Trend sustainability should be considered in all trades. How long will the trend last and under what conditions will it last? Speculation before an event happens such as a press release is a good example. Gold fell from 95X to 864.1 on speculation that the FED was going to stop cutting rates. Although it did not already happen, the event was already priced into gold. So this begs the question, does it really matter whether or not the scheduled event takes place? Gold has already been priced in for a 25 BP cut. Whether or not the FED does or doesn't shouldn't be a reason to fret. With this in mind, does one choose to wait till the day of the press release to close out all positions or till the press release is released before making a decision? I would choose the first. Why? I waited too long today and lost money when I was up in the positive. I lost everything I earned, and half of what I should have earned. With this in mind, remind me never to trade news ever again. It isn't worth it. The day of the press is the day the trend ends. Simple as that.
shorted 1xYGM8 at 867.50. Had put a sell stop gtc @868. Oh well. Prices had crossed short term support at 875 (trendline). However, 20 SMA support lay at 872. As bias were support at 870, why place bets on an expection everyone recognizes versus a point of no return. Dollar is posed for an uptrend. My reasoning? Bullish CPI. Crude? prices have been capped and are losing momentum @126. Tomorrow's inventory reports shouldn't help either, assuming that stocks increase. Gold should continue falling into its falling wedge. Am not expecting to add more. No idea how far prices will fall.
