buy and sell order (first step : direction catching : with hedging). I believe that we still should do our homework with step number 2. Your first statement {quote} make me very curious! Because i really believe that the charts is really staring back at us to show the opportunities. It us, who is ignorant to what the chart said. Thanks in advanced!!
First of all, it takes about 100 trades, at least, maybe 200, as a minimum. I cant give you an example, cause I have already said it, it is so simple... Not good to spread it publicly.

But, I can tell you, when the rate goes up, on each 50 0.01 sell trades, you will have something like 110-120 0.01 buy trades. Their (both) average prices CAN be very close, if you find a way to build both rays of trades properly. This is the net of 0.70 buy lots Mr. Hanover is referring to. But instead of guessing the direction, the chart does it for you for free.

Hell, it is so simple! If I tell you just one example, you will immediately see it. This I leave to you. If you see it, keep it only for you, please. Tust me, it is right there, on the chart. In front of your eyes...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #31
  • Jul 14, 2017 7:57am Jul 14, 2017 7:57am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote}.................... If I tell you just one example, you will immediately see it. This I leave to you. If you see it, keep it only for you, please. Tust me, it is right there, on the chart. In front of your eyes...
Thanks MZ for the explanation. Btw, i have clipped all your post about hedging, cubic system, zig zag etc in OneNote and EverNote, hope that one day i will see the simplicity you have told us! Thanks once again!!
  • #32
  • Jul 14, 2017 8:32am Jul 14, 2017 8:32am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} Thanks MZ for the explanation. Btw, i have clipped all your post about hedging, cubic system, zig zag etc in OneNote and EverNote, hope that one day i will see the simplicity you have told us! Thanks once again!!
You are going to see it, if you are serious about searching it. Don't share it. Don't sell it.

The cubic system is amazing. It does not have any weak spot. Yesterday I have found about it, the rate moves in 3 steps ahead, then 1 step back. The biggest problem is the first step is HIDDEN. It is impossible to know where it is. It is impossible to catch it. I do not believe I ever will catch the very first step. Still, catching 2 out of 3 is amazing, but... when they make those little direction changes on small or big scale, it does not matter, it all the same, they make that step back and leave me with -10 pips for 50% of the times it goes back and the other 50% of the times it makes 2 steps ahead and 1 back. Which means -10 vs +10 = 0! This is unbreakable! IF you want to be automatically making money following the rate, lazily responding to every next direction change - THAT IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN... because of the cubes.

That is from me. Good luck!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #33
  • Jul 14, 2017 8:58am Jul 14, 2017 8:58am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} You are going to see it, if you are serious about searching it. Don't share it. Don't sell it. The cubic system is amazing. It does not have any weak spot. Yesterday I have found about it, the rate moves in 3 steps ahead, then 1 step back. The biggest problem is the first step is HIDDEN. It is impossible to know where it is. It is impossible to catch it. I do not believe I ever will catch the very first step. Still, catching 2 out of 3 is amazing, but... when they make those little direction changes on small or big scale, it does not matter,...

123456
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #34
  • Jul 16, 2017 7:53am Jul 16, 2017 7:53am
[quote=MoneyZilla;10086374]{quote} The cubic system is amazing.

I confused about "the cubic system".

Is the cubic function used as one step ahead forecast in Dr. Don K. Mak book ?

or other ?
  • #35
  • Jul 21, 2017 3:43pm Jul 21, 2017 3:43pm
Quote
The cubic system is amazing. I confused about "the cubic system". Is the cubic function used as one step ahead forecast in Dr. Don K. Mak book ? or other ?
No. cubic system is unbreakable, if one follows the rate at every turn, big or small. A smart filter is required to become profitable. Apparently, most strategies does not have such filter, because they do not even know about the cubic system existence in a first place...

I have never ever read any book on trading. I find other people's opinions to be badly influencing my mental capabilities and individual researches...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #36
  • Last Post: Jul 31, 2017 4:02am Jul 31, 2017 4:02am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Yep. {quote} No offense here, mate. This is very ignorant. When you do not know the direction, hedging seems to be the best way to catch it. All you have to do is to find a good system to open your buy/sell trades. For the rate to go from A to B, regardless of the direction, will require to open more trades in the direction ahead. This inevitably brings positive results, if you can wait for 300-400-500 pips from top to bottom. When speaking about a good system you can open your hedge trades, this does not mean you can start opening up/down...

Hedging means using contracts that cover future risk (i.e. it implies future delivery or settlement). Covering buy position with sell in same contract is pointless, because its same as treating symptoms rather than removing tumor immediately, without postponing it to late time.

Sorry its just my experience and trading views.
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