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The Paradox System

  • #10,421
  • Jul 11, 2017 7:28am Jul 11, 2017 7:28am
Quoting pipon
{quote} My trade is running for 27 hours now, and it is 20-25 pips in profit. It got up to 38.5 pips about 4.5 hours ago. I hope my question will not irritate dove but I must ask: While the 40/40 rule is very clear, is there any time frame and/or pips in profit that we can move the stop to entry point ? I do believe in the trade and plan (Could have waited for a Parabolic touch instead of the EMA touch but that is hindsight), but after 27 hours we are not in the moment, and if market will change then getting a -40 pips on a trade that was a pip...
Before we talk about the 40/40 rule - lets talk about your trade. Many rules were broken on your entry:

For one you did not apply the rules for your entry. Another, there is no hindsight with the Paradox. All you need to do is follow the rules. You had a resistance with divergence, the DB, and the SAR; and your entry was short on the pip count to Resistance. So on entry you lost your trade by breaking the rules. If you had waited with patience for the Parabolic hit you would had your trade and the reason is because the Daily is still up.

Your excuse for breaking the 40/40 rule is only an excuse. There is a reason and a purpose for the 40/40 rule. That is to learn discipline in how to make a correct entry. It is a learning process of patience and skill. It does not matter how long it takes for the trade to complete but a learning process of working with your mistakes. Taking a trade before it runs its course is a great mistake. The reason is because what you learn on a demo will run over with you on a live account. Learning to trade properly on a demo will carry with you on a live account and that is how you become a winner.

Making excuses is a short cut to disaster.

OK traders - I have been very busy since the weekend and still very busy. I will catch up later.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #10,422
  • Jul 11, 2017 7:29am Jul 11, 2017 7:29am
Quoting Therapsid
{quote} A fair question. Dana has stated that a trading plan is valid for 24 hours. So perhaps it then follows that an open trade is rightfully "reevaluated" after 24 hours as well...be it demo or live.
Wrong attitude and not correct.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #10,423
  • Jul 11, 2017 7:45am Jul 11, 2017 7:45am
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} Before we talk about the 40/40 rule - lets talk about your trade. Many rules were broken on your entry: For one you did not apply the rules for your entry. Another, there is no hindsight with the Paradox. All you need to do is follow the rules. You had a resistance with divergence, the DB, and the SAR; and your entry was short on the pip count to Resistance. So on entry you lost your trade by breaking the rules. If you had waited with patience for the Parabolic hit you would had your trade and the reason is because the Daily is still up....
Couldn't agree more. We must have gone to the same camp.
i laugh and i laugh - but not at anyone. i just be smiling & nod with affirmation.
If you make up your own rules then the story is sad.....
  • #10,424
  • Edited 8:31am Jul 11, 2017 7:55am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting Adaptation
{quote} Entry: entered long at the opening of the 05:00 EST candle from EMA as support. Rules: rules for uptrends 1. ROMAR and EMA must be in sync on all three charts to go long (yes) post 1680 2. Sync for both ROMAR and EMA uptrend on both the 1 HR and 2 HR to enter a trade (yes) post 1680 3. Trades are made from support area to go long (yes) entered from EMA post 1680 {image}
Self evaluation: +40 pips. I think it was a good trade because I was patient and let the market come to me. Opened position from EMA as support and followed the rules. I initially planned to open a long position with an open candle above purple and smooth sliding under purple but after the BOJ announcement the market was a little bit too far over purple and I waited for a pullback for an entry.
Edit: I didn't make a pip count to resistance. From now on I will always make a pip count to next support or resistance
Consistency is a state of mind
  • #10,425
  • Jul 11, 2017 8:07am Jul 11, 2017 8:07am
Quoting Andiroo
{quote} Adjustments: None Entry: Long (edit typo - Short) - Awaited hit on Parabolic @0200hrs (sorry 2100hrs EST) as per above Trading Plan 40sl/40tp. {image}
Result: -40pips loss

Self Evaluation: I truly thought I had read this correctly, both H2 and H1 ROMAR out of the trading area, it looked to me in the moment the 4 horsemen were on my side for a short, the 3rd H2 Parabolic had resisted the market like a wall of steel on the climb up, the bottom BB was in Fib range as a target - on the 1hr retrace from Parabolic hit I thought I'd caught it pretty good as the only support against me was the lower BB.....then the market pushes through the Parabolics like butter.

Looking back I think my final confirmation was to await the next SAR to attach, without that I then would have noticed the EMA slider and then the signs to go long?


Cheers,
Andy
From the ashes of disaster grow the roses of success - Grandpa Potts, 1968
  • #10,426
  • Jul 11, 2017 10:14am Jul 11, 2017 10:14am
Quoting Nikitafen
Date: Monday July 10th NEWS: Orange USD news Tuesday 10:00 & 12:30 EST, otherwise yellow. Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support Psar - Support Checklist: Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up Last DB Attachment - Top Last SAR Attachment - Top Fibonacci - Red Notes: Imbalance present with the last 2, including current, candles being above Purple. New daily candle in several hours. Therefore, the market will either move down or sideways in order to restore balance. 4 horsemen are support. DB/SAR attached at top 0 Fibonacci. New daily...
Stop loss hit for -40. I'm afraid I was much too biased for a short position. Also, I anticipated EMA crossing Purple which is incorrect, as it went into a slider instead. The rule is that Purple must cross smooth on the next candle after crossing white, or else we will have a slider. EMA and Smooth did not make a clean crossing as EMA just slid under Smooth. Once again a lack of patience.
  • #10,427
  • Jul 11, 2017 1:43pm Jul 11, 2017 1:43pm
You should understand that it went north while having the divergence.

The trend did not end at all as you can see, but finding an explanation and creating a rule after the fact is not how you should teach forex to your students. Basically, you are telling them that the Paradox sees the future...

The market did continue north and the trend did not end like the paradox is telling. Also the sliding did happen after the market pushed up and not the contrary.

And you are right, the market did pass the parabolic while not being flipped, because as I said and anyone that is serious about forex will say, the price is not following the paradox but the paradox is ''making mistakes'' which will all find a logical explanation after the fact.

You got a good point Andiroo, you must always, in anything you do in life use your logical thinking which you did, but the problem is that you still think that you must be wrong somewhere because the holy paradox knows it all.
  • #10,428
  • Jul 11, 2017 2:51pm Jul 11, 2017 2:51pm
Hi Samuel,

After 4 months of lurking under the radar reading and testing the Paradox, and the last month or so officially coming on here, I would be the first to say (although I know I'm not!) the Paradox and Dove combined are something very special indeed......I spent a year with Ichimoku (thanks to Swede on another forum), and have traded quite successfully (and still do), however the Paradox gives me something Ichimoku doesn't even come close to - more belief and understanding of what is happening now and 'in the moment'....and I'm still along way off from being able to trade with it. But I have a heart and a head, and both are saying to me Paradox.

I'm quite sure there is something I have misunderstood, or taken out of context when creating my trading plan for this trade, and I have the belief that Dana will set me on the true path to understand it.

Hope you don't mind me saying then, that I find your post unnecessary, obstructive and rude, and totally ignorant of all the teachings contained in this thread. Do as I do, go back and read it all again, the answer will be there somewhere.

Godspeed my friend

Cheers,
Andy
From the ashes of disaster grow the roses of success - Grandpa Potts, 1968
  • #10,429
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:02pm Jul 11, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting samuel2133
You should understand that it went north while having the divergence. The trend did not end at all as you can see, but finding an explanation and creating a rule after the fact is not how you should teach forex to your students. Basically, you are telling them that the Paradox sees the future... The market did continue north and the trend did not end like the paradox is telling. Also the sliding did happen after the market pushed up and not the contrary. And you are right, the market did pass the parabolic while not being flipped, because as I said...
I don't mean to be rude, but your wrong. Last night there should not have been a short trade placed if the rules were applied correctly. Not after the fact, but in the moment, bar to bar as it happened. If the rules were applied correctly there was a +40 trade to be had after the slider.

Keep reading and keep pushing on and it will all come together. Good luck
Never Give Up
  • #10,430
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:07pm Jul 11, 2017 3:07pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} Before we talk about the 40/40 rule - lets talk about your trade..

Thank you for your time, I will follow the 40/40 rule no matter what

The trade ended in 40+ but as you said I broke the entry rule when entered on EMA when I did not have enough pips for the next resistance at 130.86 where DB+SAR+divergence.

The reason I entered on EMA as support and not waited for the PSAR touch, is because I did that in the plan from 3/7 (post 10,250) and the result was NO TRADE as the trend continued without touching the PSAR.

Also you wrote about it in post 10,261 ""The entry was the hit on EMA for the long and into the trend. And with the timing of your plan you had the opportunity and did not take it"

I find it very hard to understand witch support to use in an uptrend

Sometimes it is the EMA sometimes the PSAR and in many cases the purple is a good support to go long from.

Can you please explain more about it.

I never considered myself a slow learner, but maybe I am, so please be patient with me
  • #10,431
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:18pm Jul 11, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting Andiroo
Hi Samuel, After 4 months of lurking under the radar reading and testing the Paradox, and the last month or so officially coming on here, I would be the first to say (although I know I'm not!) the Paradox and Dove combined are something very special indeed......I spent a year with Ichimoku (thanks to Swede on another forum), and have traded quite successfully (and still do), however the Paradox gives me something Ichimoku doesn't even come close to - more belief and understanding of what is happening now and 'in the moment'....and I'm still along...
Hey Andy,
I made the same trade as you and I realized my mistake with the daily chart. Purple was moving away from white after sliding over it. And the clincher was when the new daily candle opened and came down to purple and rocketed off of it. Once I noticed what was happening with the daily I knew it was a losing trade. I should have know this was going straight up but experience will help me learn. The supports and trend of the daily are very powerful and you can see what happened in this snippet of last night. Plus the H2 was in such a shallow reversal swing that everything was actually saying North.

I was actually going to post my self evaluation of the losing trade before it even finished when I saw the whole picture. There was only one way that trade was headed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy daily.png Size: 12 KB
The quieter you become, the more that you can hear.
  • #10,432
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:31pm Jul 11, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting SolitudeFx
{quote} Hey Andy, I made the same trade as you and I realized my mistake with the daily chart. Purple was moving away from white after sliding over it. And the clincher was when the new daily candle opened and came down to purple and rocketed off of it. Once I noticed what was happening with the daily I knew it was a losing trade. I should have know this was going straight up but experience will help me learn. The supports and trend of the daily are very powerful and you can see what happened in this snippet of last night. Plus the H2 was in such...
Thanks Solitude, appreciated

I was going to ask you more about your previous post later this evening, you've now made it much clearer thanks - I have found the Daily hard to grasp in terms of relating it's relevance to the H2 chart, for instance when Daily Purple is 'in balance' and how to use the CP on Daily for 'in the moment' trading (if indeed you can).

Lots to learn, but enjoying every second, when work allows!

Cheers,
Andy
From the ashes of disaster grow the roses of success - Grandpa Potts, 1968
  • #10,433
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:32pm Jul 11, 2017 3:32pm

To make my question more graphic here are the images:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYpro3-7.png Size: 72 KB

On this plan from 3/7 my plan was:

We are in an uptrend, I will look for a buy from support

Entry : long at a Parabolic 2H touch for 40/40 . joining the trend. If the 2H purple will cross white and smooth then adjustments will be made


The result was NO trade as the price continued up after barley touching EMA at 128.30 (when DB+SAR and divergence where at 128.62)

Your note to me was "The entry was the hit on EMA for the long and into the trend. And with the timing of your plan you had the opportunity and did not take it."

Yesterday was very similar (at least in my eyes )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYpro10-7.png Size: 70 KB

This time I tried to learn from my mistake and the plan was

"We are in an uptrend, the fact that the 2H ROMAR is out of the trading zone and the last DB+SAR suggest a possible small move down.

The rules with an uptrend are clear: BUY FROM SUPPORT for 40/40

Entry : long at EMA 2H touch for 40/40


This time price did go down to PSAR and as you said I should have been patient and go long from PSAR and not EMA.


I look at both images and fail to see what is it that I miss. I feel that next time Im in this scenario I will not know if I should wait for PSAR or buy at EMA

And it is something very basic that I do not understand.


  • #10,434
  • Jul 11, 2017 4:03pm Jul 11, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting SolitudeFx
{quote} Hey Andy, I made the same trade as you and I realized my mistake with the daily chart. Purple was moving away from white after sliding over it. And the clincher was when the new daily candle opened and came down to purple and rocketed off of it. Once I noticed what was happening with the daily I knew it was a losing trade. I should have know this was going straight up but experience will help me learn. The supports and trend of the daily are very powerful and you can see what happened in this snippet of last night. Plus the H2 was in such...
likewise, i was biased for the short for some reason and I failed to see the picture by disregarding the slider for the continuation of the uptrend.
Here is another trading session and another opportunity to gain more wisdom and experience.
  • #10,435
  • Jul 11, 2017 4:06pm Jul 11, 2017 4:06pm
I have a question about the pip count rule. For example, right now the market is in a full blown uptrend, DB/SAR attached at the top of the FIBO with divergences and the market is 20 pips below the 0.00 level. IF, the 17:00 EST candle opened right now from purple as support, we shouldn't take the trade because we don't have 40 pips to the top of the FIBO?
Consistency is a state of mind
  • #10,436
  • Jul 11, 2017 5:35pm Jul 11, 2017 5:35pm
Quoting Adaptation
I have a question about the pip count rule. For example, right now the market is in a full blown uptrend, DB/SAR attached at the top of the FIBO with divergences and the market is 20 pips below the 0.00 level. IF, the 17:00 EST candle opened right now from purple as support, we shouldn't take the trade because we don't have 40 pips to the top of the FIBO?
Minus a more experienced voice, here's my shot at an answer. I believe in a trend the 0.0 isn't resistance in itself, it's marking the DB/SAR attachment, which in a trend is likely to keep going up.
  • #10,437
  • Jul 11, 2017 5:50pm Jul 11, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting Therapsid
{quote} Minus a more experienced voice, here's my shot at an answer. I believe in a trend the 0.0 isn't resistance in itself, it's marking the DB/SAR attachment, which in a trend is likely to keep going up.
Yes I think you're right, thank you for answering. I ask this question because when Dove commented pipon's self evaluation, he said that he didn't have the correct pip count to the top and Sunday scenario was very similar to todays see post #10423.
Consistency is a state of mind
  • #10,438
  • Jul 11, 2017 6:07pm Jul 11, 2017 6:07pm
Quoting Adaptation
{quote} Yes I think you're right, thank you for answering. I ask this question because when Dove commented pipon's self evaluation, he said that he didn't have the correct pip count to the top and Sunday scenario was very similar to todays see post #10423.
Yes, so assuming we're correct, once the SAR breaks off it eliminates all resistance (with the exception of the BB).
  • #10,439
  • Jul 11, 2017 7:14pm Jul 11, 2017 7:14pm
TODAY TRADING PLAN
D1
ROMAR SUPPORT
EMA SUPPORT
PSAR SUPPORT
Last DB attached on top candle 130.753
Macd Up
Fibo Red
NOTE: D1 is on full uptrend

H2
ROMAR SUPPORT
EMA SUPPORT
PSAR SUPPORT
Last DB/SAR attached on top 130.753
Macd Up
Last EMA Cross Up
Fibo Red
BB opening up
NOTE: H2 is on full uptrend

H1
ROMAR SUPPORT
EMA SUPPORT
PSAR SUPPORT (eliminated)
Macd Down
NOTE:H1 is on full uptrend, but white crossed purple so parabolic eliminated

final notes: all charts is full uptrend, so trade long off support, currently remaining support is H2 EMA and PSAR
Entry : i'll wait the market to touch H2 EMA to go long, confluence with 23,6 FIbo

Rules: rules for uptrends
1. ROMAR and EMA must be in sync on all three charts to go long
2. Sync for both ROMAR and EMA uptrend on both the 1 HR and 2 HR to enter a trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 177 KB
I Will Never Give Up
  • #10,440
  • Jul 11, 2017 8:09pm Jul 11, 2017 8:09pm
OK Traders - lets go through my evaluation of Pipon trade.

"For one you did not apply the rules for your entry. Another, there is no hindsight with the Paradox. All you need to do is follow the rules."

His entry going long was with a close candle below Purple, White, and Smooth with Divergence. So I ask each of you what is the rule for the close/open in this scenario. If you do not know the answer; then go searching and find the answer.

You had a resistance with divergence, the DB, and the SAR; and your entry was short on the pip count to Resistance.

Because of Resistance the pip count was not there to go long in the "moment."

So on entry you lost your trade by breaking the rules. If you had waited with patience for the Parabolic hit you would had your trade and the reason is because the Daily is still up.

With the Rule - and Daily up - His opportunity would had arises for another trade in the "moment". Every trade is in the moment and not after the fact.

What everyone is missing is this uptrend will end and will do so at the top. This means you need 40+ pips to resistance of Divergence, DB, and the SAR. Or risk in losing that trade on a reversal at the top. The scenario with Pipon was he got caught in consolidation for the possible reversal. And being caught he had to wait because he did not have the 40 for taking profit..

Bottom line - be sure the pip count is there before pulling the trigger.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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