Backtesting vs forwardtesting + broker vs broker

Please I don't need your advice.
I'm not a dreamer and I don't plan to sell anything.

This thread is dedicated to the very very very few like minded people who are interested in statistics applied to trading stocks, commodities, forex etc. etc.

https://www.fxblue.com/users/broker1
https://www.fxblue.com/users/broker2


I use a single and fully automated system.


Later I'll post backtests using a spread that is 2 times wider than normal so that we can compare them with real market conditions.

amazing ! broker 1 decided to ignore my order.

I had a pending order that didn't get executed... WHAT THE ???

gonna change asap

BLAH! how can you "trade well" if they don't let you trade

gonna close the journal since nobody is interested. I understand that.. too boring.

Is there a good broker at all for small investors ? ($500-5000)

in 8 years of testing and research I found one decent broker and the other is half decent.

at least they both process withdrawals very quickly.

It's frustrating and kinda discouraging that even the act of opening an account (without depoisiting anything) is a pain in the a**, because you expect 2 phone calls.

I would say 99.9% of them just want everyone to lose quickly. that's why they encourage scalping, hedging same pair and cr*p like that. OH OH OH "we also offer 100 leverage" lol


c'mon... let's face the problem, otherwise we are going nowhere.

I encourage you to ask many questions to your broker, just to bring more competitiveness to the industry, which is kind like a joke right now.

hey guys lol
hows your journey going ?
when I'm high on beer I can't refrain from posting lol, afterall you're all like drinking buddies. I just feel in the right place when I'm high.

but let's get back on topic

so, I'm dealing with losing streaks easily now.. WTF ? no problems with losses whatsoever!!

no sl is definitely better if you want to make money fast because of the high winrate but you'd need an excellent deposit/withdrawal plan. no way that's too complicated for me

so yeah I prefer to take the damn loss and not worrying about blowing the account overnight, even if it's 10 dollars, I've just decided to give up gambling

next time I get drunk I'll post my stats because no stats = bla bla bla right ?

there's a bit of nonsense here and there in my posts, sorry about that!

here's the updated link : https://www.fxblue.com/users/broker1

I'm still choosing the second broker. it will be a NDD and not the usual MM that targets dreamers. this one I'm using is pretty good actually.

so far so good I'm very happy because I proved myself that I can stick to a plan.

Oh I'm using a combination of systems.

In regards to post 2: it wasn't the broker's fault

LOL @ how fast we tend to blame instead of using simple logic.... that was a large MM (one of the largest actually)... what makes me think they care about my $400-$5k account ?

they don't!


if something weird happens it was my fault or it was an accident.


Anyways I wanted to try VIBHS, which is the prime broker of "Varianse" but it seems they seek for large volume cause they are NDD.

I think "broker1" operates a hybrid model or it might even be 100% mm, I DON'T CARE.

I tested them very hard and so far so good with them.

Gonna increase my balance to $5k in a couple months, first I want to be sure that everything works as expected!

so I'm back with my old broker which was GOOD, and I'm going to test another broker...... hence I'll be using 3 brokers in total!

but I want to see if I'm profitable after 100 trades before making a "decent" deposit.

I can already observe how the very same EA produces different results.

yesterday it opened 2 (losing) positions with broker1.
with broker2.... no position was opened.

Hope somebody is interested in realistic returns, so I'll keep posting

WOW I got one like.... guess who lol

Alright... the average spread on Gold with this broker is 0.16 pips including commissions. never higher than 0.2 during normal market hours. the second broker is slightly more expensive.

Only about 2 years ago I discovered gold and I'm getting slipped like crazy. we should consider that.

we all love numbers so here's the past performance of these systems combined using 0.3 pips of spread.

I don't pretend that you believe it, if you have paranoia just gtfu.


the risk per trade is still high and I'll definitely lower it as the balance increases.

2007
Profit: 125%
DD: 30%

2008
Profit: 1736%
DD: 26%

2009
Profit: 310%
DD: 29%

2010
Profit: 826%
DD: 27%

2011
Profit: 310%
DD: 44%

2012
Profit: 227%
DD: 28%

2013
Profit: 788%
DD: 31%

2014
Profit: 178%
DD: 34%

2015
Profit: 96%
DD: 27%

2016
Profit: 693%
DD: 24%

2017
Profit: 216%
DD: 28%

the worst year...
2018
Profit: 38%
DD: 26%


Just wanted to add more info, now I'll leave the forum until I'm ready to...... deposit.

MOney talks right ?

Some more info before I give up posting.

these systems work (historically) because they are very popular among big funds, that's easy to guess because of the "wild slippage" I get.

these systems work only if the market moves "VERTICALLY".

so yeah what if they stop working ?

I can make a bigger deposit, risk much less and if the DD reaches 20%.. goodbye.

I can try to skyrocket the account to around $5k and THEN switch to conservative mode.

I can trade high risk all the way and set a realistic goal without looking at the DD.

to be honest, I have plenty of money and I don't even know how to spend them. so the point is not being consistent for me... it is "having fun planning".


Cheers.

Oh my look at Gold.... it moves like a {;#@$)!

past friday I was up 150 pips, then back to 0
yesterday I was up 100 pips.. back to 0.

hopefully I will recover the DD soon in 1 or 2 trades

I feel like I'm starting trading now, all these years passed reading other people's advices, dramas, dreams..

practically wasted!

Only this journal... real thoughts and experience.

we are here to make mistakes, no exception. so yeah I have no idea what to do lol isn't it clear.

the moment I know what to do I'll disappear from here, that's for sure!

Due to this s***y market, I had the crazy idea of going back to stocks, (I used to trade stocks for fun when I was 17 lol)

Let's consider the actual minimum required to trade stocks: IMO $10k and the average return of the stock market.

Even with this low volatitliy it still more convenient to trade CFDs (I would be up around 20% this year).


Let's just go back to RISK PER TRADE.

Risking too much is close to gambling, because the dd becomes irrelevant, in other words if the systems stop working I'd lose all the money in the account.
however the starting capital is $1000.

if I risk 0.5%/trade on a $5k account, I would still risk $1000 (20% of my capital).. but my money is in the broker's bank account.... close to gambling AGAIN, LOL.

No, seriusly, I trust my beloved brokers and the FCA....a little bit, just a little bit.

I need time... I need to gain more confidence in my systems.... in backtesting there's no slippage and slippage is evil.


As for now, it seems they perfom better live.

REsults from august 1st:

ft


bt


yeah I know, 25 trades just aren't enough.....

Where is the trend ?

the only trend I see is in my balance curve, precisely a downtrend.



Problem is with longer term swing trading.

one of my systems tries to catch BIG market moves, and it's the one responsible for the drawdown.

I have seen similar situations in the past, being in loss for a whole year is NORMAL.
but being in loss for a year and half means the system simply crashed to me, I might discard it soon.

Ok I wrote the last post out of frustration ... 10-12 consecutive losses pissed me off... I must admit.

Back to reality, there's nothing to worry about: it's actually normal to be in dd for over a year with this kind of strategy, and the dd begun around novemver 2017.

In any case I'm looking for shorter term alternatives, lately I started trading manually on demo, surprisingly I'm right 90% of the time with a rr of 1:1. Simply look for a pullback on a relatively low tf if the volume of ticks is high.

But trading manually is too time consuming for me.

LAST UPDATE:

I experienced some serious technical issues with this broker in the last couple weeks and I'm forced to withdraw funds.

I don't want to name the broker as I don't like to ruin people's reputation. I don't think they are scammers (I actually saw a $2 position turning into $7k);they're just inexperienced I guess.

Two weeks ago I got disconnected for hours, but I got refunded so I decided to "close an eye".


Last friday... THE MIRACLE


Look at this:






Oh well... destiny wants me to make money silently

nobody was interested in this anyway...

the lonely life of a trader sigh sigh