Disliked{quote} Not so sure about that, because if fundamental analysis had any predictive power, economics professors would all be billionaires by now. {quote} There is no doubt in my mind that we don't need macros to make profitable trading decisions. We can make a good living with simple trend-following and/or breakout techniques, no need to study micro and macro economics in Harvard or Oxford to make it in this business. In fact these MBA and PHD in economics from these prestigious schools are lousy traders in general, despite their vast knowledge.Ignored
The question was if price would go back to 109. The only reason it will go back to 109 are fundamental reasons not technical.
You are talking about whether or not you can make money in the markets using only technical analysis and I have agreed with you. You can make money as a technical trader. No argument here.
The two players who move the markets, the institutions and the central banks employ whole economic / analyst departments.
Their job is to come up with fundamental reasons for investing trillions of dollars in the currency markets. If you where a trader on a desk in say Merrills and the boss calls you in and said why did you go long EURUSD for 100m and your answer was the stochastic was oversold you would be fired.
The macro calls are made by the analysts, its then the prop desk traders job to go and work the markets to get the best average price they can. The trader get his commission calculated by how much of the average price they can place above / below the VWAP line.
On the clients desks it works differently in that they will quote a client a price, the traders gets paid by how much they can place into the market above / below that price depending on if its a buy or sell.
Sometimes the institutions are wrong and sometimes they are right depending on how good their analysts are.
I know this because I worked in risk for institutions in London for 15 years.
Boxing clever since 76.
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. You are so right copi88. Many traders do not believe/use fundamentals, easier to just look at indis and hope. Oh well, GL to them.
