Close at 1.5832
- Post #1,734
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- Sep 19, 2008 3:41am Sep 19, 2008 3:41am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 67 Posts
- Post #1,738
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- Sep 19, 2008 8:28am Sep 19, 2008 8:28am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 67 Posts
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DislikedI'm a newcomer to the thread. I'm up to post 489 in my readings and will continue reading through every single post. I've been trading this system on a IBFX demo the past couple days though and with good success. I like the idea of discussion on the start of a new day.
For those of you who took a trade today what ratio are you using for the USDCHF leg of the trade and how was it determined?Ignored
DislikedOn that Aug 25 trade, I lost on about 2/3 of the profit I have made with this system. Still trying to learn how to "work the position" and I asked about this trade but I did not get answer from Spieler. I took couple profitable long positions after Aug 25 but they could not cover the loss.Ignored
DislikedRR,
I have a formula running that I check before putting on a trade. It takes the dollar value of EURUSD and divides it into the value of USDCHF.
It has been said that there is no need to have it be exact, which is true. I notice a few pip improvement.
My last trade was 1 EURUSD to 1.44 USDCHFIgnored
Disliked\
Thanks for taking the time to respond. So your formula would be as follows:
Ratio = EURUSD / USDCHF
Not knowing your values for EURUSD and USDCHF it is difficult to see exactly how you got to 1.44. When I use this formula I get a ratio of somewhere around 1.30 (EURUSD 1.4386 / USDCHF 1.1024). The numbers I used in my equation are current as of around GMT 14:06 (10:05 AM EST).
I also saw where you said it doesn't really matter as far as exact ratio. However, I've seen people use 1.5, 1.6, 1.7 and 1.4. It makes sense to me that this ratio changes as the currency bid/ask prices change. I also imagine that we could see a big difference between a ratio of 1.4 and one of 1.7. Because of this I would like to calculate the ration each time I make a trade. Anything you can add to clarify the clarification is greatly appreciated. Perhaps you could post the values of all the currencies in your next entry and also post the ratio.
Thanks much.Ignored
DislikedRR,
Your welcome.
What I meant by - the ratios do not matter - is that the method will work no matter at 1.4, 1.5 or 1.7. The results will not be the same for each, but we have been told not a meaningful difference.
When you take the EURUSD and USDCHF at their quoted prices, you do not have the actual value of the currency pair. I should also mention that because my value is static (I plan to in the future make it dynamic) it to is not perfect but I have found that the USD part of my trade have a nill value when checking my position exposure.
(EURUSD X 1.00) / (USDCHF X .907) in the case of trading 100k positions that makes the trade value of EURUSD $100,000 and USDCHF $90,700
Hope that helps.Ignored
DislikedWow, thanks for taking the time to clarify. That is so much clearer.
FWIW, I've been in a trade since yesterday. I took a long and have added positions. I took another position at the -70% mark, which is being measured from yesterday's close when I took the trade. I'm now at -60% on that second position.
I read an earlier post suggesting you can only trade this system with large funds to allow for margin. I interpreted this as somewhere around 100k. I've found that you can trade this using mini lots. Instead of trading 1.0 EURUSD and 1.4 USDCHF I've been trading 0.1 EURUSD and 0.14 USDCHF. I'm planning to adjust my EURUSD position size as my account grows and adjust my USDCHF using the appropriate usage.Ignored
DislikedWow, thanks for taking the time to clarify. That is so much clearer.
FWIW, I've been in a trade since yesterday. I took a long and have added positions. I took another position at the -70% mark, which is being measured from yesterday's close when I took the trade. I'm now at -60% on that second position.
I read an earlier post suggesting you can only trade this system with large funds to allow for margin. I interpreted this as somewhere around 100k. I've found that you can trade this using mini lots. Instead of trading 1.0 EURUSD and 1.4 USDCHF I've been trading 0.1 EURUSD and 0.14 USDCHF. I'm planning to adjust my EURUSD position size as my account grows and adjust my USDCHF using the appropriate usage.Ignored
DislikedI would think you had the opportunity to have closed the longs....no?
What were your entry prices?Ignored
DislikedBR, you are right. When I wrote 1 day back I actually meant 2 days back. I'm getting the hang of how you guys refer to your trade dates. Here are my trades:
- 1st Entry @ -0.25%, 2008.09.17 13:17
eurusd @ 1.4217, USDCHF @ 1.1202. This trade is still on as of 21:12 GMT (5:12 PM EST) and showing a net loss of -24 pips. It is hovering around the -0.30% mark from the close of 2008.09.16.
- 2nd Entry @ -0.50%, 2008.09.17 17:32
eurusd @ 1.4265, USDCHF @ 1.1095. Closed at around the -0.25% mark for an 80pip gain.
- 3rd Entry @ -70%, 2008.09.18 16:52
eurusd @ 1.4439, usdchf @ 1.0930. Currently still in this position around the -0.30% mark from the original entry and so far showing a 23 pip gain.
If I get back down to the -0.25% levels before the close of today's candle I will close out my two positions for a profit and start anew on the new GMT 0:00 candle.
I started trading this system on Tuesday of this week and have booked a little over 2% profit so far. If this trade works out I could be in the 2.5% to 3% range. I'll take that considering I'm learning this system. The system seems to be promising. I'm just concerned about having to be glued to the computer to monitor when the trades hit the target correlation levels. This is especially critical when a trade is working against you and you have to add positions to manage the trade. Missing the target levels when you're asleep doesn't help either.
How is your trade going?Ignored
Dislikedgmt 16:15
long hedge entered at eurchf 1,5835, -0,40%
eurusd 1,4182
usdchf 1,1167
2nd entry around -0,80%, 1,5770 if momentum remains that high
if price slows down then around -0,68%, 1,5790
21:27 gmt
opened 2nd position at eurchf 1,5790
eurusd 1,4338
usdchf 1,1023
3rd position open around -1%, 1,5740
18 sep 7:20 gmt
closed second position at 1,5841
eurusd closed 1,4360 = + 22
usdchf closed 1,1028 = + 5 x 1,5 = + 7,5
= + 29 pips
8:13 gmt
just missed the close around 1,5900 ... hope the price comes back into that area
10:33 gmt
too bad, I've missed my exit
according to the rules I'd have to re-enter the 2nd position on a 0,50% distance form 2nd position close
that would be around 1,5741
RegardsIgnored
DislikedDo you have the prices of EURCHF at the time you did your trades? Just easier to "see" how you understand the price levels.
Based on how I am trading this, it seems to have merit. I have the same concerns and am trying to add tools that will give me freedom.
BRIgnored
DislikedThe concept is ...
That a market will generally not move in only one direction. That even in a strong trend, it will pull back before continuing. It is in these pullbacks that profits are made to offset or makeup for the loss being created for the 1st or 2nd trade. I think for some the problem can be not hitting exactly a given price level and therefore profit opportunities that did exist vanish back into the strong trend.
I would hope Spieler would help clarify or provide refinement information.
I am not suggesting what I am doing would work for anyone else. But I do a couple of things that help deal with these situations that are clearly not part of spieler's method. But I to have asked questions that have gone unanswered and therefore did what I felt I had to, to tweak things a bit to make it work.
First if I add more than one position I increase my trading size. I have tried both the doubling of the position with each additional position and the adding of an additional position every time a new position is taken. Both have worked, however the doubling has more power (to be expected). This means your capital and or trading size has to be adjusted to trade this way
Second, if I feel the market is coming to a pause and I have pips on the table that are meaningful, I close the position ahead of a level and bank the profits. That means that most of the time I do not pull as many points as are available.
I am also considering putting a limit as to the % of my account on any on trade ( a group of positions) or max out the number of positions to X and kill the trade. My thinking being that these events are rare take the hit and move on.
I would much prefer Spieler to help dial this all in, but understandably he is really busy trading.
BRIgnored
DislikedI started a new trade today. Here are the details.
Position 1; 9/19 06:42 GMT, @ 0.27%, eurchf 1.5903, sell 0.1 lots of eurusd at 1.4244, sell 0.14 lots of usdchf at 1.1161.
Position 2; 9/19 10:30 GMT, @60%, eurchf at 1.5953, sell 0.1 lots of eurusd at 1.4203, sell 0.14 lots of usdchf at 1.1227.
Anyone else in any trades? Please post.Ignored
DislikedHi RickyRudy,
I'm short also, details are in my post above. Beginning with the 2nd position you have todays trade.
RegardsIgnored