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  • #38,001
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:33am Dec 21, 2011 12:33am
what is the story behind ORACLE?

i heard that its big negative .. therefore big negative for SPX and effectively a sell for AUD..

anyone know?
  • #38,002
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:39am Dec 21, 2011 12:39am
Quoting ragnakore
i think we will see a big drop, but that wont happen while santa is smiling upon europe... after all santa is german
True & so it back again over parity , lets see what frankie & lOndon boy's do , ball in their court .eu ok bull but gu not that but both they failed correction so far & usdx may loose /suspecious 79.60 support for a mofu down if . cretical moment just before they open !!
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38,003
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:48am Dec 21, 2011 12:48am
Quoting fontu
... next will watch 1.0169 .
cretical usdx , down with extension to help all other up little more or stop , no breaks bottom yet .
fontu
Please explain your 1.0169 correlation to USDX levels in your graph. I would like to understand this approach.
  • #38,004
  • Dec 21, 2011 1:03am Dec 21, 2011 1:03am
Quoting ragnakore
Something very very positive for Europe is the life saver LTRO Long Term Refinancing Operation.

ECB is offering cheap cheap loans to banks AS MUCH AS YOU WANT AS MUCH AS YOU CAN and as collateral, banks simply need to offer anything of value; BONDS from erring countries will do. Therefore, bond holders can buy Bonds and offer these as collateral to borrow cheap loans from ECB. Banks earn SWAP/Interest difference with minimal risk.

ECB isnt allowed to buy Bonds directly, but this LTRO effectively is doing just that. LTRO isnt the solution for the...
hi ragna. unlikely the banks will be using it to buy sovereign debt. have a read of some articles. regulators do not want them to , as they are already overcomitted with sovereign debt. so the yield falls are temporary due to end of year books closing and will spike up again in 2012, assuming no ECB QE or additional funds from IMF/ESM

so all of this rally is hopium.
  • #38,005
  • Dec 21, 2011 1:33am Dec 21, 2011 1:33am
Quoting Halba
hi ragna. unlikely the banks will be using it to buy sovereign debt. have a read of some articles. regulators do not want them to , as they are already overcomitted with sovereign debt. so the yield falls are temporary due to end of year books closing and will spike up again in 2012, assuming no ECB QE or additional funds from IMF/ESM

so all of this rally is hopium.
If you read it properly, it says that this is not a comprehensive solution as

1) It just recycles the liquidity (instead of getting new liquidity injections from other markets)
2) It is dependent on ECB's financial standing (unless ECB is printing Euro's non-stop, there will be a limit to the amount that can be borrowed i.e. finite amount

This is a short term solution at most. But linking it with end of the year rally, hence HOPIUM is in abundance..
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #38,006
  • Edited 1:46am Dec 21, 2011 1:34am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting ibotman
Please explain your 1.0169 correlation to USDX levels in your graph. I would like to understand this approach.
AU level not any special but one level drawn on the chart , apparent while usdx important as it hold bottom from any breaking down means bounce back to bull enough or even bull continue up & no extension down , will stop any pair against to bull & bear next in the form of more correction or bear continuation .

with Frankie so far not that special happened , promising eu stay stall but gu taking to top & usdx still over the support ., au got life before but readying for the end ,up still with limits bull at top side now . waiting more for London to see effects .
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd4.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd5.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd3.gif Size: 8 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38,007
  • Edited 1:58am Dec 21, 2011 1:45am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting Halba
hi ragna. unlikely the banks will be using it to buy sovereign debt. have a read of some articles. regulators do not want them to , as they are already overcomitted with sovereign debt. so the yield falls are temporary due to end of year books closing and will spike up again in 2012, assuming no ECB QE or additional funds from IMF/ESM

so all of this rally is hopium.

i do agree that its HOPIUM... like i said earlier, this LTRO isnt the solution but a quick fix to give the fat bankers a red coat to hohohoho for.

and once this fizzles, i will be riding the avalance down..

ps.. been trading against hopium for some time and it wasnt as profitable as i wanted ir be..
  • #38,008
  • Dec 21, 2011 1:58am Dec 21, 2011 1:58am
This pair very volatile since yesterday
  • #38,009
  • Dec 21, 2011 2:01am Dec 21, 2011 2:01am
its hopium. also china is definitely starting to go down, and aud/usd above parity doesn't reflect the risks.

gbp/usd and eur/usd which are now low yielding pairs are at significant premiums over the low yielding dollar, 57%, 31% respectively. with the market unable to go down to reflect correct value (too short ahead of XMAS), the only thing happen is a large technical bounce on hopium. also eur/usd and gbp/usd are becoming very correlated with the DOW jones, in fact they are totally different instruments.

with the current eurozone problems, and very poor yield of the alternatives(BOE 0.5%, EUR 1%), i struggle to see them increasing that premium let alone maintaining it over the next 6 months.

a slow deterioration is in sight, EUR to possibly 1.15-1.20, and GBP to 1.35-1.40 but could take year or two, and dependent on their correlation with dow jones. dow unable to decline because us corporates still earn strong.
  • #38,010
  • Dec 21, 2011 2:14am Dec 21, 2011 2:14am
1.020and going...

santa claus is in europe right now
  • #38,011
  • Dec 21, 2011 2:37am Dec 21, 2011 2:37am
Quoting ragnakore
1.020and going...

santa claus is in europe right now
yeah , still there , now watching for any weakness next 1.0185 if can stop or stall .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post5238339
waiting ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38,012
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:01am Dec 21, 2011 3:01am
Quoting ragnakore
i do agree that its HOPIUM... like i said earlier, this LTRO isnt the solution but a quick fix to give the fat bankers a red coat to hohohoho for.

and once this fizzles, i will be riding the avalance down..

ps.. been trading against hopium for some time and it wasnt as profitable as i wanted ir be..
Hey ragnakore,

whats your take on when hopium is going to fizzle. AUD/USD is crazily bullish at the moment. Some banks like Standard Chartered research showed that the AUD/USD should hit 0.91 by the end of the year. With about 10 days left, this doesn't seem likely
  • #38,013
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:05am Dec 21, 2011 3:05am
Quoting pipraiser
Hey ragnakore,

whats your take on when hopium is going to fizzle. AUD/USD is crazily bullish at the moment. Some banks like Standard Chartered research showed that the AUD/USD should hit 0.91 by the end of the year. With about 10 days left, this doesn't seem likely
Going short, selling more....balls of steel guys....that's how you have to do it. What's the reason Aussie is going up eh? Same reason it'll be going down.
  • #38,014
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:06am Dec 21, 2011 3:06am
Quoting Halba
hi ragna. unlikely the banks will be using it to buy sovereign debt. have a read of some articles. regulators do not want them to , as they are already overcomitted with sovereign debt. so the yield falls are temporary due to end of year books closing and will spike up again in 2012, assuming no ECB QE or additional funds from IMF/ESM

so all of this rally is hopium.
Ok, as much i want to say the Euro problem is solved, it's not completely solved yet, but to call falling yields hopium is not entirely correct.

I agree banks will not want to buy sovereign bonds, but most likely it will be the private sectors that will buy the bonds. They can borrow Euro at low interest 2%ish rates and buy the bonds that were yielding 5 %ish. 3 % spread, only risk is SOVEREIGN default. Let's think of it this way, most private institutions don't believe that the govt is going to let the PIS fall. They might let Greece fail, but the others are too big too fail. Remember AIG ?

But then again - a yield spike is possible in 2012 , if and only if Greece defaults on its debt.
  • #38,015
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:25am Dec 21, 2011 3:25am
Quoting pipraiser
Hey ragnakore,

whats your take on when hopium is going to fizzle. AUD/USD is crazily bullish at the moment. Some banks like Standard Chartered research showed that the AUD/USD should hit 0.91 by the end of the year. With about 10 days left, this doesn't seem likely
as market is going like it is now, fizzle not this month.

fizzle to start next year
  • #38,016
  • Edited 3:48am Dec 21, 2011 3:28am | Edited 3:48am
sigh... im out at 185 instesd of 205..

stalling and am no risking the pips.. it had rallied way too high.. need to take out 220 pf retrace back to comfy 100 level to go long


ps.. strong sellers parked aound low 200s
  • #38,017
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:04am Dec 21, 2011 4:04am
market is waiting for LTRO ... thats the major risk event for EUROPE and AUDUSD as well...

watch it.. watch it

if disappoint, SELL
either because its small or no taker
or too strict no one can avail of it
  • #38,018
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:25am Dec 21, 2011 4:25am
Quoting ragnakore
market is waiting for LTRO ... thats the major risk event for EUROPE and AUDUSD as well...

watch it.. watch it

if disappoint, SELL
either because its small or no taker
or too strict no one can avail of it
is it this jump u are talking abt .... ECB 3yr tender results
  • #38,019
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:28am Dec 21, 2011 4:28am
Quoting harora
is it this jump u are talking abt .... ECB 3yr tender results

Yes! THe market loves loands, and so more loans....yay? lol. THe banks decided to borrow double than what they expected.....and really why wouldn't they....If somebody offered me UNLIMITED euro loans at 1%......I'd take them up on their offer too, free money baby...ugh..lol
  • #38,020
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:32am Dec 21, 2011 4:32am
we are going parabolic on the 1 hr charts and we know what happens to price after it does this.

If your long.....dont get too greedy
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