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AUD/USD

  • #69,621
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:24am Nov 14, 2013 10:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes so far she is throwing salt on the USD recovery, but nothing to rule out a Dectaper (yet)
There's no December taper.
  • #69,622
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:31am Nov 14, 2013 10:31am
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} There's no December taper.
I think you mean to say that "A December taper is highly unlikely in my opinion". Correct?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,623
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:36am Nov 14, 2013 10:36am
they arent going to taper for quite awhile yet
  • #69,624
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:52am Nov 14, 2013 10:52am
Quoting ninner
they arent going to taper for quite awhile yet
If the market makers were as convinced as you are, then I think the Aussie would be well on its way rallying to parity by now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,625
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:58am Nov 14, 2013 10:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I think you mean to say that "A December taper is highly unlikely in my opinion". Correct?
I'll put money on it.
  • #69,626
  • Nov 14, 2013 10:59am Nov 14, 2013 10:59am
please i need help before i make a colossal mistake. I am currently short on aud/usd but i just took another short position on gbp/aud. Isn't that a contradiction? Could i possibly be selling the aussie and buying the aussie at the same time? If the aussie is losing against the dollar, could it possibly be gaining against the pound? Please help anybody.
  • #69,627
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:14am Nov 14, 2013 11:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If the market makers were as convinced as you are, then I think the Aussie would be well on its way rallying to parity by now.

not necessarily....the auzzie economy is worse than the american ........
  • #69,628
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:17am Nov 14, 2013 11:17am
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} I'll put money on it.
And so you should if you have such a strong opinion on it. After all, the only way to gain from the markets is to put our money where we believe there are the highest probabilities.

That being said, I also believe there is very low probability of a December taper, but I would never absolutely rule it out.

Furthermore, at the end of the day, our opinions mean nothing because we are not the ones who set asset prices or currency exchange rates. That task is left to those who have the deep pockets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,629
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:21am Nov 14, 2013 11:21am
Quoting ninner
{quote} not necessarily....the auzzie economy is worse than the american ........
Very true, but this is not about economic strength, but rather about the potential yields.
As long as the Fed keeps the printing presses at full speed, capital will flow to high risk assets including Australia and other weaker economies. Just look at the Eurozone as an example. Negative GDP, huge debt to GDP ratio, deflation and generally unsustainable sovereign debt and deficit levels in the periphery states... and yet the Euro keeps rising. Surely (as seen in the economic data) Australia's economy is doing much better than the EuroZone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,630
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:26am Nov 14, 2013 11:26am
RE: Taper,

I still don't understand where the hype on taper came from prior to the self-fulfilling fakeout we saw recently. I kept telling people Bernanke set a bar and the bar was set at a point where it was going to be impossible to taper. Since then, we haven't come anywhere close to that bar, and in fact we've gotten further from it.

I believe the powers that be are out of touch with reality, but with the blowback from Obamacare, the retail season upon us, Bernanke leaving the post, and the numbers getting worse, it would be suicide to taper prior to January. Yeah you can't rule it out, but if they were actually stupid enough to taper between now and the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see bankers hanging in the streets Christmas day.

RE: Aussie economy,

I'm not so sure it's in such bad shape. With Abbot in place, I'm expecting better things. I doubt it could get much worse than it has been under Rudd Gillard Rudd. I always thought the Aussies were sadistic when they booted Howard, and I think they've come back to their senses.
  • #69,631
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:32am Nov 14, 2013 11:32am
Quoting TheTopBloke
RE: Taper, I still don't understand where the hype on taper came from prior to the self-fulfilling fakeout we saw recently. I kept telling people Bernanke set a bar and the bar was set at a point where it was going to be impossible to taper. Since then, we haven't come anywhere close to that bar, and in fact we've gotten further from it. I believe the powers that be are out of touch with reality, but with the blowback from Obamacare, the retail season upon us, Bernanke leaving the post, and the numbers getting worse, it would be suicide to taper...
Re: Taper, you are right on all bolded counts, but all I am saying is "Never say never". We got a huge surprise with the last NFP and we might see an even bigger one at the next. Stranger things have happened, like an ECB rate cut which everyone (including the market makers) was convinced we wouldn't see until at least January 2014

Re: Aussie Econ.
All I have to go by is the data, and based on that, the US is better off, but Aussie data is certainly miles ahead of EZ data. I'm not in Australia to see the situation first hand, so I leave that to be determined by those who are on the streets of Australia's cities.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,632
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:36am Nov 14, 2013 11:36am
Morning all. I've just gone long. Looks like a double bottom on 4 hour to me.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #69,633
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:36am Nov 14, 2013 11:36am
Quoting TheTopBloke
RE: it would be suicide to taper prior to January. Yeah you can't rule it out, but if they were actually stupid enough to taper between now and the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see bankers hanging in the streets Christmas day....
So taper or not taper is about whether the bankers hanging in the street or not, it is not about the economy. QE or not QE is about whether the FED has ammunition to rob the national wealth, it is not about the national economy. The FED keeps printing money and buying bonds, the national wealth is diluted, but the FED owns the bonds and their assets keep increasing. The Fed uses the tool of QE to rob the wealth of the nation and the world that keep the dollar as reserve currency.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,634
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:46am Nov 14, 2013 11:46am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} So taper or not taper is about whether the bankers hanging in the street or not,
It might be.. they are all friends you know.

Quoting ffleo
{quote}QE or not QE is about whether the FED has ammunition to rob the national wealth, it is not about the national economy.
This could very well be also. After all, the FOMC members all belong to the top 10%

Regardless of the above, I have to believe that it is about the economy. Believing anything else would force me to pack up my trading charts and throw them in the garbage.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,635
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:49am Nov 14, 2013 11:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It might be.. they are all friends you know. {quote} This could very well be also. After all, the FOMC members all belong to the top 10% Regardless of the above, I have to believe that it is about the economy. Believing anything else would force me to pack up my trading charts and throw them in the garbage.
Yup, no matter what they do, we try to take a share out of it. Now I manage my own retirement accounts, they wont shrink 50% another time when the stock market crashes again. In the 2008/2009 market crash, I lost 50% retirement funds while they were managed by Fidelity.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,636
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:53am Nov 14, 2013 11:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Re: Taper, you are right on all bolded counts, but all I am saying is "Never say never". We got a huge surprise with the last NFP and we might see an even bigger one at the next. Stranger things have happened, like an ECB rate cut which everyone (including the market makers) was convinced we wouldn't see until at least January 2014 Re: Aussie Econ. All I have to go by is the data, and based on that, the US is better off, but Aussie data is certainly miles ahead of EZ data. I'm not in Australia to see the situation first hand, so I leave...

pip, you make good points ...i agree with topbloke when ben set a bar and we are getting further away from it...if you listen to ben at the last press conference...he seemed alot more unsure about the status of tapering ..at least that was my impression and he acknowledge that even though the rate was coming down it wasnt what they wanted ...mostly due to the participation rate decreasing....thats not quality and they know that...and inflation isnt even close...there is no velocity of money......so we will see how it shakes out
  • #69,637
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:57am Nov 14, 2013 11:57am
Quoting ninner
{quote} pip, you make good points ...i agree with topbloke when ben set a bar and we are getting further away from it...if you listen to ben at the last press conference...he seemed alot more unsure about the status of tapering ..at least that was my impression and he acknowledge that even though the rate was coming down it wasnt what they wanted ...mostly due to the participation rate decreasing....thats not quality and they know that...and inflation isnt even close...there is no velocity of money......so we will see how it shakes out
when the banksters are ready to crash the stock market, they will begin tapering. When they all are loaded with shorts, they will taper it. Just wait.

Where has the QE money been flowing into? Into the financial industry or manufacturing? used to create jobs or used to pump up the stock market? Did the Fed pay banks not to lend money?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,638
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:00pm Nov 14, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting ninner
{quote} pip, you make good points ...i agree with topbloke when ben set a bar and we are getting further away from it...if you listen to ben at the last press conference...he seemed alot more unsure about the status of tapering ..at least that was my impression and he acknowledge that even though the rate was coming down it wasnt what they wanted ...mostly due to the participation rate decreasing....thats not quality and they know that...and inflation isnt even close...there is no velocity of money......so we will see how it shakes out
Exactly. We shall see how it shakes out. Don't rule out anything... just go with the highest probability if you have full confidence in it, but protect yourself from all possible surprises. We haven't had a black swan event in a very long time. I think we're overdue for one.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,639
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:06pm Nov 14, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Exactly. We shall see how it shakes out. Don't rule out anything... just go with the highest probability if you have full confidence in it, but protect yourself from all possible surprises. We haven't had a black swan event in a very long time. I think we're overdue for one.

pip, yeah im sure there is a blackswan out there somewhere and will apppear when everyone least suspects it...as per usual!!!
  • #69,640
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:09pm Nov 14, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} .... If the shit hits the fan sometime in 2014, I suspect it might drop to .70 - .75. Anyway, enough rant for one day.
shit will hit the fan. the us stock market bubble will burst. assie will drop big when it happens.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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