EURUSD only

Now moving stops to break even.

Still relevant
Let see if daily can close above 1.239

why the spike up after news? sorry if that's a stupid question wasn't it + usd

Ata, I don't wish to be impolite and I am sure, neither do you. I did not lecture you, I simply stated the facts in as few words as possible. I did read your post carefully. For an inverted cup and handle the price needs to be coming down to it.

I simply would not want rookie traders to learn the wrong thing and I am sure you would agree with this?

Quick Weekly Outlook

1. Chart talks very simple: Bulls are targeting 1.2436 area..
2. But first they have to defeat last week's high: 1.2396 (give it or take 10 pips): roughly 1.2396-1.2406 area!

Stay Green

Might be the Empire State index?

okay i thought that was lower impact though..

I get your point where you focus on "continuation" too much.. it doesn't have to.. It would be a perfect one yes but there are million examples on internet where a cup and handle (or inverted) formation still can work as a reversal.. go check out please and if you still insist to be strict to the book then let's simply agree to disagree.. not a big deal.. and special thanks for your kind response Smikester.. sometimes I can get the impression that my charts get punished for no reason.. If I sounded brass then I sincerely would emphasize my apologies..

Stay Green

Chill guys, get some popcorn and watch this go to 1.2360 next

this is just a temporary phase , h4 still has 50 pips to go

opened short @ 2382, close half and move sl to be @ 2365. counting on a small pullback here

I am with you.. Just shorted 1.2381..
SL: 15 pips
TP: 1.2360 at least..

Stay Green

i think she will fall down

I stopped looking at H 4 CHART only H1,m15 and m 5 . I dont have deep pocket to trade high time frame.

Looks like the popular short term trade. I have one down to the 1.2362 level as well. Below that we look to be moving back towards the "dotted line".
Dollar has been on sale early, US treasury yields are up making the euro an attractive alternative. I suspect some large orders for eur vs. usd vs yen will be
occurring during earnings season this and next week, sector rotation and all. I just try to follow along. Random news could spike it above 1.24
good luck,
regards,
goma

done and made profit

Im out. will keep an eye on 2370 for a long scenario again.

Her face just hit the pile of horse shit on the road.. let's see if the horses behind her will trample on her

Stay Green

US President Trump today implicitly put the Fed under pressure to keep interest rates low. This has put the dollar under considerable pressure on the FX market. The Fed’s policy in the next couple of month will be decisive for the future course of the US currency’s exchange rates.

We should get used to volatile presidential tweets. But today’s one brings a new quality into his tweet storms - at least from the FX market’s perspective. The content of his tweet obviously is complete nonsense.

1. Versus the US dollar, the Chinese renminbi gained significantly over the course of the last quarters (nearly 9% year on year). There is no Chinese “devaluation game” visible. Sure, the renminbi exchange rates are still not completely market driven. But the PBoC’s reserves (which have remained more or less constant for a while, after they had fallen until end-2016) at least indicate that there is little market pressure to the one or other side. One may argue that China’s capital account policy is hindering usual free market forces. But that’s certainly not a situation anybody would earnestly describe as a “devaluation game”.

2. True, the Russian ruble recently very significantly devaluated. But that’s entirely a rational market reaction on the new very strong sanctions against Russian companies. The very man who ordered these sanctions can hardly blame Russia for these logical and foreseeable consequences the FX market drew from the US political measures.

But that’s not the point. The point which makes this tweet a burden for the US currency is the fact that Trump connected his pointless allegations with the Fed’s monetary policy. His tweet implies that stopping the Fed’s hiking cycle would be a sensible reaction to the (real) RUB weakness and to the (imagined) CNY weakness. On this issue the sum of all fears of USD bulls condensates. Much of recent US policy action has the potential to increase US inflation pressure: the tax reform (which increases consumption demand and investment demand), the threat of protectionist tariffs (which make imported goods and domestic tradable goods more expensive): they all have different real economic consequences, but share the fact that they have the potential to increase inflation pressures.

The USD exchange rate reaction on all those measures has been ambivalent. Why? Be-cause markets obviously are unsure. Will the new Fed (under Chair Jay Powell, picked by Trump for this job) forcefully fight excessive inflation pressure? So far we argued that the Fed will stick to its inflation objective. In fact, our economists believe that inflation will not overshoot, but that the Fed will raise interest rates more often than currently expected in order to contain inflation. We could have easily envisaged a situation in which Trump creates pressure, demanding a less restrictive monetary policy. In fact, this kind of reaction is normal for a politician. He wants to harvest the real economic consequences of his fiscal policy and trade policy. A restrictive Fed would have the potential to ruin those effects – at least partly.

Abnormal, however, would be a Fed which would give way on this kind of political pressure. That’s the biggest insight of research about long periods of monetary policy: only a central bank that resists such pressure can control inflation. The consequence would be a stronger dollar. A Fed that gives way, however, would create significant dollar weakness. In this sense, it is D-day in the US. Watch out for any Fed communication which directly or indirectly addresses Trump’s claim. As long as the Fed resists – as monetary theory would suggest – the future for the Greenback is bright and clear.