MY Journal-phil13

Hehe. Good to see you too Phil.
I am good Phil, sorry just flying under the radar doing my stuff and am still busy reading the books I gotten.
I think I might need a book or 2 about bonds soon. The books that I am on now is not detail enough on them, but I have yet to read one more, so I hope the last book has some good nuggets I could use.

Rgds

Seems like it is risk off moving into FOMC minutes today huh.. I am going back into my bunker soon..
Might need to start building one if that north korea tard starts to go nuclear. What a total retard that fellow is.

by the way, have you heard? volvo is going full electric by 2019.. INSANE! Volvo is own by china, and china have cornered lithium markets from what I been reading, so China > USA in the years ahead if world starts going electric.

well, i guess china wants to be the one to start on clean energy huh? 2 pronged move, 1, clean energy, 2, become industry leader.

too late in the day to start a G/U new trade now especially with FOMC due in a while.

i will have a look later or tomorrow.

G/U demo trade..... if we do not force our bias on the market and control our risk profits come when ready.

Are you entering using ATR figure either at 1 x ATR or .5 x ATR depending on confidence?

I went long eur bargained inside m5 flag too - they also put out the usual tit bit

Alex

Hi Alex

no, i use daily atr to see how far the move has gone to gauge if worth starting a trade.

the other way i used atr was for purely to demonstrate the money management and how it will if managed correctly produce its own profit.

the way i am trading now is like my live stuff (but only using one pair), using the buy/sell areas and momentum with the 'read' from the higher frame charts.

i am trying to show how to stalk and test trades, which requires mainly patients and control of risk until everything is ready/lines up in our favour.

regards

Phil.

Thanks for clarity.

I do think the concept of stopping the bleeding is very useful until price comes our way - say in super deep PB that had good momentum the other way - it could stop the bleeding until it turns back our way. I am thinking of how to use it best so as not to kill.

Alex

Hi Alex

different situation require different action as you can see in the examples i have posted.

the hardest part for us is getting over/learning to control the cognitive dissonance trading against yourself causes within us (holding two conflicting beliefs at once), it is explained in the video i last posted.

once the bleeding is stopped that should tell you you have a problem with your original assessment of the direction, at that point things should be completely re-assessed and you should be open to trading either way to produce that profit, remember it is not always advisable to go for full recovery in one go, just flow with what the charts are telling you, if you are in line with the higher frames and there has been no game changer happen then just gather rations from the enemy to feed/sustain your army, if you constantly think what is my 'best outcome' here and not about winning in any single pair you will start to see what you think and what should be done are two different things, slowly your brain will accept these new conditions and it will become 'internalised' as experience shows you it is the correct and better way to deal with what is thrown at us.

the formula is rather simple (it must be if i understand it), if you are 10 unit long and 10 units short and the gap (spread you created) is say 20pips you will need to go to 20 more units to recover in roughly half that move/gap (not exact maths here but i am sure you get what i mean).

knowing what i am showing here trade wise with buy/sell areas/momentum/MPS/daily atr/ect helps us judge the possibility of success to achieve that gap close.

regards

Phil.

here is an example of a game changer....

post a while back...

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10001541

and the result.....

ALL things must be considered....

hey phil,

on thinking deeper, what the experiment you conducted, is interesting, and is it right to say that, what you implemented is similar to how one would trade fti's style with scout and attack only no rescues? for example, i deploy 1x scout, with no rescue skew, and attack skew of 1 x scout 1 x scout 1.2 x scout 1.2 x scout 1.2 x scout.

when on wind one would attack aggressively to bring the bacon home plus recover previous scouting losses to feel market. but if scout in trouble, one can simply retreat scout and deploy later. so you may lose 1x scout for 2 to 3 times, then when that 1 trend manifests, you attack 2 to 3 levels, and gain maybe 1 1 1.2 1.2, which is 4.4 units, which easily recovers the 2-3x scout loss when multiply by the ATR, 4.4 easily becomes 5x to 10x the 3x loss over 2 to 3 times.

when plotted out, the results are similar to what richard dennis's turtle manual's results, strong risk reward ratio individual loss is small and easily recoverable. except for a difference in which, the pulsing the market mechanism is different when fti pulses the market he tracks the market differently (but very powerful form of pulsing the market) from richard dennis's which is a purely breakout strategy. the kink in richard dennis's mo was not so much in his mm, but that he only trades breakouts, which means he may not be nimble enough when the market changes terrain. the main way richard dennis tracks terrain change from range to trend was in tracking volatility expansion, but non-directional, as he does not enforce direction, he let market show direction, then trade in the direction, and then when on wind, he attacks.

so in essence, mm helps to provide you an edge, as given by your experiment, but to maximize to full potential comes from the ability to pulse market, and use the mm in conjunction to pulsing the market.

Hi CookieMonsta

The first few trades on that demo account (white charts) were all pre-placed and never moved pending orders at 1N or 0.5N in a spiral around the current price, I purposely used this rigid (turtle) way of trading/placing and not my market feel to purely show the effect of money managing itself in a random market move, all we do know about price is it will move, this basic strategy shows that if we manage the money to try to produce the profit and not battle the pair to try to produce a profit, it will happen easier with the correct understanding of how money works, unlike other businesses we are very fortunate in FX in that we can buy and sell something at the same time (in a variety of ways), effectively cancelling out/crystallising the loss of the bad product at any point we chose, this gives us far greater flexibility in being able to produce an overall profit as fti said our job as traders is to produce a profit not win every battle.

In the demos after the experiment showing how this is possible I started to trade using real touch and feel trading as I do in my live stuff, here scouts are very much expendable for the exact reasons you pointed out, I can lose 2 or 3 or more in wrongly timed entries and very easily produce a 5x/10x or more result and when my scout tells me the timing is correct i attack, this requires being able to take a good reliable read of the now situation without fooling ourselves we are still right when we clearly have bad timing, this overriding bias to continue and not miss out with something we all have is partly due to ego and partly due to the way we are wired up to think/re-act (the video I last posted explains all this), so I know I trade differently to most and I know why, this is because I trade solely for the benefit and enhancement of my account by managing my money in the market not wanting to win everything I touch/do, I do not care where the market goes or what it does, as a trader I need to control risk (this comes at you from many areas, including me!) and make the best outcome I possibly can for the situations I put myself in, I have done all the wait and recover in only one direction thing, that wastes time and is hard to implement the longer it takes (AOW), time in the market is money at the end of the day and while in recovery it is hard to trade other opportunities that may arise while doing/thinking of a recovery so i just 'trade', I do not trade to win the final battle in every pair, I trade to produce profit on that journey by any means, the battle/trade ends when my last man is home and that is it no flags out just onto the next battle, along the way I forage on the enemies supplies and do try to capture their men while at the same time adjusting my own risk by offsetting my men against theirs where possible, most of this stuff is from AOW, what matters is the best outcome for my account (the state) not what I want or think I should be doing, survive and you have won, it is no good to us being a dead hero... some trades are easy (the right and ready ones) and some take longer to conclude that is all.

What I am describing above takes a complete mindset change, something I believe fti's thread tries to make us see.. but to change something we must first understand it, the money management itself is just one part of what is needed to make this work for us, by nature we are interferers in things with a 'fight or flight' instinct, this must be controlled and to do that we must know how and why we work the way we do, then the self-reflection can allow us to adjust ourselves as needed.

As your last line states.. to exploit the edge fully takes many skillsets to achieve it.

Regards

Phil.

hi phil,

thanks phil, i think i gained more insight into what fti is trying to teach us. the 3 basic ingredients, mo (pulse of markets and dancing), mm (what you showed here, is mm + some dancing), and mindset (risk control till opportunity arises). and i know where i am lacking now too.

Hi CookieMonsta

no problem, I happy that my journal may of helped you out a bit my friend, but please remember I have no personal training from fti other than what all can see on his thread, I have not even exchanged a PM with him, so all is open and there for everyone to see, my journal is just full of what I believe his thread has taught me.

The reason I changed my journal from posting my live account trades to doing an open demo account is because after meeting someone a while ago who works in London doing this for 30 years and is head of his own team, I realised that showing entries only was probably not much help to anyone, he confirmed to me that I was pretty much doing the right things and I realised I actually needed this confirmation, I guess others also need this so hence what I am doing know is totally open in the demo.

So when you focus on trading your account/money only there are things that can help like the plot of the trades and their curve, this really helped me develop my trading strategy and understand the money side of things, so ideally we want to see a nice steady curve, if the curve flattens out for a while it means you are taking too many break even trades and you need to take a closer look at what you are doing, often you spot a bias problem very early doing this, if the curve is erratic you have messed up often by letting a badly timed trade run away from you and failing to stop the bleeding quick enough, you account and this plot will not lie to you even though you may be fooling yourself, use it as the spy in your own camp to track your mindset, review it weekly and study it a bit closer monthly.

Below is the plot for the demo account i am using now, the stats are there too but they are not that important it is the curve on the chart we need to concern ourselves with.

Below that is my plot for another account for last year, in this you can see my mindset was pretty steady and in a good place all year, this is because i watch this and do what is needed if there is problem i see developing in it.

Regards

Phil.

Hi Phil,

Impressive results.

I'm curious though, for your live account, do you have a pull the plug number? Like when you cut losses to protect the account.

Hi CookieMonsta

Thanks my friend but please look at the curve and what it tells you along the way not what I achieved.

No, no rigid figure to cut or do anything on, I use the now situation to manage only, that is not to say I do not cut a loss trade, you can see a couple in my curve above, if I get caught out by some unexpected news that produces a big move I may cut some or all, trading like this tends to look after itself once you get used to it, I am very strict about not letting the price turn and run me over, no greed just take the leg in front of me and move on be it 1 or 100 pips, I do not care what it does after that so long as I got some crumbs, most of the time it is ants work taking little and often to build that nest and protect the queen.

The reverse trade (when needed) protects the account if you avoid the riskier trading practices, this in effect could be reversed a number of times with the price move but it is best practice to offset whenever possible to lower/recalculate the skew as i have shown in the later demo trades, note I am trading small for 10k account, there is a good reason for that.. in the experiment you could see how quickly the numbers can escalate.

Regards

Phil.

hi phil,

thanks for the reply.

i see, you stop it from hitting you really hard, dead in the tracks right in the first place, that is you do not let the damage get so out of hand that it becomes a handful to recover from, but simply cut loss and reinstate later to recover the position. easier to recover from a small loss than it is from a huge loss. and the winners takes care of themselves.

Hi CookieMonsta

Yes, and for that you need the other skillsets.

The trick is as you say try to never let it get out of hand in the first place and be prepared 'by any means'.

fti's rules
1. protect account
2. protect account
3. do not forget rules 1 and 2.

Regards

Phil.

U/J ....