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2019

  • #81
  • Feb 27, 2019 8:59am Feb 27, 2019 8:59am
fibbing the eurusd 60 zz down leg for probable retrace..... 240 still up... 1440 still up.... daily 200 down..... daily alma up......h
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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 boxed fib.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 boxed fib.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily fib.png Size: 66 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #82
  • Feb 28, 2019 5:37pm Feb 28, 2019 5:37pm
Quoting hayseed
fibbing the eurusd 60 zz down leg for probable retrace..... 240 still up... 1440 still up.... daily 200 down..... daily alma up.....
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240 zz now down with a count of 2...... that will not stand.....

1440 zz still up.... daily 200 ma still down...... daily alma still up.....

fibbing the 240 down leg with sell limits for probable retrace..... h
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 zz.png Size: 36 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #83
  • Feb 28, 2019 7:20pm Feb 28, 2019 7:20pm
audcad double top..... testing the water first......h
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily double.png Size: 47 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #84
  • Feb 28, 2019 7:31pm Feb 28, 2019 7:31pm
10080 rvi signal buy cross without zigzag...... daily 200 ma up.....h
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYWeekly rvi.png Size: 46 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #85
  • Feb 28, 2019 7:53pm Feb 28, 2019 7:53pm
eurjpy..... only weekly zz down.... all others up.... expecting small daily retrace......h
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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 50 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #86
  • Mar 1, 2019 5:02am Mar 1, 2019 5:02am
Hayseed,

great content brother! I just wanted to ask a question here...

is “2019” one specific system, or just a track of your progress? Your pending orders resemble something like martingale, but some of your images look like regular swing trades. I also so your comment vouching for Chaos/Profitunity.

I just wanted to know your main strategy behind 2019!
  • #87
  • Mar 1, 2019 9:07am Mar 1, 2019 9:07am
euraud 1440 double top with the zigzags of all 9 time frames now up..... testing the water first.....h
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily 1440 double top with 9 zz up.png Size: 47 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #88
  • Mar 1, 2019 10:30am Mar 1, 2019 10:30am
Quoting tradeChaser
Hayseed, great content brother! I just wanted to ask a question here... is “2019” one specific system, or just a track of your progress? Your pending orders resemble something like martingale, but some of your images look like regular swing trades. I also so your comment vouching for Chaos/Profitunity. I just wanted to know your main strategy behind 2019!
//----

hey tc..... it's tracking the progress of a specific system that uses dozens different types of entry's...... none are vague..... all math based without discretion..... such as, a rsi(10) crossing above the 50 line should be verifiable by anyone using oanda's v20 live-2 server....

the pending orders are placed in several manners.... for several reasons.....

in the grid manner, all orders should be same size..... mostly commonly 0.01..... in fibonacci retracement, the orders can be at times martingale from 0.01 thru 0.05..... there is a solid reason for when it is used..... out of 1000 orders, less than 30 total will be this type.....

personally i have nothing against martingale, but my preference is a fixed lot size based on probability factors.....

yes, the trades overall will be similar to swing trading..... that's because the entrys are indicator based..... indicators for the most part swing with the price.....

the basic chaos/profunity system is good trend following system for those that might find it hard to control their enthusiasm.... it's a perfect example of math based with no user discretion..... the rules themselves of the full system can overwhelming.... for that reason i just use the ao, alligator and fractals.....
//----

this account should grow at a steady predictable rate.....with low lot size and no stress....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #89
  • Mar 1, 2019 10:32am Mar 1, 2019 10:32am
good stuff hayseed.
  • #90
  • Mar 1, 2019 11:59am Mar 1, 2019 11:59am
Good stuff indeed. I’m going to make a assumption here, but with the fog based system (martingale style), are you doing that as a way of adding in the trend while averaging down?

tyoucally Marty is used for when the trade goes against you, but this looks like a strategic continuation technique, albeit with more risk the. Simply waiting for more continuation.

Lastly, per the alligator and other Williams tools. Are these strategies still being used by you? They don’t seem to appear on this thread anywhere!
  • #91
  • Mar 2, 2019 5:32am Mar 2, 2019 5:32am
Quoting tradeChaser
Good stuff indeed. I’m going to make a assumption here, but with the fog based system (martingale style), are you doing that as a way of adding in the trend while averaging down? tyoucally Marty is used for when the trade goes against you, but this looks like a strategic continuation technique, albeit with more risk the. Simply waiting for more continuation. Lastly, per the alligator and other Williams tools. Are these strategies still being used by you? They don’t seem to appear on this thread anywhere!
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hey tc..... lastly firstly..... the reason you dont see the chaos/profunity items here is because i have not had time to post them and many more..... i will....

firstly lastly...... martingale style..... my take on martingale is neutral.....

everyone knows iATR(Symbol(),1440,10,1)..... how many know iATR(Symbol(),1440,"alma",0,1)....... or iATR(Symbol(),1440,"tsr",89,2,1).......

imagine you knew the average minimum and maximum price excursion of every signal on every pair on every time frame..... let's assume that from the opening price of an alma sell signal, on average the price could move against you 50 pips before moving for you 50 pips..... by staggering your entys you will increase the odds of success of that signal....

sitting at a computer watching the price move up and down does not appeal to me..... it's an ineffective use of my time..... so i guess we can say, my extremely rare use of martingale is because of more productive ventures or perhaps out of 'strategic' calculated atr laziness.....

odds are it's the lastly...... lol...h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #92
  • Mar 2, 2019 6:47am Mar 2, 2019 6:47am
Quoting tradeChaser
tyoucally Marty is used for when the trade goes against you, but this looks like a strategic continuation technique, albeit with more risk the. Simply waiting for more continuation.
//-----

hey tc...... you are dead on here......

i'm trying to find something written long ago for peyton that would better explain things..... until then, the indicator below might help...... also written for peyton......

what your are seeing is the major pairs with a particular signal broken down into 15 dots by timeframes....

look at the eurcad 60 row..... 15 dots being the last 15 bars on the 60 chart beginning with bar 0 on the left..... lime for buy ..... red for sell..... gray for not sure..... so you can see that 9 bars ago on the eurcad 60, this signal went straight from a sell to a buy.....

now look at the audnzd 30...... currently a buy..... now we could take that buy...... or noticing the 10080, 1440, 240 and 60 are almost solid red, perhaps a better trade would be to fade it..... which is just a fancy way of saying averaging in...... knowing our atr for this signal, we could do that effectively......

by rearranging things and using just a single pair, you could have every signal displayed on the single chart in such a manner so as to see how the signals related to each other.....

sometimes the best sell is nothing more than a buy on a lower time frame.....

speakin of time, trapped 15 hogs last night..... time to git to cleanin.......h
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily bagvino.png Size: 37 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #93
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:45pm Mar 3, 2019 4:45pm
Thanks for the reply! I love the thought process, and you definitely have to be confident to go Marty like that.

That said, wouldn’t it make sense for the continuation trades to be heavier in volume?

for example, your grid based positions seem to hold the same lot size, and then your fib based Marty increases...

considering that marty’s retrace “could” be your sign of reversal, wouldn’t you want that holding your smaller lot sizes and the continuation (fractal buy’s) be larger lot sizes?

Just curious!
  • #94
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:56pm Mar 3, 2019 6:56pm
Quoting tradeChaser
That said, wouldn’t it make sense for the continuation trades to be heavier in volume? for example, your grid based positions seem to hold the same lot size, and then your fib based Marty increases... considering that marty’s retrace “could” be your sign of reversal, wouldn’t you want that holding your smaller lot sizes and the continuation (fractal buy’s) be larger lot sizes? Just curious!
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hey tc...... the continuation trades need to be lighter, not heavier..... so as the price moves in your favor the lot size needs to decrease..... this keeps your trades from being top heavy..... a pyramid gets it's strength by being built with decreasing volume as the height increases.....

as an extreme example, suppose you bought 0.01 lot and then the price move 200 pips in your favor..... if you then increased your lot size buying 1 standard lot, any small retrace would be unbearable..... your trades are top heavy.....

now suppose you bought 1 standard lot and had the price move 200 pips..... then decreased your lot size buying 0.01 lot..... your so far to the positive, those small retraces would hardly be noticed..... this gives you holding power....

loosing 1 dollar is far worse than missing out on making 1 dollar..... at least for me.....

your correct, we never know what the market might do.... the retrace could indeed be a reversal..... in times of lower probability the trades are usually very small, 0.01.... in times of higher probability the trades will larger.....

but even still my average lot size is laughably small by common standards.....

the eurusd last zigzag 1440 leg was up, as are the last 30 and 60..... only the 240 is down...... it would be perfect if the 240 were up..... there are a few other factors but the bottom line is , i feel comfortable shorting the gap up, with increasing sell limit lot size fading the last 240 leg.....

both type limit orders need increasing lot sizes, while both type of stop orders need decreasing lot sizes..... this improves the overall position and keeps the orders from being top heavy...... but as mentioned before, rarely is this something i employ......h
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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 60 gap.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 1440 gap.png Size: 60 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #95
  • Mar 4, 2019 1:15am Mar 4, 2019 1:15am
You speak often of probability...

I understand that you have gathered much data. I have to imagine from what I have seen that the amount you Average in and fade would have to depend if you think the 240 leg of the ZZ is in its hot streak or over extended. All that being true, even the statistics gathered per leg length and elevation are lagging indicators. I know you are aware of this, but I am curious how far back you go when you take averages of Daily/H4/H1 legs of ZZ. The extreme case would be, of course, that natural changes in E/U (for example purposes) may be naturally increasing bar length of its ZZ legs.

That aside, as ZZ is fractal in nature, how far down do you go before you just see noise? For example.. In a bearish pair on the Weekly and Daily (per 200 MA and all else concerned), a 240 retrace to me is significant, as there are only 4 periods there represented in any D1 Candle. Furthermore, the M30 zigzag is likely to change multiple times in an H4/D1. So I suppose to consolidate my inquiry here, do you concern yourself with the sub H1 timeframes, or are you more concerned about bar count in a given leg? If it is the latter, which legs are worth tracking average bar count/pip difference, and which legs (timeframes) are just minutia?

LASTLY (for this post I promises ha!), I have seen a couple of renko charts... Do you utilize this, or do you prescribe to the candlestick in your most effective strategies you have uncovered thus far?

As always, thanks again for the wealth of knowledge you are sharing! Your take on the market fascinates me and I can't help but ask what's on my mind!
  • #96
  • Mar 4, 2019 8:38am Mar 4, 2019 8:38am
Quoting tradeChaser
You speak often of probability...
//----

hey tc..... good questions..... i calculate averages using all bars on each pair and timeframe.... once considered throwing out all anomalys but have decided against it.... in the past in rare cases only the last dozen or so legs were used..... can't say for sure if anything still does...... i code so much it's hard to remember specifics on everything......

it's true sometimes a particular time frame will run many multiples of it's average..... most often it's often the 5 and 15 minute...... that really does not effect the over all averages much.....

as far as noise, usually once the 240 has printed a leg in my favor, i prefer to stand aside..... a 240 retrace can hurt just as you mentioned...... even riding out a 60 retrace can set you back needlessly..... odds are the leg will extend some but my preference is to gladly let someone else have that.....

as far as which timeframes are worth tracking, that would depend...... if your trading just one pair, eurusd for instance, you can afford to throw everything at it..... so in the case of selling, every 30 minute up leg could be sold..... as long as the 240 and 1440 last legs are up...... rather than deal with the 15, i just send the grid orders which are close enough..... small lots.....

people trade tick and minute charts all the time with no apparent regard for spread..... spread is something that i consider..... in the case of the gbpnzd, only 240 and daily charts are used due to the spread.....

renko charts seem to be my favorite...... maybe that's just due to the simplicity..... i really don't look at charts as much as it might appear...... lookin at a chart in any form opens the door to discretionary and subjective trades....

i just need something to say, '240 alma color change without 1440 zigzag'.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #97
  • Mar 4, 2019 9:02am Mar 4, 2019 9:02am
Thanks for the follow up! I think I can extrapolate a bit on the renko.

Does utilizing renko bars modify your indicators at all? Because so much has to do with periods, I’ve noticed a lot of indicators become skewed once rangebars/renko gets involved.
  • #98
  • Mar 4, 2019 9:55pm Mar 4, 2019 9:55pm
Quoting tradeChaser
Thanks for the follow up! I think I can extrapolate a bit on the renko. Does utilizing renko bars modify your indicators at all? Because so much has to do with periods, I’ve noticed a lot of indicators become skewed once rangebars/renko gets involved.
//-----

hey tc..... haven't invested a lot of time lookin into it but i believe they would almost have to.....

it's a data set without time, so that in itself would seem to have an impact..... and then there's the unknown effect of such a large number of bars having the open and close matching the high or low, depending on direction......

renko bars always remind me of grid trading......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #99
  • Mar 5, 2019 11:55am Mar 5, 2019 11:55am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- ..... renko bars always remind me of grid trading......h
That is exactly what they are, grid charts with context
  • #100
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:07pm Mar 6, 2019 10:07pm
Hayseed,

I am looking at your pending orders, and I see your greatest Marty pending for AUDCAD at .9537.

Looking at how the ZZs are shaping up, do you still feel bearish on this pair to average up that way? Weekly looking bullish above ATR, and structure along the ZZ bullish as well.

I am just curious what about your rules is keeping you bearish here. No criticisms, just wanting to know the justification to enter those pending Sell Limit orders!
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