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Attachments: How many TP20, SL20 could you make (in a row)? [Group Challenge]
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How many TP20, SL20 could you make (in a row)? [Group Challenge]

  • EUR/USD - LIVE (burner sample) TP20SL20 | Brokerage Account XXXX46
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  • Post #81
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:12pm Jul 23, 2019 5:06pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting auricforecas
Ok here quick stat: Auric's signals summary: number of signals: 3 wins in a row: 3 (TP20, SL20, 500:1 at 10% margin/stop broker account) loses: 0 loses in a row: 0 INPUT 100 USD OUTPUT 685 USD (585% profit, 0% DD - realised) OUTPUT after next TP10-20SL20, 10-FOLD or nothing
Ok regarding this.. as promissed/hoped... Here it goes... See that is why the last one (4/4) was TP12 (only..) even though it would go to TP20.. but forget it, I do not trade beyond the plan... specially not while I am already in the trade.. specially not in the stall market that it "was"...

Ok, here is the current stat...

Auric's signals summary:

  1. number of signals: 4 (3.6x TP20SL20)
  2. wins in a row: 4; 3x (TP20, SL20, 500:1 at 10% margin/stop broker account) + 1x TP12SL20
  3. loses: 0
  4. loses in a row: 0
  5. INPUT 100 USD
  6. OUTPUT 1057 USD (957% profit, 0% DD - realised) aka 10-FOLD on the deposit, as promised/hoped above...

So this trial burner is considered a succes... 10-fold achieved...
Now I will test future ones by myself.. since not many people post here atm... I will then try to estimate certainity, in retrospect... to establish some picture..
estimate no of reasonable rows to look for (to outweight the loses).. and decide what to post here, what type, kind.... that would be in the next 3w-2months, I think... But please others, do post here, at least surpass this n=4+... by live posting... or publish some TE... Oh yeah, I might post TE in the future...
I must try it myself... stressfull enough without live posting, at least before "picture" is established... tnx
--
other members:
bigiivan has, in this thread... 1/1 win..
There were some others posting in the beginning, didnt check if it did/would win...
we had some trial today... didnt reach tp, but was within sl... wont post this stat atm..

so.. so far we achieved together (GROUP) 4.6 TP20SL20 trades in sequence... 3.6 from me.. and 1 from bigiivan.. this is the current "record" aka "waterlevel"...
see how far we can get (together).... this 4.6 alone would mean x20.. so 1k deposit, 20k OUT... (1.000USD->20.000USD in 4.6 posted signals here...).
But this is just one series atm... and not at "optimal" certainty (like 80%+)...
we need to build it up.. to have some/broader picture.. for example... what can be derived from 10-20 trades... in a row.. or even 100, if more people post.. altough TP20SL20 should be carefully select.... but you could post even lower-prob ones.. we might just compare trades above certain levels... if that is someones preference, to enter just at 80% cert... can compare just sequence of those... and see retrospect... ok you got the picture...

PS this last signal (#4), although optimised to TP12 really exhausted me (also reporting it live).. for I hope you now see, obvious reasons... this stall->crack... although good, was almost discouraging (watching it live - that I try to avoid as much as possible So should anyone have constructive post/question, feel free... otherwise see you after the STAT... And do please POST signals, with level of certainty (you could do it with lower quality ones, just write this in comment, low-probab etc...) so that we will have some picture... soon... Specially the picture after the FED/ECB will be maybe more "trusted"... because the parameters /trend might set-in.. unlike now - stall/indecision etc...

Can you afford to take that chance?
Heh, no questions/comments... OK, see you in 3w-3m... when I will hopefully have some more stat.. and whats more.. that this
FED/ECB will finally confirm/reject what might already be priced-in.. so that we wont fight with this shit among other super-tight conditions within this tp20sl20...
that are hard already... so expect to... For TREND, you have my others posts or thread of mine... for GOLD, you know where to find me...
So that is about it... AWAITING STAT data.. Others please do contribute.. specially the ones that voted 20x+ tp20sl20 per year, can PM me also, tnx..
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Ok regarding this.. as promissed/hoped... Here it goes... See that is why the last one (4/4) was TP12 (only..) even though it would go to TP20.. but forget it, I do not trade beyond the plan... specially not while I am already in the trade.. specially not in the stall market that it "was"... Ok, here is the current stat... Auric's signals summary: number of signals: 4 (3.6x TP20SL20) wins in a row: 4; 3x (TP20, SL20, 500:1 at 10% margin/stop broker account) + 1x TP12SL20 loses: 0 loses in a row: 0 INPUT 100 USD OUTPUT 1057 USD (957% profit,...
Well done bro.
Keep rolling
  • Post #84
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:57pm Jul 26, 2019 3:39pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Well done bro. Keep rolling
tnx bro now the plan is to see how my trend prediction (will) be going.... and if I should adjust the slope etc.. and THAN i will do "normal" trades... and then
track/analyse... see patterns maybe or correlation between trades aka certainty, error, counter (before it goes to TP, level) etc... and Than select some BERRIES...
see the characteristics... group them in some parallel trades... get to at least 3-5... or a series of those.. and then publish TE maybe... and/or posts live as I was now..
something like this this might happen in the next 3w-3m... I really think we can pull n=10 out of this, specially together... If I could push for one more.. so n=5.. we would basically just ONE like this, in a row, to glue together or if we just post 2-4 of our best, most confident.. that dont overlap..

We might get everywhere with the story like this, can you imagine "How few trades got from 100USD to 10mio" in a GROUP TRADE...
After that brokers might change "rules" or whatever But I think it is possible... Well I know for sure n=5 is possible.. have posted (almost) 4 of them already.. in a (first/current) row... and some I didnt... n=5 definitely possible... So that means factor x25... on the deposit.. n=10 is FACTOR 600 n=15... 1mio+ out of 100USD!

And also, some more motivation... FX is build for this.. anyone that think he can LIVE years with some/same strategy.. is dead wrong, if you ask me...
All the traders that I knew.. quit, for some reason or another... There are traders that do not really trade.. they do other things, tech exploit, analyse, liquidy provider, teaching/gurus (lot of those... .. etc... I do not consider them as "real traders".... as are believed to be here.. PREDICTION+GOOD money/risk management+focus/disciplin etc that leads to profitability.. if it doesnt.. also not a "real trader" at the end, at least not a COMPLETE one, but could be a good component to some other trades/rs.

Ok what I am trying to say is that FX should be harvested, in my book at least, CHEETAH style... FAST, QUICK, EFFICIENT and then get the f out (knowing when to rest, not to trade/hunt)... rest, recuperate...
than see what/if to kill next Take the inspiration... Cheetah have the HIGHEST WIN-RATE (in the Savanah Someone that expect to earn consistently.. is in the wrong racket.. if you ask me... We must wait, when opportunity arises... HUNT for THE KILL, FULL-POWER.
Inserted Video

Fuck LIONS btw... I never liked them... Ok here the stats from the clip:
LION: WIN-RATE in 1/6 it hits TP No wonder why they have ego issues
CHEETAH: WIN-RATE 50%... we might just work stat around it... to bet heavier on the profitable trades winrate of 50% would be good to have at tp20sl20...
then we would just have to select the high-prob ones... to bet MORE... if we can establish somewhat connection between prob or certainity... and success..

ok u got the pic, tnx again
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} tnx bro now the plan is to see how my trend prediction (will) be going.... and if I should adjust the slope etc.. and THAN i will do "normal" trades... and then track/analyse... see patterns maybe or correlation between trades aka certainty, error, counter (before it goes to TP, level) etc... and Than select some BERRIES... see the characteristics... group them in some parallel trades... get to at least 3-5... or a series of those.. and then publish TE maybe... and/or posts live as I was now.. something like this this might...
Are you a full time trader or amateur like me?
I work during London and NY morning sessions so my plan is to use a wider SL and place my order when new trading day start as I cannot monitor pc from work.
So 1 entry x day but the trade can takes several days to develop.
I think I need to find a better filter before placing the order.
Will see
Quoting Merka
{quote} Are you a full time trader or amateur like me? I work during London and NY morning sessions so my plan is to use a wider SL and place my order when new trading day start as I cannot monitor pc from work. So 1 entry x day but the trade can takes several days to develop. I think I need to find a better filter before placing the order. Will see
Dont want to give too many details out, could tell you some time later or PM... Maybe you could use mobile app at work, once you have breaks or toilets
It depends how you trade... however... waiting for trade to develop is nice, so that can be done even alongside the dayjob... I am not a fan of watching the trade 24/7 either.. I am not designed for those marathons.. I prefer analysis+set and temp. forget the trades... seting levels or leave open, check later... If I watch them too much or check them before I planned, I might get into too much, checking it every minute etc... its a loop I try to avoid.. Im helping myself with semiatuomated EA that I developed for this.. also with mobile app.... I trade live also.. but is much more stressful.... too much almost.. you could see my live posts when I live traded...
as you can see, it would be better to SET and FORGET.. watch later.. when I watched LIVE, I almost lost hope for some of them ussualy my trades do happen, but with delay... as you can maybe see from my charts... if the conditions are not favourable... stall etc.... But yeah, ideal would be also to find some VERY certain, high-prob ones.. like this Williams situation.... when you could get TP rather linear in rather minutes... but the discipline would be key.. many traders get some golden trades right, like the one mentioned, but than they trade them away, overtrade .... in other trades.. and are NEG at the end... So the idea is to gather the berried out of all traders. becase I believe many traders have like at least 1-3 90-99% certain (their estimation) trades a year The goal would be to catch those in separate burner account If they cant do it themselves... some could...

Ok I hope I was clear...

PS as of monitoring PC from work.. if the mobile app is not so representative to you (as in my case, for overview at least).. you could install remote desktop app in your mobile.. to access home PC... etc... again, depends how you trade but there are many possibilities.. unless you need to watch it tick by tick almost and can not due to work that you do... Btw many dayjobs are perfect for this.. but are usually low-paying ones, but if one would be confident in his trading.. could use those to get by, covering fix costs... and burning on the side At some jobs you just SIT but the ones that have those, usually prefer to read something or watch youtube hehe....
Can you afford to take that chance?
Hi auricforecas,

Like the thread, it makes me think.
To see how far you can get, another idea could be to open up several accounts and trade them through a trade copier.
In each account you take your profit out @ n+1 TP20SL20 trades in sequence.
For example:
In first account take profit and start new round @ 3 x TP20SL20 trades in sequence.
In second account @ 4 x TP20SL20 trades in sequence.
etc..
etc..
As you build your balance you can affort to open more accounts, but... one SL hit means all accounts are done.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
Hidden Treasure
Quoting Chake
Hi auricforecas, Like the thread, it makes me think. To see how far you can get, another idea could be to open up several accounts and trade them through a trade copier. In each account you take your profit out @ n+1 TP20SL20 trades in sequence. For example: In first account take profit and start new round @ 3 x TP20SL20 trades in sequence. In second account @ 4 x TP20SL20 trades in sequence. etc.. etc.. As you build your balance you can affort to open more accounts, but... one SL hit means all accounts are done.
Hi, much tnx! Didn't really understand what would be the benefit of this, but please explain further, I welcome anything that might boost this...
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting victorezeaku
Hidden Treasure
Hi! Finally someone noticed... I will post similar thread in few minutes.. but with one difference..
ONE SHOT, ONE (BIG) KILL.. or... "GRANDSLAM in ONE SINGLE TRADE"
It will be about waiting for "THE ONE" opportunity... and RUN LIKA A CHEETAH... for the EPIC KILL...
One of this kind can FEED you for a YEAR... stay tunned in the next 5min.
Can you afford to take that chance?
EURUSD is one pair that would have suited this but alas Trump is always on his Twitter nowadays. I do this sometimes when I have a perfect trade lined up.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Mitiblotch
EURUSD is one pair that would have suited this but alas Trump is always on his Twitter nowadays. I do this sometimes when I have a perfect trade lined up.
Well yeah, I get you... I do not have any fixation about any pair So if you thing any other PAIR would be suitable for this.. ANY!
Just bring it on... I must say here that I come from much different background... I came to FX... to EURUSD in particular for one particular reason..
It seemed PERFECT (liquid etc...) at the time! Am wondering for some time if it would be time to try my model on another pair...
I have tried it on BTC also.. but it might not be too suitable (for this) because it runs much slower but with JUMPS...
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Hi, much tnx! Didn't really understand what would be the benefit of this, but please explain further, I welcome anything that might boost this...
As i understand it, the problem with this strategy is when to take profit, because every next trade can be a loss.
Nobody will know how long the winning sequence will be before the next loss will occur right?
Well if you have something like 4 accounts traded with a trade copier, you can take profit in the first account after a winning streak of 3 tp trades.
The second account you will tp after a winning streak of 4 tp trades
third account - 5 tp trades in a row
fourth account - 6 tp trades in a row

This way you will allways have at least one account with maximum wins in a row profit...
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
Quoting Chake
{quote} As i understand it, the problem with this strategy is when to take profit, because every next trade can be a loss. Nobody will know how long the winning sequence will be before the next loss will occur right? Well if you have something like 4 accounts traded with a trade copier, you can take profit in the first account after a winning streak of 3 tp trades. The second account you will tp after a winning streak of 4 tp trades third account - 5 tp trades in a row fourth account - 6 tp trades in a row This way you will allways have at least...
Well but we could do the same thing? if we just roll it 3 times, derivation from your example... and then withdraw 1/4 (equivalent of stop trading in 4th account) of it... roll it in one more (4th time), withdraw 1/3 (equivalent of stop trading in 3rd account) etc... So let's asume it does work only 3 times and crashes in 4th.. you would preserve arround 25% (4th account not traded) + 10% (if that is the stop out) of the rest 75% (of initial deposit)... But if you win the 4th time, you will get x6,85 on the deposit for first 3 rounds (about 90% or x1,90 per trade) and "only" x1,45 for 4th round... the same as you would reduce the leverage to half the size.. after 3 rounds... but if it would fail the 4th time.... and you would enter with reduced leverage, 500/2 for example... you would preserve more than half of the account... if stop loss hits SL20...

Example...
100USD deposit..
3x TP20SL20...
685USD out...
check: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E3
the same would happen if you would divide 100USD to 4 different accounts and put
25USD at each and roll it 3xTP20SL20...
check: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=4*(25*1.9%5E3)

and then YOUR method...
for 4th time... you leave one account... hold profits... so 171.25USD is "SECURE"
you put 3 accounts, 171.25USD each...513.75USD total..
if it WINS you get ... 976 USD + (SECURED) 171,25USD.. so you got... 1.147USD...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=513.75*1.9
it is loses... you get 10% (if that is stop-out) of 513.. USD, so 51USD... + SECURED 171 USD.. so 222USD...
*you can do yourself for 5th time...

LOWERING leverage after 3x TP20SL20.. to 250:1... just for example/ilustration...
so for 4th time.. you lower the leverage to 250:1.. which means x1,45 if it wins (45% return)..
so... we have 1,305 USD if it wins and 376USD if it fails...

Something like that, hope the math checks out, I calculated it quickly.. it took too much time already...
hope you get the idea even if the math doesnt hold..
so the conclusion seem to be.. if anything.. we could use the method of lowering the leverage after certain TP wins in a series..
that is why we need as much data as possible, to get some feel what would be the optimal... HARVEST...
Can you afford to take that chance?
signal, 60% certain...

EURUSD. SHORT the cocksucker..
price now 1.1205....
TP20, SL20..
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
signal, 60% certain... EURUSD. SHORT the cocksucker.. price now 1.1205.... TP20, SL20..
closed at small profit, seems to risky at 500:1
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} closed at small profit, seems to risky at 500:1
signal failed, at sl20 at least.... glad I closed it...

so atm 4 wins in sequence and 1 fail.. for me...
or 5 group wins in a row... current record here...

will be back with higher certainty tp20sl20 signals...

Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} signal failed, at sl20 at least.... glad I closed it... so atm 4 wins in sequence and 1 fail.. for me... or 5 group wins in a row... current record here... will be back with higher certainty tp20sl20 signals...
this 5th signal would hit, just now TP20+ ... at SL25... report follows..
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well but we could do the same thing?...
Excellent!
Thanks for taking the time to do the math, it makes perfect sense.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} this 5th signal would hit, just now TP20+ ... at SL25... report follows..
Auric's #5 (TP20SL20 signal) summary and OVERALL SUMMARY (4 wins in a row , 1 loss for auric OR 5 wins in a row, 1 loss for group... at TP20SL20, 500:1, 10% stop) but potentialy... 5/5 wins in a row (for auric) or 6/6 wins in a row (for group) if we adjust the stat (SL) Awaiting what more could be concluded from the stat, so far it seems rather nice... if the next 20-30 trades would be like this... = GOLD

Well now in retrospect it seems like a good signal.... Even more so because many didn't believe we will see the DOWN today... check posts from others, even laughs.. from the time I predicted the signal... So let me be clear... This signal... as TP20SL20... FAILED... That is it, make no mistake....

But, let examine a little further, just for stats purposes... I originally wanted to enter while this previous up-momentum rolls out.... but I wasn't watching all the time, wasn't in front of comp... once I was... have seen that the majority already happened... just before slide... see the previous line... but then my model predicted another... drop.. so figured.. let's chase this and I didn't wait for momentum to build/show... I entered it COLD... not on the slide but just COLD-start... when there was no (temp) direction in play... and people were expecting up.... market was in STALL... overnight basically... in the morning I closed the trade because it seems too risky.. you can see from chart and from my LIVE TE... (parallel/control trading with 50:1)... but to be honest, based on ORIGINAl signal post... I admitted that it failed.. if assumed TP20SL20.. However... I was not in the trade... and also posted before.. that I closed it... But the PRICE that the model predicted was still ringing... so with that In mind.. I basicaly traded all day with that in mind entered/exited at various times but with that TP price from the 5th signal in mind, as a confidence builder... aside of my price prediction model output.... here .

So what can be concluded from this... Yeah some would argue if we would SWITCH the SELL to BUY.. the signal would win (sooner) but I do not necessarily look it that way... the signal would hit TP20... but within SL25... so 400:1 (10% stop) would go through.... But! If I would pick more precise ENTRY point... before posting the 5th signal... it might hit (within) TP20SL20... But lets examine original (5th) signal.. if we would ajust to SL25... it would go through and we would have 5/5 wins from me and 1/1 from bigiivan.. so 6/6 in a row... just not within TP20SL20.. but within TP20SL25 so 400:1 10% stop.... Yeah... not the ORIGINAL idea, but I hope you still see the potential in this... I will keep building the stat, privately.. if there will be no-one else here posting.. .and THAN I will start posting live... with hopefully much better certainty/entry estimations... and also... we might also found out that... it would be "best" to put max 400:1... for 60% certainty trades..
and use 500:1 only for 80% certainty one.. BTW this last, 5th.. was only 60%.. because some vital parameter is not at full capacity... will be next week I believe.. and also because I entered overnight (stall) and COLD START.. didnt wait shit entered the moment I came home basically.. and the model confirmed strong chance of TP... just not so sure within SL20 Ok hope I got something...

P.S. Of course, SL20 is just an option.. you could just use the TP20 ... and use whatever SL you like.. should you had WIDER... all 6/6 trades would go through..
and within SL25 precision... which is awesome to me... If we could reproduce trades like this... even within SL25-30... I would be downpaying new car tomorrow.)
Just need to be a little more sure, hence stat building up... privately... typing here soon I hope...

Planning to open dedicated TP20SL20... once Im done testing, privately.. so we can roll live... how far can we go... and/or what can be harvested from the past/projected stat data... so far looking good...
Can you afford to take that chance?
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