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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #19,101
  • Jun 21, 2017 3:49am Jun 21, 2017 3:49am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Wine helps.
Spoken like my Italian mother!

Nothing a crushed grape can't fix
  • #19,102
  • Jun 21, 2017 4:21am Jun 21, 2017 4:21am
t 10-19 A/U is still retracing up, If you are not retrace trade yet ,a sneaky short around here would save you money if it does fail.
It only fails when high is broken
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,103
  • Jun 21, 2017 4:24am Jun 21, 2017 4:24am
Quoting billytt
t 10-19 A/U is still retracing up, If you are not retrace trade yet ,a sneaky short around here would save you money if it does fail. It only fails when high is broken
I have a buy stop at the upper trigger for double lot size with a TP of 5 pips (spread NOT included). From my notes the OTHER side gets +5 pips 90% of the time when OG trigger reverses before 10.
  • #19,104
  • Jun 21, 2017 4:26am Jun 21, 2017 4:26am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I have a buy stop at the upper trigger for double lot size with a TP of 5 pips (spread NOT included). From my notes the OTHER side gets +5 pips 90% of the time when OG trigger reverses before 10.
yes it does, also good for +20 and dont forget you can look for Daily Range High

edit, daily range so far is only 30

edit again zzzz, dont forget , if the high doesnt break and it drops back down, this is what we want really. you can still look for daily range low
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,105
  • Jun 21, 2017 4:35am Jun 21, 2017 4:35am
Quoting billytt
{quote} yes it does, also good for +20 and dont forget you can look for Daily Range High edit, daily range so far is only 30 edit again zzzz, dont forget , if the high doesnt break and it drops back down, this is what we want really. you can still look for daily range low
What is happening on AU right now is why I don't feel too comfortable countering at the Mid Point
  • #19,106
  • Jun 21, 2017 5:30am Jun 21, 2017 5:30am
t 11-28 A/U is similar to yesterday, it looks like the 08-00 bar will be tradeable.
we have news from US later, it is oil related .Australia has oil but more gas n coal. erm lets see.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,107
  • Jun 21, 2017 5:32am Jun 21, 2017 5:32am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} What is happening on AU right now is why I don't feel too comfortable countering at the Mid Point
Bo, countering at the mid point isn't a "universal principle". All pairs behave differently. Countering at the mid point has relevance to E/G because it rarely ever sees a dead stop in its tracks when it reaches that point. You'll have to test for any significance in application to AU. If it doesn't look like the mid point is useful for AU don't use it.

This is where I again mention the power is statistical thinking that billy has blessed us with. Currency pairs are like people they all have different personalities. And this is the point alot of traders fail.

Mr Joe random formulates an idea looking at a EURUSD chart. Might backtest might not. Might do stats might not. But he trades it and it works. So what does he do, he tries to do this same thing on every exchange rate known to man and gets crushed.. why? Because he didn't take the time to realize that when GBP/JPY gets going that bastard reaaaally trends and when USDCAD chops around it will literally drag you from high to low and back all day long.

It's the same thing as if I took a look at your AU stats and thought hey great chance of getting +5 on the other end. Then start packing on lots ontop of my counter when I'm trading E/G. Yeah AU might have 90% chance of giving it up but E/G probably 90% chance it's going to test your resolve lol
  • #19,108
  • Jun 21, 2017 5:40am Jun 21, 2017 5:40am
Quoting billytt
t 11-28 A/U is similar to yesterday, it looks like the 08-00 bar will be tradeable. we have news from US later, it is oil related .Australia has oil but more gas n coal. erm lets see.
I"m new to trading but I know from living in the US that we get a lot of oil from Canada so any news regarding oil coming out of the US I would assume would affect CAD...and vise versa.....any news coming out of Canada regarding oil would affect USD ????
  • #19,109
  • Jun 21, 2017 5:41am Jun 21, 2017 5:41am
[quote=Piphunter00;10002139]{quote} Bo, countering at the mid point isn't a "universal principle". All pairs behave differently. Countering at the mid point has relevance to E/G because it rarely ever sees a dead stop in its tracks when it reaches that point. You'll have to test for any significance in application to AU. If it doesn't look like the mid point is useful for AU don't use it. This is where I again mention the power is statistical thinking that billy has blessed us with. Currency pairs are like people they all have different personalities. And this is the point alot of traders fail. Mr Joe random

Mr Joe Random?,,, luv it, luv it, luv it,
This name will be noted in the future
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,110
  • Jun 21, 2017 5:46am Jun 21, 2017 5:46am
Quoting billytt
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Bo, countering at the mid point isn't a "universal principle". All pairs behave differently. Countering at the mid point has relevance to E/G because it rarely ever sees a dead stop in its tracks when it reaches that point. You'll have to test for any significance in application to AU. If it doesn't look like the mid point is useful for AU don't use it. This is where I again mention the power is statistical thinking that billy has blessed us with. Currency pairs are like people they all have different personalities.
...
he's a shit retail trader that makes loads of schoolboy errors and does his ass trading 15 pairs every week.

Oh and he doesn't keep stats. Very stupid.

He's good with EURUSD tho. LOOOL
  • #19,111
  • Jun 21, 2017 6:14am Jun 21, 2017 6:14am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote}{quote} he's a shit retail trader that makes loads of schoolboy errors and does his ass trading 15 pairs every week. Oh and he doesn't keep stats. Very stupid. He's good with EURUSD tho. LOOOL
lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,112
  • Jun 21, 2017 6:39am Jun 21, 2017 6:39am
t 12-38 A/U low break failed, High triggered and a bit of a retrace. i am not trading it but i did take a point or two entering just before trigger for a steady 1 and a bit yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, dancing tonight
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,113
  • Jun 21, 2017 6:44am Jun 21, 2017 6:44am
catch you people later, i am cooking dinner for my Lady and i need to get the stuff, pie n mash and a bottle of beer lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,114
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:13am Jun 21, 2017 7:13am
Nothing...nothing...for me on The Dead Zone today. Incredible. I realised I was trying to talk myself into taking something, anything and well, that's a no-no. So hey-ho, there ya go.

Closest I got were NU long and well...NU long...that was it. Nothing else.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1DeadZonepreopengoodfor21stJune17.png Size: 34 KB


However I spent so long trying to find an alternative (and that tells you its own story about how strongly I felt about that one) that the bus left without me.

Doesn't matter, Rule #5 as TS would remind me and there's always EJ to scalp (or maybe Claudia has some spare shorts going?). HOLO? 1-2-3? Lunch? Lunch sounds good. Back later.
  • #19,115
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:25am Jun 21, 2017 7:25am
Quoting billytt
t 10-19 A/U is still retracing up, If you are not retrace trade yet ,a sneaky short around here would save you money if it does fail. It only fails when high is broken
OH!!!!! Billy-Stats nail it again! Just, just, stuck its head up for a nano-second (sorry BO).

Attached Image


EDIT: I have to point out that playing it as a WZ trade, you'd have taken the short easily. I should also point out that I am running AU 04:00 true to Billy-Rules only for now. Just sayin'...
  • #19,116
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:40am Jun 21, 2017 7:40am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I"m new to trading but I know from living in the US that we get a lot of oil from Canada so any news regarding oil coming out of the US I would assume would affect CAD...and vise versa.....any news coming out of Canada regarding oil would affect USD ????
OIL inventories will move USDCAD. OIL leads CAD around by the nose. OIL also ties to JPY. What pair teams up most often in peoples' minds with these two? UC and UJ. It's not so much that OIL moves the USD but that it moves the pairs most tied to it. Where the USD comes into it on its own is by the fact that oil is bought and sold in dollars.

You can now see why I also like to include the CADJPY in my list of trading pairs.

AUD is tied to GOLD. The NZD ditto, though less so.

Finally, one of the main ones around that you may not even consider, is the link between Gold and the CHF. Hence why so many funds use USDCHF as a staple.
  • #19,117
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:50am Jun 21, 2017 7:50am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} What is happening on AU right now is why I don't feel too comfortable countering at the Mid Point
As PH says above, countering at the mid-point comes entirely from The Frankfurt Break and EG. I added it to the Dead Zone from there.

I know you have done a power of reading on all these over the last month and so you if you look back at your notes, you will see that although I originally used the Mid-Line on The Dead Zone as a potential counter entry, I do not any longer, except in very rare circumstances (small candle, small/no wick-zones etc).

On anything other than EG, price is more likely to twirl around here and continue on as it is to turn. Lay a fib on the set-up candle and you'll see a lot easier how price is moving in there. It's rare that price turn back on reaching the 50-level. 38.2 is much more likely.
  • #19,118
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:53am Jun 21, 2017 7:53am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I"m new to trading but I know from living in the US that we get a lot of oil from Canada so any news regarding oil coming out of the US I would assume would affect CAD...and vise versa.....any news coming out of Canada regarding oil would affect USD ????
yes indeed, that is fundamentals
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,119
  • Jun 21, 2017 7:56am Jun 21, 2017 7:56am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} OIL inventories will move USDCAD. OIL leads CAD around by the nose. OIL also ties to JPY. What pair teams up most often in peoples' minds with these two? UC and UJ. It's not so much that OIL moves the USD but that it

. Finally, one of the main ones around that you may not even consider, is the link between Gold and the CHF. Hence why so many funds use USDCHF as a staple.


yes indeed, Good info/clues to look for
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,120
  • Jun 21, 2017 8:53am Jun 21, 2017 8:53am
Quoting bojack34
I just finished some more stats! Very interesting stuff. I can definitely see how having this stuff will help in the future. So far today I have added....."how many pips price retraced before making TP. (not including complete reversals) I broke it down into 5 categories....20-25 pips, 25-30 pips, 30-35 pips, 35-40 pips and 40+ pips. Out of the 55 ranges of 20 pips or bigger in the last year only 4 times has price retraced more than 20 pips and then corrected course and reached our original TP. I am using 20 because 20 is going to be my Stationary...
What was the most FREQUENT retrace that was successful? Remember BO no averages. Whatever the most frequent is will tell you about the average. If the most frequent retrace is in the 6 range then the average is useful. But let's say the most frequent retrace is 12 points? What good is taking anything about that average figure into account when most likely your going to see a retrace go to 12?

I would also advise not thinking about a retrace trade till MINIMUM the market has retraced by 5 points, so you don't need price to make your TP to meet your target for the trade. This is were billy will make bank even on a trade that ultimately ends up kicking the bucket. Those lil pops that happen within the range for +5 here +5 there

Just my 2 pence per pip
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