Systematic Trend Trading

Trade 40 Stopped

Trade 41 EJ short

Trade 41 stopped

Trade 42 EJ long

Trade 42 stopped

Trade 43 EJ long

Trade 43 stopped

Trade 44 EJ short

Trade 44 is a bad trade... Doesn't follow the rules. That's my first execution mistake on 40 trades, tired and distracted.

i kind of understand the rationale behind this trading technique, multiple small losses wiped out by a big win, so in the end, we all come out ahead.

BUT how would we know one particular pair would have a multi-R move? also, what's the time horizon? probably we should target monthly profit?

Yes exactly that. We will never know for sure what pair will show sustained momentum or trends but we can look at data to find the pairs that show that tendency more often than other pairs, Yen is a consistent performer. Dunn capital have traded a similar approach for 40+ years and they approach the problem by spreading the account over a wide variety of products, so any trends that do occur will be captured. What interested me was that a trend trader with such amazing results and time in the game did not go down the route of trying to predict trends through any sort of complex analysis - which backs up my belief that nearly all forecasting techniques in trading are pretty much useless.

When you say time horizon do you mean how many trade should we consider a significant sample? if so there is a good rule of thumb... large sample sizes give more robust expectations but if there is a strong edge then it is likely to show in a much smaller sample also. These trades I am taking on m15 I would expect losing months but two on the trot would raise an eyebrow. I would be surprised to find any strategy with over 3:1RR that didnt produce losing months though - I wouldn't be surprised to find a high percentage of traders quitting a strategy with a losing month, if they lasted that long.

https://www.fs.blog/2018/05/pygmalion-effect/

The Pygmalion Effect: Proving Them Right

The Pygmalion Effect is a powerful secret weapon. Without even realizing it, we can nudge others towards success. In this article, discover how expectations can influence performance for better or worse.

'Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance. '

Trade 44 Stopped

Trade 45 EJ long

Trade 45 stopped

Trade 46 EJ long

Trade 46 - straight to TP +5R

Trade 47 EJ long

Trade 47 Stopped

Trade 48 EJ long

Trade 48 stopped

Trade 49 stopped

Retweeted Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt):
I flatly reject the idea that the more a chart is studied the more every jig and jag can be labeled. The majority of markets defy understand by TA the majority of time.

Trade 50 TP +5R

Trade 51 EJ short

Trade 51 trailed stops

Trade 50 break even

Trade 51 EJ short