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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #24,841
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:35pm Jun 26, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting BabyDragon
This means that nzd/USD will go up and GBP/nzd will go down?
The Kiwi and the GBP/NZD are highly correlated, on the negative side, that much is true.
That said I really don't care about the fundamentals, I am only interested in price action.

Quoting BabyDragon
What is simple?
Simple is not having 25 stupid indicators and 50 different trendlines on the chart, for a start.
But believe or not, some traders will do just that, because for them more is better.

In reality, all these indicators and trendlines only create extreme confusion.
  • #24,842
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:36pm Jun 26, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting BabyDragon
{quote} Alright. NZD trade balance is supposed to be higher than forecast. This means that nzd/USD will go up and GBP/nzd will go down? What is simple? Can you show an example?
If it was that easy, everyone would be rich. Look for imbalances in the supply and demand equation. You will have your answer then. All news does is provide liquidity for price to get to where it was going to go to anyway.
  • #24,843
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:50pm Jun 26, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting Denden2012
All news does is provide liquidity for price to get to where it was going to go to anyway.
Yep, the market always goes where it wants to go 100% of the time.

Alright, enough joking, back to work, let's make some money...
  • #24,844
  • Edited 4:37pm Jun 26, 2017 4:16pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting Mastropiero
{quote} But if you trade on a 5 min chart, you still support on the daily or weekly trend right? Or you dont even look those?
Nope, if I day-trade on the 5-min for example I won't even look at the 1h chart, let alone the daily or weekly charts!

Yes I know, some traders are going to say : "But you need to see the "big picture" first, come on!"

Bulls..t, there is no evidence to support the idea that looking at higher time frames gives any specific advantage whatsoever, period.
Trading with just one (1) time frame is complicated enough as it is, without adding extra layers of complexity (that will only create more confusion/indecision anyway).
  • #24,845
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:49pm Jun 26, 2017 4:49pm
So far GBP/JPY has been unable to break through the high of the day (142.35), not once but twice.

The third attempt could be the right one, the Dragon is just getting ready to make its move.

The Yen is still cruising at high altitude by the way.
  • #24,846
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:10pm Jun 26, 2017 5:10pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Are you serious? Go with the flow my friend, if you cannot beat them join them. Position closed at 142.35, +35 pips, possible long re-entry later.
Waiting to see if it's going to hit 142.50 it hasn't broken the weekly high for a number of weeks... and we are on the borderline of up or down... I'll wait it out.
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,847
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:25pm Jun 26, 2017 5:25pm
Don't get me wrong. If you can make money on 5 minutes chart that's good for you but I think it's too much risky why? Because if u waiting for a signal bullish or bearish when u got it the trend already gone 70% of it and you have very small amounts of pips like 5-10. So there for new trader like me increased lot size and wipe their account.
  • #24,848
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:26pm Jun 26, 2017 5:26pm
Quoting Quickiepip
{quote} Waiting to see if it's going to hit 142.50 it hasn't broken the weekly high for a number of weeks... and we are on the borderline of up or down... I'll wait it out.
Still looking for that pullback, I guess?

I just bought GBP/JPY at 142.30, 23 pip stop.
The Dragon is going to soar any minute now...
  • #24,849
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:38pm Jun 26, 2017 5:38pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The Kiwi and the GBP/NZD are highly correlated, on the negative side, that much is true. That said I really don't care about the fundamentals, I am only interested in price action. {quote} Simple is not having 25 stupid indicators and 50 different trendlines on the chart, for a start. But believe or not, some traders will do just that, because for them more is better. In reality, all these indicators and trendlines only create extreme confusion.
The best and most profitable system on this entire site is here
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=463573

Loaded with indicators all working in tandem on multiple time frames. To each his own I guess, but I'll stick with this system forever.
  • #24,850
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:39pm Jun 26, 2017 5:39pm
Quoting Situhin
but I think it's too much risky
On the contrary, trading with small time frames decreases your risk, since your stop is much much smaller.
If you are wrong you lose what, 10 pips or so, on average?

But if you are wrong on the weekly time frames you could lose 500 pips easy. Higher time frames require much much bigger stops.

Quoting Situhin
Because if u waiting for a signal bullish or bearish when u got it the trend already gone 70% of it
Who told you that? If your system is good you will of course be able to join the trend at an early stage, and with limited risk.
On the other hand if you are using a profitable reversal system your risk/reward ratio is even better.
  • #24,851
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:42pm Jun 26, 2017 5:42pm
Quoting Situhin
Because if u waiting for a signal bullish or bearish when u got it the trend already gone 70% of it.

So, I'll take that 30% as opposed to try to pick tops and bottoms.
  • #24,852
  • Edited 6:43pm Jun 26, 2017 5:52pm | Edited 6:43pm
Quoting pipmaster77
So, I'll take that 30% as opposed to try to pick tops and bottoms.
Stock brokers noticed a long time ago that traders do indeed spend most of their time trying to pick tops/bottoms.

Why?

Because we humans hate to buy "expensive" stuff (buying on strength) or sell our stuff at a cheaper price (selling weakness).

In other words, following the trend, up or down (and letting our profits run while cutting our losses short) is psychologically hard to do for most people, that's why trading is so difficult.

Instead, we prefer to buy stuff at a "bargain" price and sell it (or short it) when it's "overpriced". The problem is that very few traders (think Buffet for example) can do this with any degree of accuracy and consistency.
  • #24,853
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:27pm Jun 26, 2017 6:27pm
Come on you 142.35 short sellers out there, you never quit do you?
Let it go before it's too late.
  • #24,854
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:47pm Jun 26, 2017 6:47pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Come on you 142.35 short sellers out there, you never quit do you? Let it go before it's too late.
Significant shorts have already played themselves out. Whatever is left are most likely retail stragglers. We should have no problem punching through the current supply.

I am anticipating the next area of resistance at around 142.95 on the 15m chart then 143.20 which will slow the price down on H1. 143.41 is a rally base drop so we may see a retracement to current price level around that price unless price keeps creating new demand zones on its way up. I am anticipating up until 144.51 then down for a bit.
  • #24,855
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:48pm Jun 26, 2017 6:48pm
Quoting Denden2012
{quote} If it was that easy, everyone would be rich. Look for imbalances in the supply and demand equation. You will have your answer then. All news does is provide liquidity for price to get to where it was going to go to anyway.
Where can i read the supply and demand equation?
  • #24,856
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:51pm Jun 26, 2017 6:51pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Come on you 142.35 short sellers out there, you never quit do you? Let it go before it's too late.
I am short at 142.28 and still holding.
However, when you said that the Dragon will soar anytime, how many pips do you mean by that?

And grateful for all the info. I have to go back five pages, I have forgotten all that I had read.

Plus, what do you mean by price action?
  • #24,857
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:53pm Jun 26, 2017 6:53pm
Quoting Denden2012
We should have no problem punching through the current supply.
The bulls are coming that's for sure.

And they are like hungry zombies, so whatever little resistance is left will disappear quickly.
  • #24,858
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:58pm Jun 26, 2017 6:58pm
Quoting BabyDragon
{quote} Where can i read the supply and demand equation?
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=590109
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428204

This should keep you busy for a while.
  • #24,859
  • Jun 26, 2017 7:01pm Jun 26, 2017 7:01pm
Quoting BabyDragon
I am short at 142.28 and still holding.
Oh, so you are the one preventing the Dragon from going up,eh?
Hahahaha, just kidding.

Quoting BabyDragon
you said that the Dragon will soar anytime, how many pips do you mean by that?
How many? But at least a thousand pips my friend, why?
Joke aside, the next possible stop is of course 142.50 then 142.80.

Quoting BabyDragon
what do you mean by price action?
Well, you know, the usual stuff : Swings high/low, test of resistance/support lines, price behavior around certain psychological levels, etc...
  • #24,860
  • Jun 26, 2017 7:03pm Jun 26, 2017 7:03pm
Yep, that's it, Houston we have a take off!
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