Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 432 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,621
  • Jun 29, 2017 1:05pm Jun 29, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting jamaa
{quote} Hey Isaac, What I'm saying is there're some pieces of the skillset that are beyond the scope of this thread. In dealing with this type of scenario, we apply microscoping technique in order to have a magnified picture of the imbalance real time. I like keeping it simple, hence those observations in post 8604 which are enough to keep you out of loosing trades. An easier trade is to go long, leaning on an objective dz as shown in the screenshot below: Cheers! {image} {image}
But if WK and D1 SZ is in control, I wouldn't see why a long would even be an option. Good trade tho. Please enlighten me
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,622
  • Jul 3, 2017 3:38am Jul 3, 2017 3:38am
Good day to all,

If ok with the group, I would like to pick your brains with the following scenarios and questions......


Scenario 1: S/D zones formed by TL breaks and S/D zones formed by swap zones.

Question: In each scenario, do the S/D zones have to offer a minimum of 2:1 to be validated and to take trades from?


Scenario 2: HTF (weekly or monthly) S/D zones tested multiple times but the zones are holding

Question: In these scenarios, confirmation entries on the daily are required, but when would one stop looking for entries inside or around HTF levels?


Scenario 3: Daily zones nested within HTF (weekly or monthly) S/D zones

Question: Are we looking for strong daily imbalances that remove opposing daily zones, are we only looking for strong daily imbalances or both?


Thanks in advance!
  • #8,623
  • Jul 3, 2017 4:33am Jul 3, 2017 4:33am
Quoting Richie-Rees
Good day to all, If ok with the group, I would like to pick your brains with the following scenarios and questions...... Scenario 1: S/D zones formed by TL breaks and S/D zones formed by swap zones. Question: In each scenario, do the S/D zones have to offer a minimum of 2:1 to be validated and to take trades from? Scenario 2: HTF (weekly or monthly) S/D zones tested multiple times but the zones are holding Question: In these scenarios, confirmation entries on the daily are required, but when would one stop looking for entries inside or around HTF...
Hello Richie!

1. I believe all zones should make at least 2:1 before it's validated.

2. When would one stop? I believe when the market dynamics are changing or when you get a loss. (TL break or opposing zones are being respected etc..)

3. If it's fresh MN and WK zones with D1 nested, Set and Forget trade setups can be used on D1 zones within HTF zones. (How can a zone be created if it didn't remove an opposing zone anyways. Besides TL break zones)

hope this helps.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,624
  • Jul 3, 2017 4:52am Jul 3, 2017 4:52am
Quoting Richie-Rees
Good day to all, If ok with the group, I would like to pick your brains with the following scenarios and questions...... Scenario 1: S/D zones formed by TL breaks and S/D zones formed by swap zones. Question: In each scenario, do the S/D zones have to offer a minimum of 2:1 to be validated and to take trades from? Scenario 2: HTF (weekly or monthly) S/D zones tested multiple times but the zones are holding Question: In these scenarios, confirmation entries on the daily are required, but when would one stop looking for entries inside or around HTF...
Dear Ritchie,
This is my take on how I'd approach these scenarios.

1. Not really. Firstly look if the momentum took out an opposing demand zone. If it does, then the supply zone is validated for shorts. having a 2:1 imbalance is an added odds enhancer.

2. If it's tested even once, I stop looking at the pair and look at other pairs.

3. For better odds, like answer 1, wait for an opposing s/d zone to be eliminated (entry timeframe). For set & forget, i will always take the nested s/d zone at the distal line. super high odds.
i just want to make 10% gain a month.
  • #8,625
  • Jul 3, 2017 5:27am Jul 3, 2017 5:27am
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} Hello Richie! 1. I believe all zones should make at least 2:1 before it's validated. 2. When would one stop? I believe when the market dynamics are changing or when you get a loss. (TL break or opposing zones are being respected etc..) 3. If it's fresh MN and WK zones with D1 nested, Set and Forget trade setups can be used on D1 zones within HTF zones. (How can a zone be created if it didn't remove an opposing zone anyways. Besides TL break zones) hope this helps.
Thank you very much.
  • #8,626
  • Jul 3, 2017 5:28am Jul 3, 2017 5:28am
Quoting amnrsln
{quote} Dear Ritchie, This is my take on how I'd approach these scenarios. 1. Not really. Firstly look if the momentum took out an opposing demand zone. If it does, then the supply zone is validated for shorts. having a 2:1 imbalance is an added odds enhancer. 2. If it's tested even once, I stop looking at the pair and look at other pairs. 3. For better odds, like answer 1, wait for an opposing s/d zone to be eliminated (entry timeframe). For set & forget, i will always take the nested s/d zone at the distal line. super high odds.
Thank you very much.
  • #8,627
  • Jul 4, 2017 11:44am Jul 4, 2017 11:44am
Evening all,

Another day, a few more questions.....

Scenario: HTF (monthly or weekly) S/D has been hit, but just before price hit, the HTF TL was broken.

Question 1: After the TL break, is the HTF S/D zone still in control and are we looking for LTF (daily) S/D zones that are in line with the HTF zone (i.e. LTF demand on the back of price hitting HTF demand)?

Question 2: If answer to 1 is yes, are confirmation entries required?

Question 3: If answer to 1 is no, is there any situation where the HTF S/D would be valid to take on the LTF provided it is in line (i.e. not selling into demand or vice versa)?

Question 4: If an order was placed on LTF and stepped away from computer but the trade was triggered by a market event, would you close immediately upon reviewing the chart (given HTF TL break) or manage as normal?

Thanks in advance.
  • #8,628
  • Jul 5, 2017 1:48am Jul 5, 2017 1:48am
New weekly supply zones created on USDCAD, last weekly imbalance is located at 1.3198. Lots of room to drop to tested weekly demand around 1.2676. Short bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,629
  • Jul 6, 2017 2:13am Jul 6, 2017 2:13am
Shopify American stock buy setups at monthly demand level at 46.18 #SHOP. Strong bullish impulses creating weekly and monthly demand levels to go long at. This is a long term buy setup, no supply levels to the left since it’s making all time highs. Buying at monthly and weekly demand zones is the way to go. There is no reason to go short in this stock since all timeframes are bullish, demand zones are being created, lower timeframe supply levels are eliminated.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shopify_monthly_demand.png Size: 67 KB


Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,630
  • Jul 6, 2017 10:37pm Jul 6, 2017 10:37pm
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates,

I have a long set up un Hewlett-Packard Co. (hpq). its a wow set up in d1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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passion and discipline
  • #8,631
  • Edited 5:17am Jul 11, 2017 1:28am | Edited 5:17am
Forex cross pair AUDJPY is rallying and creating new levels of daily and weekly demand, potential longs incoming. In an uptrend supply is removed and demand is respected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 268 KB


Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,632
  • Jul 11, 2017 6:45am Jul 11, 2017 6:45am
Quoting panoramia
Forex cross pair AUDJPY is rallying and creating new levels of daily and weekly demand, potential longs incoming. In an uptrend supply is removed and demand is respected. {image} Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Hello guys,

83.15 seemed a good area to go long in the now moment.

Cheers!
  • #8,633
  • Jul 11, 2017 9:07am Jul 11, 2017 9:07am
Afternoon all,

Another day and a few more questions.....

Scenario: HTF (monthly or weekly) S/D has been hit, but just before price hit, the HTF TL was broken.

Question 1: After the TL break, is the HTF S/D zone still in control and are we looking for LTF (daily) S/D zones that are in line with the HTF zone (i.e. LTF demand on the back of price hitting HTF demand)?

Question 2: If answer to 1 is yes, are confirmation entries required?

Question 3: If answer to 1 is no, is there any situation where the HTF S/D would be valid to take on the LTF provided it is in line (i.e. not selling into demand or vice versa)?

Question 4: If an order was placed on LTF and stepped away from computer but the trade was triggered by a market event, would you close immediately upon reviewing the chart (given HTF TL break) or manage as normal?

Thanks in advance.
  • #8,634
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:29am Jul 12, 2017 10:29am
Quoting panoramia
Forex cross pair AUDJPY is rallying and creating new levels of daily and weekly demand, potential longs incoming. In an uptrend supply is removed and demand is respected. {image} Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Hi Alfonso
Does it not matter that the AUDJPY pair is at supply level right now on the weekly?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy-w1-trading-point-of.png Size: 34 KB
  • #8,635
  • Jul 12, 2017 3:57pm Jul 12, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting zeusualsuspe
{quote} Hi Alfonso Does it not matter that the AUDJPY pair is at supply level right now on the weekly? {image}
You are not doing a correct top down supply and demand analysis, you are just using one timeframe and drawing imbalances incorrectly. Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,636
  • Jul 13, 2017 1:42am Jul 13, 2017 1:42am
Forex cross pair audnzd is starting to rally and create brand new levels of daily demand for potential longs. In an uptrend supply is removed and demand is respected. Previous daily demand level playing out. Long bias!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 267 KB


Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,637
  • Jul 13, 2017 9:40am Jul 13, 2017 9:40am
Hi there I have a couple of questions that I need help with:

1) Does the 3 CP levels have to remove 3 opposing levels in order to draw in the aggressive trendline or does it just have to create 3 CP levels continuously (doesn't matter if it broke an opposing level or not)?

2)Do only CP levels create flipzone or also Valleys & Peaks?

3) Does a level need to be incontrol before we can either buy or sell the pair or do we just check how high or low we are in the curve?
  • #8,638
  • Jul 14, 2017 11:06pm Jul 14, 2017 11:06pm
Hello Alfonso and friends, good day. (EURGBP)

Weekly supply in control and there's a Bearish Engulfing. Short bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily supply being created, demand eliminated, and there's a Dark Cloud Cover.
Not 2:1 but got 2 ERC candle move away from the zone. Short bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4 supply being created, demand eliminated. I'm not gonna take short at CP supply around 88000,
not higher odds because Daily demand is in control. But with confluence EMA 50 it could work, maybe. Gonna take short around 88580.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Please correct me if i'm wrong. Cheers
  • #8,639
  • Jul 16, 2017 10:02pm Jul 16, 2017 10:02pm
I hope that I did this right. I am still reading the first to pages of this thread. But it certainly looks interesting. Alfonso's daily candle trading is more in line in what I would like to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,640
  • Jul 16, 2017 11:12pm Jul 16, 2017 11:12pm
Quoting drfrankm
I hope that I did this right. I am still reading the first to pages of this thread. But it certainly looks interesting. Alfonso's daily candle trading is more in line in what I would like to do. {image}
Both the W1 and D1 trend is up and momentum line is not broken.
Is it a good idea to trade against that ?

All the best tho
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