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(binned per thread starter's request) Sign of a profitable tradin

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 24, 2017 11:34pm Jun 24, 2017 11:34pm
Have you ever wish for a veritable method to gauge or ascertain if somebody is indeed a successful trader as they claimed to be. We have many traders here who attached their TE as a proof of their trades BUT how do we know if he is successful or not.
I have a fairly good idea to enable myself to know if someone is successful or not without looking at his TE or a duly certified P n L statement. I have often wondered if there is anybody who can also do the same and I will be extremely excited and grateful if I can find someone who can also do the same.
Please share your views so as to empower more aspiring trader to make a better and more informed decision in becoming a better trader.

GS
  • #2
  • Jun 25, 2017 5:02am Jun 25, 2017 5:02am
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless whether it is an individual or a corporation.

I don't have high expectation of anyone coming forward to share their views here and if I don't receive any respond soon I will ask admin to delete this thread.

GS.
  • #3
  • Jun 25, 2017 7:48am Jun 25, 2017 7:48am
I wonder how many successful traders woke up today, turned on the computer, opened Forexfactory, saw this question and thought: "What can I do to earn the trust and confidence of genghistar? How could I prove myself to him and to others, that I'm successful?"

You are not the first to ask this question, but this never ever ever will entice any successful traders to share their strategy. It will only attract more bullshitters, they attach their fake TE and statement, and then mention that by the way they have a course, or an indi, or live trading for sale.

Regarding your second post:

1. You can't tell from 5 trades if somebody is successful or not.
2. What if somebody has 3 losses and 2 wins, but still achieve 1:2 RR? That is still a profitable method with 40% winrate.

But to conclude, no successful trader will be fired up to prove others anything.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #4
  • Jun 25, 2017 7:55am Jun 25, 2017 7:55am
Quoting genghistar
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless...
Your method is a bit flawed.

There are so many ways to trade and manage trades, specifying a minimum RR of 1:2 would leave some profitable traders out of your successful traders category. Trading is a numbers game, if you have a win rate that supports a small RR why not go for it? And who is to say that bigger RR is better? There are failed threads claiming that 1:20+ RR will make you profitable.

Also the 5 live trade calls wouldn't show much, if your trader has less than a 60% win rate out of 100 trades they will lose more than 40 of them. Do you think that trader would never see 5 trades in a row end up as losses?

Its tough for a new trader to really know if the trader they are taking advice from knows what they are talking about, but eventually you will start to piece together who does and doesn't have a clue to what they are doing. I do wish more people would show their TE's, but hey I don't show mine.. but I'm also not out giving advise to other traders either.
  • #5
  • Jun 25, 2017 8:04am Jun 25, 2017 8:04am
Simple to see a good trader, he cuts his risk to zero really fast, takes tiny losses makes gains which are bigger than his losses. Keeps growing the account. Also good traders take money off a trade then let it run, so even if they don't hit the 1:2 ratio they still get paid for turning up.
  • #6
  • Jun 25, 2017 10:48am Jun 25, 2017 10:48am
Quoting Darastonius
I wonder how many successful traders woke up today, turned on the computer, opened Forexfactory, saw this question and thought: "What can I do to earn the trust and confidence of genghistar? How could I prove myself to him and to others, that I'm successful?" You are not the first to ask this question, but this never ever ever will entice any successful traders to share their strategy. It will only attract more bullshitters, they attach their fake TE and statement, and then mention that by the way they have a course, or an indi, or live trading...
^He's right, you know.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #7
  • Jun 25, 2017 11:06am Jun 25, 2017 11:06am
Use the criteria how professional trading companies are measured for profitability rate. = Annual return =

Losing trades, losing days, losing weeks, losing months are alright. Bad run do happen occasionally. If you get net profit at the end of a year, you are a 'potential' profitable trader. With every extra consistent year of net profit, your status as a profitable trader will be increased in veracity.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #8
  • Jun 25, 2017 11:39am Jun 25, 2017 11:39am
Quoting genghistar
Have you ever wish for a veritable method to gauge or ascertain if somebody is indeed a successful trader as they claimed to be.

Not really.

It's never been relevant to me.

I just assume that almost anyone promoting things online to the trading community is a pro-marketer, not a pro-trader (and that would certainly be true of about 95% of the "commercial content" here).

The guys interviewed by Jack Schwager in his Market Wizards book, on the other hand, I take as being almost certainly genuine and vouched for. But they're not really advertising their "services" online, are they?
  • #9
  • Jun 25, 2017 12:12pm Jun 25, 2017 12:12pm
first of all - low sample size. 5 trades is just pure luck...

second - it is a huge mistake to think you can get a good win/loss ratio with 1:2 return. you`ll be less than 50% win for sure... except for some low sample size and luck.
  • #10
  • Jun 25, 2017 12:39pm Jun 25, 2017 12:39pm
Real money making traders don't teach.
It's a waste of time and nerves.
  • #11
  • Jun 25, 2017 1:32pm Jun 25, 2017 1:32pm
Good question. I can tell you how to spot an UNSUCCESFUL trader.

he/she has one or more of these traits:

- he/she mocks historical data
- he/she talks about making more than 100%/year in a safe / sustainable way
- he/she wants to change his/her natural behaviour in order to become the perfect trader: risk adverse, not greedy, disciplined etc. etc. (IMO he/she will just become insane, eventually)
  • #12
  • Jun 25, 2017 8:09pm Jun 25, 2017 8:09pm
Thanks for all the inputs and I admit there is a certain truth in all the points raised and it is precisely this that anybody can claim to be successful and worse some will try to scam you of your hard earned money. My method of 5 sample trades is rather small to form a benchmark but coupled with an immovable SL and the minimum 1:2 RR it will take someone with some credible and solid skill to be able to do that. You can try it out yourself both openly here in the forum or in private to test your own skill. At least this is the minimum threshold for me in order to know if someone is successful or not or like they say separating the chaff from the wheat. Some will need more samples size to be convinced and it is all good that it is so. Even with this simple and small sample size I have failed to get any self proclaimed successful trader to undergo this test. All they show is some trade entries with some profits and that's all. Well the key thing is to very careful in trusting your money to some strangers here in this forum.

Stay safe.

GS.
  • #13
  • Jun 25, 2017 10:09pm Jun 25, 2017 10:09pm
Quoting genghistar
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless...
Your trading will greatly improve once you stop being so concerned about all of these. Occasionally, the price doesn't do exactly what you expect it to and it's a demonstration of one's skill to make the necessary adjustments. Just focus on good entrances and get what you can from each trade; the greater your skill the more you'll squeeze out.

Part of the reason you probably won't get any takers for your challenge is that successful traders (me included) respect their craft and grandstanding is belittling their achievement.

Rob
  • #14
  • Jun 25, 2017 11:12pm Jun 25, 2017 11:12pm
Quoting Hurst
Also good traders take money off a trade then let it run.
This assumption has a flaw as well. Some traders also do not scale in or out, but instead keep their whole position on for every trade and are still profitable.
  • #15
  • Jun 25, 2017 11:41pm Jun 25, 2017 11:41pm
Quoting Rob Mondave
{quote} Your trading will greatly improve once you stop being so concerned about all of these. Occasionally, the price doesn't do exactly what you expect it to and it's a demonstration of one's skill to make the necessary adjustments. Just focus on good entrances and get what you can from each trade; the greater your skill the more you'll squeeze out. Part of the reason you probably won't get any takers for your challenge is that successful traders (me included) respect their craft and grandstanding is belittling their achievement. Rob
I am glad to hear that you are a successful trader and you can actually help me to be totally convinced by taking this test starting now maybe?? Just 5 simple trade calls with immovable SL and a min TP of 1:2 RR....you hit 3 out of 5 and I will submit to all your successes.

Anybody is welcomed to take this test here.

Thanks,

GS
  • #16
  • Jun 26, 2017 12:03am Jun 26, 2017 12:03am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} I am glad to hear that you are a successful trader and you can actually help me to be totally convinced by taking this test starting now maybe?? Just 5 simple trade calls with immovable SL and a min TP of 1:2 RR....you hit 3 out of 5 and I will submit to all your successes. Anybody is welcomed to take this test here. Thanks, GS
I'm confused.. you want a successful trader to prove themselves with your set of rules?

This also assumes that by your expectations, you're saying no one can be a successful trader if they move stop losses, don't have a minimum 1:2 RR and must win 60% of the time?

Do you realise how silly that sounds?.. This has to be a trolling thread, surely..
  • #17
  • Jun 26, 2017 12:14am Jun 26, 2017 12:14am
Quoting pierre23
{quote} I'm confused.. you want a successful trader to prove themselves with your set of rules? This also assumes that by your expectations, you're saying no one can be a successful trader if they move stop losses, don't have a minimum 1:2 RR and must win 60% of the time? Do you realise how silly that sounds?.. This has to be a trolling thread, surely..
Thank you for your views and this is my set of rules as a benchmark for success. You may not agree with my method and I appreciate that, so unless you can prove that my method is wrong it will remain my method whether you agree or not.

GS
  • #18
  • Jun 26, 2017 12:28am Jun 26, 2017 12:28am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Thank you for your views and this is my set of rules as a benchmark for success. You may not agree with my method and I appreciate that, so unless you can prove that my method is wrong it will remain my method whether you agree or not. GS
No worries, you've made it clear that it's your benchmark for success. For a moment there I thought you meant it was the only benchmark for success, which would have been really ignorant to think Thanks for clearing that up.

Just some feedback to throw out there - anyone who actually trades successfully for a living, I'd say, wouldn't really care for your benchmarks or to prove anything to you. So as you mentioned above you could save some time and just ask the admin to delete the thread, as I too would be very surprised someone has the time of day to prove to you they can trade successfully.

Anyhow, I wish you luck on finding your successful traders
  • #19
  • Jun 26, 2017 12:31am Jun 26, 2017 12:31am
Your measurement for success is completely wrong. The R:R math is a meme created by retail traders, do you think a bank decides to take a trade "only if the pips is double the risk". Of course not, they use currency to hedge other investments. Hedgies are accumulative so that also blows out the way you measure success.

Heres what you should be asking "is anyone profitable y/y over 5 yrs and willing to prove it". There are plenty of these people, but they won't waste their time proving it and even if they did prove it, its impossible to be so mechanical and successful at the same time adhereing to such strict criteria.
  • #20
  • Jun 26, 2017 12:34am Jun 26, 2017 12:34am
Quoting pierre23
{quote} No worries, you've made it clear that it's your benchmark for success. For a moment there I thought you meant it was the only benchmark for success, which would have been really ignorant to think Thanks for clearing that up. Just some feedback to throw out there - anyone who actually trades successfully for a living, I'd say, wouldn't really care for your benchmarks or to prove anything to you. So as you mentioned above you could save some time and just ask the admin to delete the thread, as I too would be very surprised someone...
Tks matey, I think you maybe wrong again. I am not looking for a successful trader. What I am concerned is when somebody claimed to be successful, I will foolishly want them to prove it so I can take their words for it. That's all.

Good luck to u too.

GS
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