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Success with Martingale & Hedge - Possible?

  • #441
  • Apr 27, 2019 6:21am Apr 27, 2019 6:21am
[quote = KashifNawaz; 12234750] Eşsiz bir martingale fikrinden bahsedelim (Hangi Might zaten tartışılmış ve test edicide denenmiş, kim bilir.) Martingale Izgaralarının ana problemi Retracement / Correction. Hepimiz Martingale'nin geri çekilmeye güvendiğini ve fiyatımız% 30-40 geri çekilmeden tek bir yönde gidince hesabımızın tehlikeli bölgeye girdiğini biliyoruz. Dolayısıyla, fikir geri çekilmeye olan bağımlılığı azaltmak ve onu başka bir şeyle değiştirmek. Diyelim ki, 12+ esneme martingale döngümüzü 4-5 ızgara seviyesi düzeltmesi (2% 30-40) yerine 2 ızgara seviyesinin düzeltilmesi (% 10-20) geri dönüşüyle nasıl kapatabiliriz. Bunu yapabilirsek, martingale'nin hayatta kalma şansı artar. Ama soru şu, bu başka bir şey nedir? Bir sonraki yazımda anlatmaya çalışacağım. [/ Quote]


hi all
my english is very very bad...sorry
i just wanted to give a idea.i m sure some people will find a good trade plan for this idea.i m still searching
my idea is.
it must be 2 ea working in same pair
the important point is diffrent entry in my opinion..
1 ea is going wrong way other is must be right way.
if 1 ea is (-), other is must be (+) same time....but how...??
i hope understand me and we can find a good way for this
  • #442
  • Apr 27, 2019 7:55pm Apr 27, 2019 7:55pm
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} would you please further elaborate? 1st engine is already grid martingale. So how 2nd engine with same recipe can be beneficial?
As you have mentioned earlier...."We all know that Martingale rely on retracement and our account enters in danger zone once price takes one direction without a 30-40% retracement."

Let's say we are now facing the situation without a meaningful retracement; instead of rely solely on Engine 1 to increase our exposure/lot size, why don't we just set a limit of Engine 1's the grid level AND initiate a NEW cycle to "fight" this situation.

While waiting for the 1st cycle to complete, the 2nd cycle should be able to generate some profits to buffer our floating loss.

In theory we should have a better chance to survive with this idea.

Note: 10-L grid is able to withstand much longer/deeper one direction movement.
  • #443
  • Apr 28, 2019 2:09am Apr 28, 2019 2:09am
Quoting mercilez
{quote} interesting, this makes sense too. can i ask are those the MA crossover fast or slow like 10 20 or 20 50 type?
I use 200,50 cross to be certain that the trend is right and I use weekly and monthly pivots as well for confirmation.the entry should be absolutely correct,same as we do due diligence in manual trading.

Quoting c0ldsun
{quote} Hi, EA traded only EURGBP with OOB settings. So at the beginning the EA could also handle larger moves, but at some point in time lot size accumulated and in combination with longer up trend of GBP it has blown the demo account. Overall i really liked the EA, because it has really good results. Probbably i will reopen demo account for testing another pair. If you have suggestion, please let me know. Regards, c0ldsun
don't use 8 major currencies,as it is manipulated by banks and MM,use crosses.

Quoting fx4money
{quote} my entry is based on daily chart and previous day close or today open. if price is bellow today open: 1. open sell if no sell exists with lot same size as last/largest available buy 2. or open sell if price is above 25pip last sell position. tp is 100pip {image}
are you sure you just check the Daily open,hiLo? becaue your entries are on DTF and this trail may go for few days,would it not be short sighted to check data of only 1-2 day,do u not want to check the overall trend?

Quoting Macau
{quote} As you have mentioned earlier...."We all know that Martingale rely on retracement and our account enters in danger zone once price takes one direction without a 30-40% retracement." Let's say we are now facing the situation without a meaningful retracement; instead of rely solely on Engine 1 to increase our exposure/lot size, why don't we just set a limit of Engine 1's the grid level AND initiate a NEW cycle to "fight" this situation. While waiting for the 1st cycle to complete, the 2nd cycle should be able to generate some profits to buffer...
do you mean the second cycle as an hedge or second cycle of bias of original floating?

Quoting barduck
[quote = KashifNawaz; 12234750] Eşsiz bir martingale fikrinden bahsedelim (Hangi Might zaten tartışılmış ve test edicide denenmiş, kim bilir.) Martingale Izgaralarının ana problemi Retracement / Correction. Hepimiz Martingale'nin geri çekilmeye güvendiğini ve fiyatımız% 30-40 geri çekilmeden tek bir yönde gidince hesabımızın tehlikeli bölgeye girdiğini biliyoruz. Dolayısıyla, fikir geri çekilmeye olan bağımlılığı azaltmak ve onu...
right now im doing this manually,if my floating reaches 50% of margin,i attach martinagale EA with opposite bias(hedge).I wish someone can code the EA with all the functions in it.but as I said,if our entry is correct,there is slim chances of huge drawdown to the point of no return or rescue.
  • #444
  • Apr 28, 2019 2:54am Apr 28, 2019 2:54am
Quoting barduck
it must be 2 ea working in same pair the important point is diffrent entry in my opinion.. 1 ea is going wrong way other is must be right way. if 1 ea is (-), other is must be (+) same time....but how...?? i hope understand me and we can find a good way for this
Thanks Barduck for your post and idea. Every trader who played martingale has tried this idea of hedging as well. But unfortunately this only works in paper work, not in real market. :-) However we can utilize the positive trades to buffer the losses from martingale but don't know how.

Quoting Macau
{quote} instead of rely solely on Engine 1 to increase our exposure/lot size, why don't we just set a limit of Engine 1's the grid level AND initiate a NEW cycle to "fight" this situation. While waiting for the 1st cycle to complete,
If we set a limit of martingale trades (lets say 10) and then stop adding more trades, what if price didn't return to these open trades? DD will still keep increasing with rapid speed. So we cannot set limit engine 1, on other side, if engine 2 keep adding positive trades, the higher lot will make bis losses at retracement.

Quoting Macau
{quote} the 2nd cycle should be able to generate some profits to buffer our floating loss. In theory we should have a better chance to survive with this idea.
Yes, in theory, this helps but unfortunately not enough to avoid margin call. Will share details soon.

Quoting Macau
{quote}Note: 10-L grid is able to withstand much longer/deeper one direction movement.
Problem starts, when we have 10+ levels. And in real testing, it goes 20+ levels using 20-30 pips grid
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  • #445
  • Apr 28, 2019 3:30am Apr 28, 2019 3:30am
Quoting T4Trade
{quote} I use 200,50 cross to be certain that the trend is right and I use weekly and monthly pivots as well for confirmation.the entry should be absolutely correct,same as we do due diligence in manual trading. {quote} don't use 8 major currencies,as it is manipulated by banks and MM,use crosses. {quote} are you sure you just check the Daily open,hiLo? becaue your entries are on DTF and this trail may go for few days,would it not be short sighted to check data of only 1-2 day,do u not want to check the overall trend? {quote} do you mean the second...
Your meaning of 8 major cross is which ? Eurusd ,GU ,Uchf, Audusd, Ujpy and ?
Which crosses is suitable to run mart in your opinion ?
  • #446
  • Apr 28, 2019 4:34am Apr 28, 2019 4:34am
Quoting KashifNawaz
Lets talk about a unique idea of martingale (Which Might already been discussed and tried in tester, who knows.) Major problem of Martingale Grids is Retracement / Correction. We all know that Martingale rely on retracement and our account enters in danger zone once price takes one direction without a 30-40% retracement. So, the idea is to reduce the dependency on retracement and replace it with something else. Lets say, how can we close our martingale cycle of 12+ trades with correction of 2 grid levels (10-20%) retracement instead of 4-5 grid...
Martingale Discussion to be continued...................

So, the question was, how to REDUCE Dependability on Retracement to give more life and chances to Martingale.

Obvious things are following; (we all know this).
1- Lowest initial lot (0.01 with minimum 5000$ deposit)
2- High Leverage (minimum 1:500)
3- Low TP Target (5-7 pips or 10-20$)
4- Hedge Trades (Anti-Martingale / Reverse-Martingale / Pyramiding) Many names of same thing.

First 3 are general points. So here we will go deep inside in point 4 ONLY..... how to do this practically....
When we stuck in one way price move / spike / volatility, then we have only 1 friend, which is Trend.

Tried and tested many many ideas how to utilize current trend in favor of martingale. I am really really thankful and grateful to my friend Emonts Huub who really helped me a lot since last 1 year to convert my excel ideas into EA's and to test those with hundreds of modifications. I don't have words to say thanks.

So out of many many idea, hereby want to discuss 2; (These must have been discussed many times in other threads)

Lets say, we will use following setting;
Initial lot size = 0.01
Fixed Grid = 20 Pips
TP Target is 20$ or 5 Pips from each cycle. (in this example, we will talk only $ amounts for easy understanding)
We don't use multiplier, rather use manual fixed lots at every level.
Lots of Martingale will be larger than Anti-Martingale (Hedge)

1- Profit from Anti-Martingale - Losses from Martingale = Net TP
In this method, martingale and anti-martingale (hedge) trades will open at every level. Martingale lots will be greater than hedge lots. At retracement of 1 grid, we will close highest lot martingale trade and all anti-martingale trades.

For Example, price went 200 pips up so 10 levels of trades opened.
Martingale Trades (Sell): 0.01 / 0.02 / 0.03 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.11 / 0.17 / 0.25 / 0.37 / 0.45
Anti-Martingale Trades (Buy): 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.02 / 0.03 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.12 / 0.20 / 0.32 / 0.40

Now, lets say price retraced from level 10 to level 9. So all highlighted in brown will be closed and only green left.
Martingale Trades (Sell): 0.01 / 0.02 / 0.03 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.11 / 0.17 / 0.25 / 0.37 / 0.45
Anti-Martingale Trades (Buy): 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.02 / 0.03 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.12 / 0.20 / 0.32 / 0.40

Now, just lets say, we made 50$ from all these trades (loss from highest hedge trade is covered by highest martingale trade, 2nd highest hedge trade closed at Break Even and rest hedge trades closed in profit) and Floating loss of Martingale Trades is -70$. Now if price retrace 1 or 1.5 grids more, as soon floating loss will be -30$, we will close all trades because we already got our net 20$ (covering spread, commission). Martingale cycle will be closed with little retracement as shown in below picture 1.

This is ideal for trend and ranging but worst for stair case ranging in which price travels in stair way (3 grids up, 1 grid down). But still much better from Naked Martingale. We will keep adding profit which will be used to close martingale cycle later.

2- Martingale / Anti-Martingale go side by side
This is same method as above, the only difference is, in this method, we don't close profit trades at 1 level retracement. Rather we wait for enough retracement for our TP, once hit, All Buy/Sell trades close together as shown in picture 2. Much safer way but low profits.

99.9% modeling quality test results of EU from May-2015 till May 2018 attached below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Results.jpg Size: 106 KB
Attached Images
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  • #447
  • Apr 28, 2019 6:44am Apr 28, 2019 6:44am
Quoting mercilez
{quote} Your meaning of 8 major cross is which ? Eurusd ,GU ,Uchf, Audusd, Ujpy and ? Which crosses is suitable to run mart in your opinion ?
these are major currency pairs @ EU,GU,AU,NU,UC,Uchf,UJ
crosses are like EJ,GJ,CADJPY,NZDJPY,EURGBP,EURCHF,GBPCHF ETC

I LIKE THE MOST VOLATILE AND WITH HIGH ADR.
  • #448
  • Edited 10:08pm Apr 28, 2019 9:33pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} Martingale Discussion to be continued................... So, the question was, how to REDUCE Dependability on Retracement to give more life and chances to Martingale. Obvious things are following; (we all know this). 1- Lowest initial lot (0.01 with minimum 5000$ deposit) 2- High Leverage (minimum 1:500) 3- Low TP Target (5-7 pips or 10-20$) 4- Hedge Trades (Anti-Martingale / Reverse-Martingale / Pyramiding) Many names of same thing. First 3 are general points. So here we will go deep inside in point 4 ONLY..... how to do this practically.......
thank you KashifNawaz for sharing this. did you perform a backtest same period with the 1 grid retracement hedge closing method ? can you share it please? i do not know if you intend to release the EA or not but this first method is very interesting ! i wanna see if the backtest can prove it works over long period time.
long live marting's !
  • #449
  • Apr 30, 2019 6:49am Apr 30, 2019 6:49am
Quoting mercilez
{quote} thank you KashifNawaz for sharing this. did you perform a backtest same period with the 1 grid retracement hedge closing method ? can you share it please? i do not know if you intend to release the EA or not but this first method is very interesting ! i wanna see if the backtest can prove it works over long period time. long live marting's !
Grid 1 seems very interesting on papers but in testing, it failed miserably because all your positive trades closed at 1 level retracement and when price continue its original direction then DD is very high. So you have to risk 5000$ to get TP of 20$ .

Grid 2 offers much better results compare to Grid 1 discussed in above post. Will share results soon.
.................
  • #450
  • Apr 30, 2019 7:27am Apr 30, 2019 7:27am
Here is the Test_version of Grid Idea 1 (Profit from Anti-Martingale - Losses from Martingale = Net TP) coded by Emonts.
You may try various settings to get better results. Testing speed will be slow because EA always keep counting profit from closed trades.

If anyone wants to share his ideas to make it safer then most welcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EU_M_AM_RM_V26.01_Test.ex4   118 KB | 739 downloads
File Type: txt 26.01_Set.txt   4 KB | 635 downloads
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  • #451
  • May 2, 2019 6:53am May 2, 2019 6:53am
Test Version of (Martingale / Anti-Martingale go side by side) Coded by Emonts.

Test Results on EURUSD from 01-02-2015 till 31-05-2018 which includes following spikes

19-04-2018 / 30-05-2018 / 902 Pips
11-01-2018 / 29-01-2018 / 623 Pips
08-11-2016 / 10-12-2016 / 780 Pips
01-02-2016 / 15-03-2016 / 555 Pips
15-10-2015 / 10-11-2015 / 830 Pips
19-08-2015 / 05-09-2015 / 700 Pips
06-04-2015 / 01-05-2015 / 880 Pips
25-02-2015 / 20-03-2015 / 900 Pips

DD is as high as 5000$. Play with your own risk setting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 55 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EU_M_AM_RM_V22.06h_Test.ex4   128 KB | 811 downloads
File Type: txt 22.06h_Set.txt   5 KB | 755 downloads
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  • #452
  • May 2, 2019 6:56am May 2, 2019 6:56am
Many Grid Projects under process; if you want to get the final product then must contribute your ideas here.

Most of the members just keep an eye on others but never share their own thoughts or ideas; conservative minds cannot absorb success alone.
.................
  • #453
  • May 2, 2019 7:22am May 2, 2019 7:22am
I looked into 2 grid retracement before taking profit from orders in line with trend.
Yes you could reduce total DD in some cases but you will close also later requiring more grid retracement to close the cycle.
  • #454
  • May 2, 2019 8:16am May 2, 2019 8:16am
i,,,
im starting study about martingale and hedge.
its look interesting for me.
  • #455
  • May 2, 2019 8:17am May 2, 2019 8:17am
Quoting KashifNawaz
Many Grid Projects under process; if you want to get the final product then must contribute your ideas here. Most of the members just keep an eye on others but never share their own thoughts or ideas; conservative minds cannot absorb success alone.
I have an old Grid EA (before build 600) but should still work, I will try and find it and post it here (I think it may have more parameters than the one you have).

Grid EA's work well in ranging markets, so you can Buy/Sell a grid and profit if they don't go too deep (deep meaning the number of grid trades opened)

So what you need is to workout the range for the period you want to trade, once PA reaches the middle of your defined range load the EA.

Set the distances between trades based on your range say a max of 10 trades deep (in each direction) with lots sizes to suit say 30% of your account, then in either direction the EA will make profit while ever the range does not get broken, if you are lucky you will double your account and takeout your original anti.

If you want the EA to trade once it passes 10 trades deep (assuming you don't set a MSL to close all trades and take the loss), you will need to open a hedge trade equal to the value of the 10 trades deep lot sizes that you have going against your original positions which are now in DD.

This is because the defined range has now been broken and you may have a new trend to deal with, this means you may have to carry your account fully hedged until the next range is established.

And while this is happening you can try and do one or both of the following while your account if fully hedged (this would need coding into the EA).

1) Open a trade(s) in the direction of the new trend with SL's and TP's (this way the account may still bring in new equity while you are fully hedged)
2) Once the trend is over which will be confirmed by a new range (need indicators looking back at High's and Low's to confirm new range and trend is over) then start grid strategy again with distances between trades to suit the new grid and range width.

When the new range brings in enough green pips to offset the original grid which is still fully hedged close it out. The EA keeps repeating this process and never stops trading.

I hope this gives you some ideas

Best Regards

RT
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #456
  • May 2, 2019 8:18am May 2, 2019 8:18am
Quoting KashifNawaz
Here is the Test_version of Grid Idea 1 (Profit from Anti-Martingale - Losses from Martingale = Net TP) coded by Emonts. You may try various settings to get better results. Testing speed will be slow because EA always keep counting profit from closed trades. If anyone wants to share his ideas to make it safer then most welcome. {file} {file}
how about EA in first page ?
that not working well ?
i must contribute in testing the first page EA, or this brand new EA ?
  • #457
  • May 2, 2019 9:01am May 2, 2019 9:01am
Promising EA, is there an up to date MyFxBook link? The one on the first page is not working
  • #458
  • May 2, 2019 10:04pm May 2, 2019 10:04pm
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} Grid 1 seems very interesting on papers but in testing, it failed miserably because all your positive trades closed at 1 level retracement and when price continue its original direction then DD is very high. So you have to risk 5000$ to get TP of 20$ . Grid 2 offers much better results compare to Grid 1 discussed in above post. Will share results soon.
thank you for answering
  • #459
  • May 3, 2019 7:25am May 3, 2019 7:25am
Quoting KashifNawaz
Here is the Test_version of Grid Idea 1 (Profit from Anti-Martingale - Losses from Martingale = Net TP) coded by Emonts. You may try various settings to get better results. Testing speed will be slow because EA always keep counting profit from closed trades. If anyone wants to share his ideas to make it safer then most welcome. {file} {file}
What if instead of opening trades in both directions you open orders only according to the market direction? You send a buy order if the market goes up 1 level and send a sell order when the market goes down 1 level (keeping the same sizes as in your example). So for example you open a buy position but the market goes against you for 3 levels (3x10 pips if you set the grid spacing at 10 pips) so you'll have one buy and 3 sells, by now you should be in profit and close all trades. The more complex moves would be down 2 levels, up 1 level etc., this will cause opening more orders in both directions but only then you will have the same amount of open orders like in this EA which opens orders in both directions with no filter.
Another filtering idea which I personally believe is very good is the one mentioned by rugmo here
  • #460
  • May 4, 2019 11:38am May 4, 2019 11:38am
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} I will try and find it and post it here (I think it may have more parameters than the one you have)
Yes please, most welcome to share grid based EA which showed results in past. Additional parameters give more control; the shared in post 451 has many considerable parameters.

Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} once PA reaches the middle of your defined range load the EA.
Means we should wait for the right time and then enable the EA? In this way, we will get our defined range once in a week maybe (considering 30 pips grid)


Quoting Robot Trader
{quote}if you are lucky you will double your account and takeout your original anti. If you want the EA to trade once it passes 10 trades deep (assuming you don't set a MSL to close all trades and take the loss), you will need to open a hedge trade equal to the value of the 10 trades deep lot sizes that you have going against your original positions which are now in DD.
Luck is most important ingredient in every martingale EA; we are trying to remove this. After 10-12 levels, I did fully hedge manually many times but ultimately lost lot due to intervention of human feelings and greediness.

Quoting Robot Trader
{quote}. 1) Open a trade(s) in the direction of the new trend with SL's and TP's (this way the account may still bring in new equity while you are fully hedged) 2) Once the trend is over which will be confirmed by a new range (need indicators looking back at High's and Low's to confirm new range and trend is over) then start grid strategy again with distances between trades to suit the new grid and range width. When the new range brings in enough green pips to offset the original grid which is still fully hedged close it out. The EA keeps repeating...
Yes, this thing may help to avoid margin call but can take weeks, if not months, to reach BE level
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} once PA reaches the middle of your defined range load the EA. Set the distances between trades based on your range say a max of 10 trades deep (in each direction) with lots sizes to suit say 30% of your account, then in either direction the EA will make profit while ever the range does not get broken, if you are lucky you will double your account and takeout your original anti. If you want the EA to trade once it passes 10 trades deep (assuming you don't set a MSL to close all trades and take the loss), you will need to open a hedge trade...
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