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(binned per thread starter's request) Sign of a profitable tradin

  • #41
  • Jun 27, 2017 10:05pm Jun 27, 2017 10:05pm
Quoting brody477
{quote} I'll do you one better, I will make 1000 trades and come out with a profit... oh wait you don't accept TEs because "reasons". Guess I better waste my time and personally sit you down to show you an arbitrary and quite frankly low sample pool so you can get your rocks off . Seriously but your test is flawed statstically speaking 2:1 rr means 33% chance of success and to get 3 out of 5 using a simple binomial probability calculation you have 16.13% of people getting it right based purely on random chance.... so apparently 16% of the...
Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3 or 3 out of 5 is 60% Maybe you got it mixed up. Anyway tks for your inputs and assertions.
RRR 0f 1:3 is you risk 1 to get 3.......simpleton way of calculation. Sorry.

GS
  • #42
  • Jun 27, 2017 10:12pm Jun 27, 2017 10:12pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3 or 3 out of 5 is 60% Maybe you got it mixed up. Anyway tks for your inputs and assertions. GS
I may be confused than, if you could clarify a sl/tp RR of 1:2 means that you place a sl at 10pips and tp at 20pips? Giving you a 33% success rate per trade? Or am I misinformed?

Following that if you were to take 5 trades the odds of winning 3, 4, and 5 times out of 5 would be solved using binomial probabilit.
Trading is a Zero sum game. Someone winning means someone losing.
  • #43
  • Jun 28, 2017 12:49am Jun 28, 2017 12:49am
You can have 100 $1 losses and then have 1 big $300 win and be called a profitable trader. It depends on your trade sizes and how you manage your losses.
  • #44
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:06am Jun 28, 2017 1:06am
I see another issue with the idea you are suggesting. You never specify exactly which area you are referring to by a successful trader.

Your doubt is on....
The trader's trading skills itself? - Charting. Technical/Fundamental analysis skills. Risk management. Psychology.
His or her general tips on trading matters? Basic, intermediate or advanced?
A particular trading system he or she is teaching?
His or her forecasts on the market?

Your first post never specify any specific area, and implies suggesting all of the areas to be grouped altogether, which shouldn't be, because they are different sets of skills.

A good trader with good trading skills will not perform well with a terrible trading system. For example, a trading system which dictates jumping into a trend too late. His or her P&L might be net loss, but no huge drawdown because he or she manages the risk well.

A bad trader with bad trading habits will still get mediocre P&L even if one is using a good trading system, because he or she can't control his or her emotion and can't manage risk properly.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #45
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:51am Jun 28, 2017 1:51am
Quoting AlastorFate
I see another issue with the idea you are suggesting. You never specify exactly which area you are referring to by a successful trader. Your doubt is on.... The trader's trading skills itself? - Charting. Technical/Fundamental analysis skills. Risk management. Psychology. His or her general tips on trading matters? Basic, intermediate or advanced? A particular trading system he or she is teaching? His or her forecasts on the market? Your first post never specify any specific area, and implies suggesting all of the areas to be grouped altogether,...
No worries just as I had mentioned earlier that many would think that my method is flawed and until such time when that somebody who can understand the merits of my method then I would have most likely met my match. Take your time and good luck with your trading......thank you again for your time and effort.

GS
  • #46
  • Jun 28, 2017 2:07am Jun 28, 2017 2:07am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Ok you are a rockstar trader by your own admission but I personally still remain unconvinced. Oh by the way the SL in my method can be moved only and when the minimum RR of 1:2 is reached. Thank you again. GS
Care to explain why you don't consider a strategy where SLs are moved (to Breakeven or whatever) until 1:2 is reached? Reducing risk and more importantly, the overall account exposure is a important element for multi-position traders to be successful
Staying in my lane...
  • #47
  • Jun 28, 2017 2:28am Jun 28, 2017 2:28am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Care to explain why you don't consider a strategy where SLs are moved (to Breakeven or whatever) until 1:2 is reached? Reducing risk and more importantly, the overall account exposure is a important element for multi-position traders to be successful
Very good and pertinent question. The RRR of 1:2 standard use by me is quite easily attainable by me, in fact in most cases its min 1:3. If and when I am wrong in my trade means two things, firstly I am caught by CB`s aggressive interventions or secondly I had entered into a highly speculative trade whereby I speculated the market will turn without waiting for a confirmation instead of mine usual high probability one. Hope to have answer your interests.

Thank you.

GS
  • #48
  • Jun 28, 2017 2:30am Jun 28, 2017 2:30am
Its all perspective.
If i make $5-10k a month with 90% drawdown am I a good or bad trader?
Some say bad cos DD too high.
I say good because I only keep enough money in broker to cover margin requirement.
myfxbook DOT com/members/TopTradeBot
  • #49
  • Jun 29, 2017 3:50am Jun 29, 2017 3:50am
The reason for me using a standard of RRR of 1:2 is to ensure a prolong sustainable profit which by my definition is what successful trader is all about. Sure there are plenty of traders who can run profit from a less favorable RRR but they will not be able to sustain a long term profitability over times. Hope it helps explain my rationale.

Tks and green pips to you always....

GS
  • #50
  • Jun 29, 2017 8:08am Jun 29, 2017 8:08am
There is no need for a successful trader to prove it to anyone. As a matter of fact, they want to keep a low profile.
  • #51
  • Jun 29, 2017 8:31am Jun 29, 2017 8:31am
Quoting Abhimanyu
There is no need for a successful trader to prove it to anyone. As a matter of fact, they want to keep a low profile.
In my humble view successful traders are those who have at least 6 month trading without gap and consisting profitable on monthly basis...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -299
  • #52
  • Jun 29, 2017 8:35am Jun 29, 2017 8:35am
Quoting mohsinali
{quote} In my humble view successful traders are those who have at least 6 month trading without gap and consisting profitable on monthly basis...
6 months are nothing, I would say 3+ years...And there's nothing wrong with having losing months, it's absolutely normal.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #53
  • Jun 29, 2017 8:53am Jun 29, 2017 8:53am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Let's try this one last time. I am not questioning a RR of 2+. that is pure math. Reward HAS to be greater than Risk in order to be profitable in the long run (although I will dispute this common theory some other day). The question is specific to the movement of SL after "minimum RR has reached 1:2". Why this type of trader is profitable in your view versus another profitable trader who moves SL to BE after 5 pips and shoots for 10x reward with far lower risk and duration of exposure. EXPOSURE is NOT Risk... i hope you understand the difference....
Alright I understand exactly where you are coming from and I believe the difference lies in the definition of how you and I define success. I need to be fully convinced by my standard if that somebody is really successful just as he/she claimed to be. Moving the SL before achieving the desired RRR somehow blurred the need of which I need to be fully convinced. Hope you can see my view from this perspective. Tks for your view and I appreciate your interest.

GS
  • #54
  • Jun 29, 2017 8:59am Jun 29, 2017 8:59am
Quoting Abhimanyu
There is no need for a successful trader to prove it to anyone. As a matter of fact, they want to keep a low profile.
You are absolutely right about the need for successful trader to prove their ability. But if you claimed that you are successful then you will have to prove that you are indeed what you claimed to be.

GS
  • #55
  • Jun 29, 2017 9:30am Jun 29, 2017 9:30am
At FF is just one way to show what you know - Trade Explorer, at least in 3-6 months.
  • #56
  • Sep 12, 2017 11:52pm Sep 12, 2017 11:52pm
The result speaks for itself and I seriously should be less concerned about others making all sort of false claims. Its not something I am happy about but at least I have proven my own point.

Cheers and trade away happily everybody.

GS

Oh by the way I am quite surprised that Twee told me that I cannot quit FF and have all my posts erased. Oh well......guess I am stuck here.
  • #57
  • Sep 13, 2017 12:13am Sep 13, 2017 12:13am
A good trader won't even bother signing up for this website, reading all those posts and doing all those activities you require to prove he/she is good at trading. What does the good trader get in return by doing that?

It will only attract some random dudes who got lucky in a demo account showing some good numbers just like myself
Forex? Futures?
Jeremy Jongsuk Oh All Time Return: 599.2%
  • #58
  • Sep 13, 2017 12:23am Sep 13, 2017 12:23am
Quoting genghistar
Have you ever wish for a veritable method to gauge or ascertain if somebody is indeed a successful trader as they claimed to be. We have many traders here who attached their TE as a proof of their trades BUT how do we know if he is successful or not. I have a fairly good idea to enable myself to know if someone is successful or not without looking at his TE or a duly certified P n L statement. I have often wondered if there is anybody who can also do the same and I will be extremely excited and grateful if I can find someone who can also do the...
There isn't any way to verify if a stranger on the internet is a profitable trader (as far as I know). However there are ways of knowing who isn't profitable.

Anyone that claims they consistently average a return over 5% a month is a liar. Anyone who claims they never have losing months is a liar. Anyone who says they are profitable by trading without a stop loss has either not been trading long or is a liar.
  • #59
  • Sep 13, 2017 12:32am Sep 13, 2017 12:32am
Quoting TradeForex1
Its all perspective. If i make $5-10k a month with 90% drawdown am I a good or bad trader? Some say bad cos DD too high. I say good because I only keep enough money in broker to cover margin requirement.
It doesn't matter how much you withdraw per month or how much your drawdown is. If you ultimately withdraw less than you put in you are not profitable (vice versa).
  • #60
  • Sep 13, 2017 1:36am Sep 13, 2017 1:36am
Quoting genghistar
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless...
5 calls is a tiny tiny tiny sample, if I tossed 3 heads out of 5 coin tosses would you regard me as a professional coin flipper?
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
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