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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

  • #1,521
  • Jul 5, 2017 5:19am Jul 5, 2017 5:19am
Quoting shs0404
{image} can we except this as revers
I missed the trade at red arrow

can I get the blue arrow as reveres to get long ?
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  • #1,522
  • Jul 5, 2017 9:04am Jul 5, 2017 9:04am
Quoting shs0404
can I get the blue arrow as reveres to get long ?
First and foremost, I will never ever give trading advice ahead of entry. Having said that, there's nothing I've posted in this thread that should or would compel a trader to use a pin like that as demand.

Honestly, you're only going to speed up your learning process by returning to the absolute basics, in my opinion. And I'm afraid that means a lot of time, effort, and not much trading in between. On that basis, your focus shouldn't be on posting here in this thread, it should be on comprehending the charts. And only you can make that link to comprehension.

My advice to you is to research the Supply/Demand and Support/Resistance articles on FXStreet.com (if they're still there). You can also watch Sam Seiden videos for a reasonable chart-based explanation of SD in action. For an explanation of PA confirmation at Sam's levels, redsword11's thread is still here in FF and is worth reading.

I've spoken about "direction" and I've also spoken about the primary difference between SR and SD as I see it. On top of this I can't add anything more because there isn't anything more to add. I'd only end up repeating myself.

It's not possible to trade with confidence until we understand the underlying framework. That framework is these basic concepts as described above. Once you have a solid grasp of these concepts, and can articulate them, come back to this thread if you wish. I'm sure by that time, you'll get a lot more out of it.

Good luck
  • #1,523
  • Jul 5, 2017 1:03pm Jul 5, 2017 1:03pm
SHS have you finished all the courses in the set-and-forget classroom? there is a lot of good material in there it just takes hours and hours to become intuitive. and there definitely is a lot more intuition involved than Alfonso says, you can tell by watching his webinars

anyway... some nice structure in eurusd today during NY session. caught this one

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  • #1,524
  • Jul 5, 2017 1:37pm Jul 5, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} First and foremost, I will never ever give trading advice ahead of entry. Having said that, there's nothing I've posted in this thread that should or would compel a trader to use a pin like that as demand. Honestly, you're only going to speed up your learning process by returning to the absolute basics, in my opinion. And I'm afraid that means a lot of time, effort, and not much trading in between. On that basis, your focus shouldn't be on posting here in this thread, it should be on comprehending the charts. And only you can make that link...
ok I got that

its a cruel summer
  • #1,525
  • Jul 6, 2017 2:32am Jul 6, 2017 2:32am
Quoting shs0404
its a cruel summer
That depends on which way you look at it. The advice I've given you is practical advice, aimed to speed up your learning in the long run.
  • #1,526
  • Edited 3:05am Jul 6, 2017 2:55am | Edited 3:05am
Quoting rudy5
there definitely is a lot more intuition involved than Alfonso says
Who's "Alfonso"? Don't worry answering, I already know.

I couldn't disagree more with this statement regarding "intuition". Rudy, if you go down that road be mindful to take a solid pair of hiking boots with you because it's full of goat shit. These people that talk about intuition in the market are the same characters that claim "trading is art". Trading is not art. There's an art to it. But that's not the same thing.

Your EURUSD M1 chart was good. USDJPY M5 is doing some things this morning and looks like it may react to what set up yesterday. This is not intuition - it's the immutable laws of supply/demand and support/resistance. Keep your trading real and keep it empirical. Leave the intuition and tea-leaves for others.

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  • #1,527
  • Edited 5:34am Jul 6, 2017 3:03am | Edited 5:34am
EURJPY M30

Testing some important SR after printing a fresh low (on candle closes). It can either make fresh supply here or test the supply above. Either PA could give rise to shorting opportunities but if it decides to breach 129.10 there's a good chance it will continue to rise and test 130.20 (Daily level).

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  • #1,528
  • Jul 6, 2017 3:16am Jul 6, 2017 3:16am
If you follow the immutable laws of supply/demand and support/resistance your USDJPY M5 chart should now look something like this. I'm going to try buy it unless price reaches 113.44 first. If price dips below 113.14, or makes fresh supply that looks solid and is tested solidly I'll aim to sell it.

Keep an open mind to both sides of the market then sit on hands until the market tells us what to do.

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  • #1,529
  • Jul 6, 2017 4:29am Jul 6, 2017 4:29am
Quoting simond2002
I'm going to try buy it
Closed it. Entry on M1, about 7R.


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  • #1,530
  • Jul 6, 2017 5:32am Jul 6, 2017 5:32am
Will try and sell Oz today. There's still a support here at current price active but the structure of these recent bearish candles, the BRLs etc etc may be a heads up for lower prices.

There may be traders already short with scalp type entries but that's not my cup of tea. My approach tends to be very clinical and requires quite a bit of patience for the kind of retraces that will currently be needed here.

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  • #1,531
  • Jul 6, 2017 8:50am Jul 6, 2017 8:50am
Nice UJ trade!

You're right I think intuition is not the right way to put it, I cant say I'm intuitive at all. I suppose what I was implying was that Alfonso is in tune with a lot that's going on in the chart but somehow always fits it all in so that the "simple" S/D rules prevail. His rules are the result of his understanding, but rules without understanding didn't cut it for me. Once I stopped focusing on the rules (after getting a handle on them at least) and started trying to learn the principles behind them things got better. (that was more for shs lol)
  • #1,532
  • Jul 6, 2017 9:42am Jul 6, 2017 9:42am
Quoting rudy5
stopped focusing on the rules (after getting a handle on them at least) and started trying to learn the principles behind them
Well said. That principle is exactly what I'm trying to encourage in this thread. Learn the basics of SD/SR so that one can mark out those areas on a chart. Then wait to observe how price reacts at these areas in order to understand in real time what does and what doesn't constitute a signal.

Prepare that kind of fertile ground and the rules will grow out of it themselves.
  • #1,533
  • Jul 6, 2017 9:51am Jul 6, 2017 9:51am
UJ M5

Certain circumstances warrant the use of a trendline. Will watch this at 113.26 and if I get a short entry will target the lower trendline.

If price engulfs the supply will not look for any further trades today.

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  • #1,534
  • Jul 6, 2017 10:12am Jul 6, 2017 10:12am
Quoting simond2002
UJ M5 Certain circumstances warrant the use of a trendline. Will watch this at 113.26 and if I get a short entry will target the lower trendline. If price engulfs the supply will not look for any further trades today. {image}
There is one more level slightly above that confluences the trendline and forms the top of the current M5 SD wave. It can be worth observing PA there but I won't be taking any more trades today.

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  • #1,535
  • Jul 6, 2017 12:00pm Jul 6, 2017 12:00pm
The Current ES levels in the 1hr chart as per my understanding of the principles discussed in this thread. your feedback is appreciated or just a word to let me know if im on the right track or not. Thanks

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  • #1,536
  • Jul 6, 2017 12:20pm Jul 6, 2017 12:20pm
Quoting tintin1
The Current ES levels in the 1hr chart as per my understanding of the principles discussed in this thread. your feedback is appreciated or just a word to let me know if im on the right track or not. Thanks {image}
Yep, looks pretty good to my eyes. If you now factor in the S/R as well, you can get a clue as to where, why and how the S/D zones form.

At the bottom of your chart price is currently making a Higher-Low (on the candle closes) so that's something to remain aware of.

The only level I'd discount on your chart is the one crossed out. This is quite subtle and relates to how I personally distinguish between "zones" and "levels". A zone to me - example supply zone - must always consist of some form of rally in price prior to the drop in price whereas the level, as you can see is, structurally different.

That's not to say stuff won't happen at the level - it often does in the right context - particularly if we have an established market direction. But I would say that in the first instance it's best to focus on the swing points, i.e. the zones, and perhaps leave the subtler stuff for a bit later on.

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  • #1,537
  • Jul 6, 2017 12:27pm Jul 6, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Yep, looks pretty good to my eyes. If you now factor in the S/R as well, you can get a clue as to where, why and how the S/D zones form. At the bottom of your chart price is currently making a Higher-Low (on the candle closes) so that's something to remain aware of. The only level I'd discount on your chart is the one crossed out. This is quite subtle and relates to how I personally distinguish between "zones" and "levels". A zone to me - example supply zone - must always consist of some form of rally in price prior to the drop in price...
hello simon thanks i appreciate your reply
so Just for my clear understandin. when you mean S/R, is that the level where Support turned resistance aand vice versa and also the one you call as BRL?

Thanks
  • #1,538
  • Jul 6, 2017 12:33pm Jul 6, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting tintin1
{quote} hello simon thanks i appreciate your reply so Just for my clear understandin. when you mean S/R, is that the level where Support turned resistance aand vice versa and also the one you call as BRL? Thanks
Apologies, I'm using generic terms when I should be a little more precise. Hope this helps:

(Edit: let me also add - to avoid confusion - the area labelled "tested support" was obviously broken but hopefully the example helps distinguish between SR and SD)

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  • #1,539
  • Edited 1:16pm Jul 6, 2017 12:50pm | Edited 1:16pm
This a live example mentioned in post 1,534.

The supply zone is now tested and so for me that area now constitutes, resistance.

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  • #1,540
  • Jul 6, 2017 2:22pm Jul 6, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting simond2002
This a live example mentioned in post 1,534. The supply zone is now tested and so for me that area now constitutes, resistance. {image}
related to the above regarding a supply zone is tested or not and how immediately it tests the zone. i find the following CL 5 min chart interesting
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the zone 1 is supply tested by zone 2 which makes it R
then zone 2 is immediately tested by zone 3 and makes it R
then zone 4 immediately tested by zone 4 and makes R
so at this point only fresh untested zone is 4 and we should look for reaction there ans ignore the other zones as they r tested already(they may or may not reacts but the odds r low)
Also is this is called stacked supply or compression?

Thanks
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