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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #24,781
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:46am Jun 26, 2017 3:46am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} I read an interesting article on the now defunct Currency Trader Magazine : backtests reveal that these pivot points have very little predictive value, except on very strong trends, where these R3 and S3 levels can be useful.
Looooooool it will go down. mate it wont go past 142.732. Trust me. Until the UK is sorted out there is no way investors will let it exceed past that!!! I am happy I don't have to wait days for it to go up. It will spend the rest of the week going down unless MAY says something stupid lol.

There is key data out on Friday which is the GDP which could push it up significantly higher or lower. Thursday will be my cut off day maximum because key data comes out at midnight for japan.
  • #24,782
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:49am Jun 26, 2017 3:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} I don't really pay attention to what other people have found, only on my own empirical analysis, and pivots, when combined with other indicators such as fibonacci, moving averages, trend lines etc, can be very powerful, especially R2/S2.
Perhaps, but when you add subjective elements like trendlines or even Fibonacci (where do we start the calculation exactly?), it becomes extremely hard, if not impossible, to backtest and validate such trading ideas, unless the trader has already a large number of completed trades (500 to 1000) to support his theory.
  • #24,783
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:50am Jun 26, 2017 3:50am
Quoting cat
{quote} Very kind of you. Thank you!

Welcome...Happy Trading & Good Luck : )
  • #24,784
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:02am Jun 26, 2017 4:02am
Pivots originated during the time of the floor traders. They where mainly used by Bond and GC traders not really in the currency markets.
They are still used as reference points on those markets.

The institutional traders do not use Fib ratios.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #24,785
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:06am Jun 26, 2017 4:06am
Quoting Samson85
I looked at the chart wrong. Sorry. There is a support and resistance line that wont let it exceed anyways. {image}

that chart is us-Jpy not Gbpjpy???
  • #24,786
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:11am Jun 26, 2017 4:11am
EVERYONE DO THE BEAR DANCE PLEASE!... Thanks : )
  • #24,787
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:15am Jun 26, 2017 4:15am
Quoting Mr Breakout
The Yen is still going higher while GBP/USD is somehow preventing GBP/JPY from going up, at least for now.
i think USD/JPY has reached its limit and will pull back anytime. if not now then there is USD data in three hours which is expected to weaken the dollar i.e. USD/Yen will come down. However, a weakened USD will push GBP/USD up. So i am not expecting GBP/JPY to go short for the next three four hours. Once London time finishes then we can expect things to get a little fiesty.

Additionally, there is GBP data tomorrow so a lot of volatility is expected then and we might see the markets settling at new levels.
  • #24,788
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:20am Jun 26, 2017 4:20am
Quoting BabyDragon
{quote} i think USD/JPY has reached its limit and will pull back anytime. if not now then there is USD data in three hours which is expected to weaken the dollar i.e. USD/Yen will come down. However, a weakened USD will push GBP/USD up. So i am not expecting GBP/JPY to go short for the next three four hours. Once London time finishes then we can expect things to get a little fiesty. Additionally, there is GBP data tomorrow so a lot of volatility is expected then and we might see the markets settling at new levels.

Thanks for the info... appreciate it... : )
  • #24,789
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:23am Jun 26, 2017 4:23am
Quoting karasinga
Considering to short around 142.062
basis of analysis
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best wishes
It is not over until I win
  • #24,790
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:24am Jun 26, 2017 4:24am
Quoting karasinga
{quote} basis of analysis {image} best wishes
Thanks for the chart & lets hope it goes bearish ... good luck : )
  • #24,791
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:28am Jun 26, 2017 4:28am
Here you go.

Sorry I am trading and typing at same time. All seems well with the chart now and its going in my favor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,792
  • Jun 26, 2017 4:34am Jun 26, 2017 4:34am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} So you think the downtrend is about to continue, correct? Let's take another look at your daily chart. After drawing the downtrend line we can see : 1: A breakout to the upside 2: A pullback to the breakout line (red line). 3: A short test of the breakout line and then GBP/JPY went up. So now we have a possible bullish trend in progress! Same chart, same time frame but different trading conclusions. Oh well, who said TA was easy? {image}
If it was easy, we'd be on the beach, not posting BS on our computers....
  • #24,793
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:00am Jun 26, 2017 5:00am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Perhaps, but when you add subjective elements like trendlines or even Fibonacci (where do we start the calculation exactly?), it becomes extremely hard, if not impossible, to backtest and validate such trading ideas, unless the trader has already a large number of completed trades (500 to 1000) to support his theory.


There are no theories in trading, because when something works consistently over time, it is no longer a theory. And trendlines, fibonaccii etc are not subjective to the trader, they may be in calculation, but on the screens we view they are as real as the fingers on our hand and traders use them to base their trades upon.
  • #24,794
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:01am Jun 26, 2017 5:01am
Everyone might as well just cancel their trades because the DUP will be joining the conservatives today!!!

Because it could shoot up the price!!
  • #24,795
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:08am Jun 26, 2017 5:08am
Quoting Samson85
Everyone might as well just cancel their trades because the DUP will be joining the conservatives today!!! Because it could shoot up the price!!

what are you saying Samson?
  • #24,796
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:18am Jun 26, 2017 5:18am
looks like its trying to reach 142.500 at least ?????
  • #24,797
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:20am Jun 26, 2017 5:20am
Quoting Samson85
Everyone might as well just cancel their trades because the DUP will be joining the conservatives today!!! Because it could shoot up the price!!
IMHO, any price between 142.137 and 142.274 is pure value
It is not over until I win
  • #24,798
  • Jun 26, 2017 5:23am Jun 26, 2017 5:23am
Quoting karasinga
{quote} IMHO, any price between 142.137 and 142.274 is pure value

Area of value for a sale or buy tho?... :L
  • #24,799
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:25am Jun 26, 2017 6:25am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The only reasonable way to profit from overbought/oversold oscillators (like RSI) is to use them as a trend continuation indicator, never as a trend reversal tool! For example, In an uptrend : buy (or add to position) when RSI goes below 30 and then re-emerges from that oversold area. In a downtrend: Short (or add to position) when RSI goes above 70 and then re-emerges from that overbought area. In other words we are waiting for a pullback and a confirmation from RSI to trade WITH the trend.
So true, never trade against the trend. It's so easy to make money with the trend, never understood why folks try to pick tops and bottoms.
  • #24,800
  • Jun 26, 2017 6:29am Jun 26, 2017 6:29am
I assume that the price will continue to move up to the point 143,408. And the nearest point is 142,634. But now the price goes to the point 141.844. And there is a possibility that price will go lower to the point 141,425. However, I am sure that the price will go up.
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