Trading Equity Millipede Concept by Concept

On the Joe trades, if I only have one pair with an FB, I will take it regardless of trend. If there are multiples I will pick what I think is the most probable.

Will look at trend, stop loss placement, size of range if they are ranging, nice looking rejection bar etc.

I will choose the "best" based on what I see.
if they all look about the same, may just pick pair with lowest spread.

Resrvations I have with Joe's method.

The FB, I see little reason why I should enter on that bar. Sure, it is sometimes an inside bar, which can be a low risk entry. It is also sometimes a pin bar. It can often be the last bar of a pennant before it breaks out. My question is, would it be better to just trade the IB, or pennant, or pin bar?

The EMA's.

I have never really seen any benefit to using an EMA, or any ma for that matter. All it is doing is telling you what price just did.

I can tell that, in more detail, from just looking at a chart.

Entering stacks at the 50 fib.

I understand why he does it, stop is much lower because you are only risking half of a bar.
Problem is, I have always seen price retracing to the 50 fib as a warning sign that the trend was weakening. Would not typically be a place I would want to add at.

After pausing for most of the week, EurJpy has started moving a little again.

Both positions still in

Position 1 +163 stop is at BE
Position 2 +40 stop still at -70

No trades will be taken until next week, plan will be to continue adding into EurJpy as long as we have positions open. If the positions are taken out, either, keep trying on EurJpy or move to a different pair that is trending.

Will look at monthly charts this weekend, before next week starts will have a couple of other pairs picked in case EurJpy does not work out.

Always good to have a plan, and a couple of backup plans to keep from making hasty decisions while trading.

How quickly the tides can turn.

Position 1 still in, barely, +8 pips.
Position 2 hit stop loss this morning.

4 trades
1 BE
2 loss -100 pips
1 open +8

Atm, still planning on adding to EurJpy next week. Monthly uptrend still looks good. If retrace continues, will add when it appears to be turning back towards the monthly uptrend. Will also be looking for potential Joe trades next week.

Looks like we have our first signal for Joe's method. There were actually buddhas on multiple pairs. UsdCad looks the best to me, so that is the one we will attempt. It is an SB so we will be placing a buy order. That will be the only trade entry on Sunday, will be waiting on entering EurJpy, want to see some indication that it is finished retracing first. There are other pairs that are trending, will be looking at them a bit more this weekend to develop my alternate plans for the week, in case EurJpy gets taken out completely.

So plan as of right now for market open, place order above high of SB, wait on entering EurJpy until we see what next bar does.

A little over a week in and very little results thus far. I do have one position open currently. If we have another decent gap down, like we did last weekend, it will be gone at open. This is a very long term trading method, not expecting overnight success. Will likely take at minimum, one to two months to build a decent position. Of course, taking one trade a day maximum, it could definitely take much longer than that. In the past when trying similar methods, I would have many false starts, stack one, two or three positions. All taken out at BE, start over.

I would say a likely timeframe for getting the first position of 5-6 trades will be 2-6 months. Pipeasy suggested leaving those open for 6 months, I will likely not be blindly doing that. As a matter of fact, I may be taking profit much sooner than that. The reason for this will be, if I have that many positions open, a good percentage of my balance will be tied up in margin. So, if I am going to continue to trade, I will have to free up margin. More likely than not, assuming I am able to stack 5 or 6 positions before my drawdown becomes too large, I will take profit on a position to free up margin to start my second group.

Profit taking will likely be fairly often at first because of this. As time goes on, and as I take profit on more positions, the positions will naturally stay in for longer amounts of time. But, first things first, have to get the first group built. After, that point, I should theoretically, always have positions in the market, in profit.

Likely ways this could fail.

I may never get a large group in, before my draw down gets to a point that I cannot trade.
I could get positions in, need margin, take profit to free up margin, and have a slow bleed of balance.
Huge unforeseen movement could gap my stops, that could be really bad, especially at first.
Gap down on weekend could take stops out, way away from where my stop loss was set.

I am sure there are hundreds of other ways as well.

Right now, it feels like the dice game that was described by pipeasy. Looks to have a positive expectancy, but, will my capital hold out for as many rounds as I need.

Of course, if it does not, that could be easily fixed by just lowering lot size. Any way, another week soon to start, looking forward to seeing where this goes.

Pipeasy said, keep participating in direction of the trend and a millipede will emerge. So that is all I will do. These entries would likely be considered by Pipeasy as "sloppy entries". He also said they are forgivable, but, you need to practice until you improve on entries. I already know of several ways to improve the entry. Just sticking with his recommendation for now, would like to be able to definitively say the method will, or will not work as written.

Market is open, EurJpy survived the weekend, barely. Is at +11 currently.

Joe entry order was put in on UsdCad. Has not triggered yet, is a few pips above Friday's high.

Trade explorer removed, was not working.

It will not work with Oanda, unless I use standard, mini, or micro lots. Cannot really do that easily with my lot size. Even if I were trading a larger account, it still would be dificult with this method.

Each stacked trade has to be a different lot size, or FIFO rules will screw things up. First trade in would have to be first to close. So, stop loss getting hit would close out my first position. It only affects trades on same pair, with same lot size. At least that is how Oanda handles it.

EurJpy was taken out at BE, kind of expected it would be. Waiting for some indication that pullback is over before attempting again.

Joe trade cancelled, price broke the low of my entry bar. Trade never triggered, will be looking to buy EurJpy again unless price goes down drastically before the bar closes.

Back in EurJpy
5 trades total
2 BE
2 Loss -100
1 open position -15 currently stop loss -70

Nothing to do right now, but wait.

Price has not moved much, keeps going from slightly positive to -20 pips. If I get stopped out of current position, I will consider that a failure to make a higher high. At that point, I will move on to another pair, until EurJpy starts showing signs that the daily is once again in line with long term uptrend. Those signs will be, failure to make a lower low, or a new higher swing high.

Stopped out of previous trade.

5 trades
2 BE
3 loss 170

So far, not really seeing anything I want to trade.

Several pairs are in a monthly trend, but, are ranging or going the opposite way on the daily.

Most are right below a resistance level that they have been at for a week or more. Unless something breaks out before close today, I will not be taking a trade.

Its basically a waiting game at the moment.

Bought AudJpy near open of the week. Is currently up 45 pips, if price goes up a bit more before close, will move to BE and buy a second. If it does not, will just hold what I have and check back tomorrow.

6 trades
1 open +45
2 BE
3 loss -170 pips.

Debated about whether to open another, went ahead and bought again. Stop loss on first is at BE, not happy about how close the stop is, would have preferred at least another 15 to 20 pips. Main reason I went ahead and bought is, the trade looks good on Monthly, Weekly, and daily. Broke last Month and last Weeks high. And broke through resistance on daily. Could not ask for more than that.

Anyway,
7 trades
2 open
Trade 6 +45
Trade 7 -2
2 BE
3 loss -170 pips.

Trade 6 ended at BE. Trade 7 still in at -27 currently. Likely will not be taking another trade today, unless price moves a lot before close.

7 trades
3 BE
3 Loss -170
1 Open -27

Last trade was exited at a loss -70. Staying away from yen pairs at the moment. Japan intervened and hinted at the possibility of intervening more.

Nothing looks wonderful at the moment. I did take a long on AudNzd today. Currently -8, 30 pip stoploss. It is in a decent uptrend on Monthly, daily has been bumping resistance though, so not an ideal trade.
8 trades
1 open -8
3 BE
4 Losses -240

Not much out there, week has been mostly range.

Took a long on AudUsd, it closed slightly higher than resistance, also have higher swing low, bar did have some rejection higher up. I took a shot at it anyway. Currently -4. Have a 40 pip stop loss on it.

9 trades
1 open -4
3 BE
5 Losses -270

Last trade out at -40.

Not seeing much this week either. Took a long on AudNzd, maybe after another candle or two things will look better.

10 trades
1 open -5
3 BE
6 losses -310