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  • #12,181
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:53am Jun 18, 2009 2:53am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
New stuff from yours truly:

I’m finding that latching onto trends seems to be an issue for many traders, and I have an armful of techniques I use to do so. I’ll keep you posted. -Steve
Looking forward to hearing more techniques. i like the bottom of the bucket, 123 breakout and over and under patterns. Thank you for teaching Steve!
  • #12,182
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:57am Jun 18, 2009 5:57am
Good old London open

often I see on London opens that price moves in one direction for about 30 minutes only to turn around and thrust back in the other direction
Asian desks closing out their positions before handing the book to London?////


Exactly, I love trading London but cannot now. come back only around 7:00 EST when all the action is over and I can only salivate over it.
It is also much easier to trade because all moves are so determinedly one directional unlike New York session.

When I have enough to trade for a living I will trade only London open.
  • #12,183
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:01am Jun 18, 2009 6:01am
By the way, is it only me or others also see that it is easier to find S/R areas using bars and not candles? I noticed also that BRW always uses bars on his charts.
  • #12,184
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:08am Jun 18, 2009 6:08am
Is it just me or is the market a bit erratic today?
  • #12,185
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:24am Jun 18, 2009 6:24am
Quote
New stuff from yours truly:
The S&P 500 has fallen......

BillyRayValentine,
superb analysis Sir Steve!
More! More!... will be waiting for more...
  • #12,186
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:28am Jun 18, 2009 9:28am
Quoting seattlerust
Since the chat, this thread has become very quiet. I does not have its previous vigor. I miss it. For some reason, the chat isn't the same. Maybe it is the lack of visuals? perhaps the machine-gun pace of the commentary? The shoot-from-the-hip perception? I just don't know.

Anyone else have thoughts?

SR
In frustration with the on-going chat discussion regarding 5min descending triangles and trades, that even in my first days of trading would have made NO sense, I'm reposting this (excellent IMO) post.

Shooting from the hip & lack of visuals. Excellent post Seattle. I miss a busier thread and at times, detest the chat.

Who's watching the EUR/USD? 1.405ish range?

Any other big levels that may be in range today/tomorrow?
  • #12,187
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:48am Jun 18, 2009 9:48am
Quoting shiko
By the way, is it only me or others also see that it is easier to find S/R areas using bars and not candles? I noticed also that BRW always uses bars on his charts.

Does it matters if we are using bars rather than candles?
Always hunting for pips, even in the dark
  • #12,188
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:18am Jun 18, 2009 11:18am
Quoting sam0182
In frustration with the on-going chat discussion regarding 5min descending triangles and trades, that even in my first days of trading would have made NO sense, I'm reposting this (excellent IMO) post.

Shooting from the hip & lack of visuals. Excellent post Seattle. I miss a busier thread and at times, detest the chat.

Who's watching the EUR/USD? 1.405ish range?

Any other big levels that may be in range today/tomorrow?
I've got plenty.

I'll post some later Sam I'm a bit busy right now.
  • #12,189
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:48am Jun 18, 2009 11:48am
Is it just me or is the market a bit erratic today?////


I think it is not only you I hate when Geithner speaks.
I actually think that the best time to trade BRW method is when no news and big guys doing their thing and we can follow them
  • #12,190
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:17pm Jun 18, 2009 1:17pm
Trend line discussed earlier today on cable still seems to be valid as it coincides with 16400 and the sentiment change resulting from talking heads.

Generally I don't trust broken TLs for more than one bounce.
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  • #12,191
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:45pm Jun 18, 2009 2:45pm
any suggestions?
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/8...jpyh4mrpip.gif
  • #12,192
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:06pm Jun 18, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting Mr.Pip
any suggestions?
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/8...jpyh4mrpip.gif
That's a 38% Fib level too.
  • #12,193
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:20pm Jun 18, 2009 4:20pm
bottom of the bucket. eur/usd; H1; long @ 1.3875.
Attached Image
  • #12,194
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:49pm Jun 18, 2009 5:49pm
Hello Guy, we all know that BRW method gives us very good edge if we let it work.
Some who read my few previous posts know that my problem is to let profits run. The problem still persists.
So, I decided to start making statistical research as to what would happen if I have stop loss of 40 pips as per BRW and different take profit of different number of pips. I am actually not looking at picking 100-200 pips. I do not like to keep positions opened after London London closes , maximum to New York close.
So, I checked all my trades for a week. I closed all of them too early. Had hit rate of about 95%. But account grow only on 0.6% in 4 days. It is real money, not demo.
o, after the fact I checked what my profit would have been, had I just opened position and let it run into T/P or S/L without setting B/E and without any management. i checked the history.
with 10 pips take profit, I would be just 10 pips up in 4 days or 0.14% up.
Had I had take profit of 15 pips, I would have 110 pips net and account up 1.54%. Leverage used per trade 1.7:1. Always only one position.
Had I had 20 pips take profit it would have been 140 pips net or almost 2% up.
With more pips T/P without management profit falls almost to like trading 10 pips take profit.
So, I have a question to more experienced users of this method.
1. After you opened position, for example position went against you, are you closing it before stop loss is hit or you let it run it's course by itself?

2. If position moved into your favor say 4-5 pips then it starts moving against you, are you closing it right away even at 1-2 pips profit?

3. Do you have minimal profit goal less than which you do not close position at profit or set it on break even?

4. Generally, how do you let those profit run?
I understand you can close half of position when it reaches say 20-40 pips and let the rest run and setting stop loss at B/E, but for me the most interesting part how you manage it before it reached your first goal, are you closing it before it reaches your first profit goal or not?

Thank you in advance!
  • #12,195
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:04pm Jun 18, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting shiko
Hello Guy, we all know that BRW method gives us very good edge if we let it work.
Some who read my few previous posts know that my problem is to let profits run. The problem still persists.
So, I decided to start making statistical research as to what would happen if I have stop loss of 40 pips as per BRW and different take profit of different number of pips. I am actually not looking at picking 100-200 pips. I do not like to keep positions opened after London London closes , maximum to New York close.
So, I checked all my trades for a week. I...
Hello Shiko,
I am no expert at trading by far.But have kept along with this thread and a couple others around FF.I would have to say each trade is completly different.Trades running into immediate S&R will be quick profit taking,others with room to run you can trail behind.I figure from what I have read and experienced threw my trading,you will learn to "feel" the market.Learn how it moves and reacts to these levels.Once you get a feel for it, you have the bull by the horns.If you can control your greed, fear and so on.......
  • #12,196
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:25pm Jun 18, 2009 6:25pm
Hello Shiko,
I am no expert at trading by far.But have kept along with this thread and a couple others around FF.I would have to say each trade is completly different.Trades running into immediate S&R will be quick profit taking,others with room to run you can trail behind.I figure from what I have read and experienced threw my trading,you will learn to "feel" the market.Learn how it moves and reacts to these levels.Once you get a feel for it, you have the bull by the horns.If you can control your greed, fear and so on.......




Thank you for response.
However you did not undersdtand me completely. I have provided statistics and it is statistic from just throwing trades without any trade management , so, I would really like to know do people let position run into 40 pips stop loss without closing it before S/L hit and do they close position before their minimum take profit met, of say 20-40 pips. what they do after first goal is met is clear. close part of position, B/E let the rest run. I am not interested in this for now. i am looking to pick my 15-20 pips per trade. so, no greed here

Guys, any advise???

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif

  • #12,197
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:59pm Jun 18, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting shiko
Hello Shiko,
I am no expert at trading by far.But have kept along with this thread and a couple others around FF.I would have to say each trade is completly different.Trades running into immediate S&R will be quick profit taking,others with room to run you can trail behind.I figure from what I have read and experienced threw my trading,you will learn to "feel" the market.Learn how it moves and reacts to these levels.Once you get a feel for it, you have the bull by the horns.If you can control your greed, fear and so on.......




Thank you for...
Hi,

It seems you really are your worst enemy here.

1.1. After you opened position, for example position went against you, are you closing it before stop loss is hit or you let it run it's course by itself?

Stops are there for reason, set them and walk away.

Example: I played a break out trade on the Eur/usd the other day it gave out around 40 pips and my stop loss was moved to break even when my first profit target was reached it's a free trade regardless.The stop got hit and I took the loss and didn't know about this until the next day, "The more I monitor these trades the more i seem to loose." All stops, orders, limits are set , and the pubs are open
.
2. If position moved into your favor say 4-5 pips then it starts moving against you, are you closing it right away even at 1-2 pips profit?

Man that is just suicide unless your trading something like a tick chart. If you really are concerned about letting your profits run then 4-5 pips isn't much breathing room even if you are only after 25 pips.

3. Do you have minimal profit goal less than which you do not close position at profit or set it on break even?

Not quite sure what that means ??????? But it is still early over here.

4. Generally, how do you let those profit run?
I understand you can close half of position when it reaches say 20-40 pips and let the rest run and setting stop loss at B/E, but for me the most interesting part how you manage it before it reached your first goal, are you closing it before it reaches your first profit goal or not?

It sounds like you answered the question yourself.

Orders are in you walk away and if you are already in the trade for the right reasons then pat yourself on the back and let it manage itself.
  • #12,198
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:28pm Jun 18, 2009 10:28pm
There are a couple areas that interest me on the higher timeframes. The 1.1067-54 area and the 1.1274-49 area. These should offer areas of decent reaction. With the year end valuations on this pair projected much higher these will eventually become good buy areas as well when price pushes above them and falls it is a good idea to expect these areas to hold support. Happy Trading!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #12,199
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:42pm Jun 18, 2009 10:42pm
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Shiko,
I am no expert at trading by far.But have kept along with this thread and a couple others around FF.I would have to say each trade is completly different.Trades running into immediate S&R will be quick profit taking,others with room to run you can trail behind.I figure from what I have read and experienced threw my trading,you will learn to "feel" the market.Learn how it moves and reacts to these levels.Once you get a feel for it, you have the bull by the horns.If you can control your greed, fear and so on.......

Yes Trading at S&R are the best trading strategy.Price at bouncing up and down in the range of 40 to 50 pips for euro.and slow movement for 6-10 hours.That the time you have room to run
  • #12,200
  • Edited 10:57pm Jun 18, 2009 10:45pm | Edited 10:57pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What makes this area so special? Notice how the first time price came into this area from above it bounced and then the first time it hit from below it bounced as well.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
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