Systematic Trend Trading

Trade 25 stopped

Trade 26 UJ short

I posted 3 of my favourite entry patterns earlier in the thread. But this is more about high risk reward ratios and a live example of the sort of process you need to go through.

'I wish it were not so, but living through losing trades is part of the process of finding the really good trades. Welcome to trading.' Peter Brandt

I have one more question when do you move to break even? Is it when it reaches 1 Reward or 2 reward or is it something else?

Hi Chekz, the data on trailing stops (which moving to b.e is) is pretty clear, trailing stops nearly always increases profitability but the effect is nullified by moving stops too quickly or too tightly. With a 10R target I like a move to b.e at 5R.

Last question,What made you choose Usd/Jpy and why the 15 minute timeframe?

Trade 26 stopped

Trade 27 EJ long

Purely on data Checkz, UJ and EJ test the best. I appreciate that everything that outperforms a base rate will suffer from mean reversion so you have to keep data going forward too. I tested everything for 10 years. 15 minute timeframe because I have the time available and it gives me high trade frequency so I can just trade a single instrument. But the principles of trend and high RR are true for all timeframes.

Feel free to ask questions Checkz

Trade 27 stopped

Trade 28 EJ long

"Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones." --Bertrand Russell

Trade 28 stopped

Trade 29 EJ long

Trade 29 stopped

Trade 30 EJ long

Hi 60,nice thread Subscribed already

I guess 60% of traders would have walked away last week and by now 90%+ would ditch a strategy like this. You have to have a sound understand of probabilities to trade for high returns and high RR. You're just going to be mostly losing, not sometimes, all the time.

Thanks for interesting thread. Please, post again

Trade 30 and trade 31 stopped

18 consecutive losers would kill off nearly all small traders (I don't like the term retail) - but it is well within the systems expected performance. So you have to ask yourself if you believe your data (information) or your biasses.

Hi,

Please see my thread here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=753414


Backtesting cannot be used to trade, at all.

For example, 2R in your table has mas losing streaks of 19, but that doesn't mean when you trade it you will have 19 max, in other words what would you do if you trade 19 trades and the 20th trade was loss?

Another concept is gain % (or equity curve), which is highly connected to number of trades and the period: If you try to change the start and end date to be bigger or smaller than the period you tested, you will definitely have different graph.

The only was that backtest maybe used to trade is when you have at least 100 runs where start and end date are random and gain % is + in all runs.

Trade 32 move to B.E