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AUD/USD

Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I do, but I feel it might be mistake. I always hedge when my trades go wrong. No worries. In D1 TF the price is still under the 200 EMA and it points down. However the price now is just on a psychological level which can serve a a support. The RBA decision will help it to find a direction.

I tightened my stop and got taken out but may look to reenter. the 0.6700 gave way and clear downtrend. now we have failed at the 0.382 from the april high.
Quoting ninner
{quote} Why this is the best time to trade from now to mid janurary!!!!
You can have your opinion, no problem, post those excellent results

I shall be travelling international, way too hot in Australia so I will enjoy the -30* OF Alberta.

Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
Hovering from 0.6711 yesterday, going for up from here.
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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
In the nick of time, see how we go from here.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
#AUDUSD / H4
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Quoting Ayax.TSS
#AUDUSD / H4{image}
Interesting chart, thanks.

A homer first hit at it today, still think that 0.6711 was crucial from yesterday pre/post rates ann't. Patience for now : )

WTI up $1.50 past cpl hours from 73.00, all good, the Precious one still sitting in the dug out, (only Joking), 1770 odd.
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
US30 (futs) looking a bit sus so far, this one doing OK.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
Is the chart bullish?
Someone please tell me what is going on here. America's statistics are good. Why does it go up?
AudUsd

My forecast it will break the resistance
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wise man say, only fools rush in
Quoting eastrader
AudUsd پیش بینی من این است که مقاومت را خواهد شکست {image}
How far does it move?
It’s not the first time a Friday session closes with the AUDUSD exchange rate struggles around the level of 0.6800. This is historically pretty strong psychological level and it offers one of the few times when the fundamentals are stronger than the technicals.
The week closed just a couple of pips below that level which is not a convincing position for neither bullish nor a bearish setup and it makes think that next week AUDUSD will begin in somewhat ranging mode.

The Tuesday’s CPI is a pretty undecided story. The U.S. dollar tends to get stronger in December as the U.S. economy is a consumer driven and the demand for U.S. dollar increases due to all Christmas shopping, Black Fridays, black week etc.
Later in the week we have this rate hike again, but the days after that a disappointing us economy report is expected.

So buckle up for a ranging week between 0.6750 and 0.6850. Breaking away above or below that range will decide the next trend.

Long term: Looking at the D1 chart with a 200 EMA shows the price keeps reversing down every time it touches the EMA. We have a slight bearish RSI divergence and a slightly sloping MACD with the price stagnating just below that 0.6800 level again.

I will be looking at a ranging setup with a slightly bearish bias.

I will be happy if this works out, but make your own research before using my trading idea.

Good luck.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting masoudja
{quote} How far does it move?
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wise man say, only fools rush in
Quoting eastrader
{quote} {image}
I think we have somewhat similar view as I also see a range of about 100 pips (0.6750-0.6850).

I just don’t bet so much on AUD climbing more than 15-20 pips from where we currently are before it makes down-move of at least 60-70 pips. That would also match the 50% retracement of the uptrend started on December 6th (H1 TF).

EDIT: There are some factors making me think the AUD will decline next week.
1. The “creation of jobs” report will be a disappointment.
2. The prospect of RBA hiking much more than already done is too blurry.
3. China is easing on Covid restrictions which is not only a good news. Covid cases will increase rapidly and kill the expectations of a new economic progress.
4. The OIL price cap is not a good measure for a commodity currency like AUD.

My view can be wrong and nothing more than a confirmation bias. So anybody using it should confirm the idea with own research.

Good luck.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I think we have somewhat similar view as I also see a range of about 100 pips (0.6750-0.6850). I just don’t bet so much on AUD climbing more than 15-20 pips from where we currently are before it makes down-move of at least 60-70 pips. That would also match the 50% retracement of the uptrend started on December 6th (H1 TF). EDIT: There are some factors making me think the AUD will decline next week. 1. The “creation of jobs” report will be a disappointment. 2. The prospect of RBA hiking much more than already done is too blurry. 3. China...

Hi NotAtrader,

All we need to know, right now, is on the Chart.....
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Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi NotAtrader, All we need to know, right now, is on the Chart..... {image}
Yes it is. Unfortunately explanations like the one I made are sometimes needed as not everybody is capable of seeing everything from a chart. I am sorry I couldn’t provide a chart, but your chart is pretty good and it supports my view. Thank you.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I think we have somewhat similar view as I also see a range of about 100 pips (0.6750-0.6850). I just don’t bet so much on AUD climbing more than 15-20 pips from where we currently are before it makes down-move of at least 60-70 pips. That would also match the 50% retracement of the uptrend started on December 6th (H1 TF). EDIT: There are some factors making me think the AUD will decline next week. 1. The “creation of jobs” report will be a disappointment. 2. The prospect of RBA hiking much more than already done is too blurry. 3. China...
Just to support my view with a chart. The TF is D1. The chart shows a bearish RSI divergence not yet confirmed though and a sloping MACD.
The circle shows a bearish rising wedge. The white thick moving average is a 200 EMA showing the price struggling to penetrate above it on several occasions.

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Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi NotAtrader, All we need to know, right now, is on the Chart..... {image}

AUD/USD M1 Observations

I only Focus on "Short Term" Price Movements.

I'm only looking at M1 and look at Price Structure and were Price is in relation to the 15 30 60 and 240 EMAs

How Fast/Slow is Price Moving

Look for Price Breaking Structure, a Test of the Break and Price Action to Enter

The only Decision then is whether there is enough room for Price to move for me to make a Profit (Risk:Return 1:2)

(The Chart below is M1)
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interesting support level here on AU

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