Inserted Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for June 5, 2017. I hope you had a great weekend and are ready to get started trading this week. In today’s video, I’m going to do a general overview of each of the US currency pairs in anticipation of this week’s trading and I’m going to highlight some of the key levels that we will be looking for entry and exit opportunities. And as always, be sure to use appropriate risk management strategies as you go through all trade setups throughout your week.
Getting started here on the USDCHF. We could see that this currency pair has been in a downtrend for several weeks now, falling from all the way up here into the 1.0100-level. Now challenging down into the mid to low-0.9600s. But we’ve made a little bit of a stall, a little bit of a pause down here. Even after Friday’s selloff that we see pressuring underneath the 0.9650-level, the new week opens a little bit higher here for the USDCHF.
Potential slowdown. Potential reversal as we see the open a little bit higher than Friday’s close. Could be something to watch for earlier on this week, especially knowing today we have a bank holiday for the CHF, so we could be seeing some little bit of a retracement or pullback. We’ll have to watch as we go throughout our day. 0.9660 is the top of the little blue-shaded area down here at the very bottom. So, what I’ll be watching for today and maybe even into tomorrow is a real good, solid push back above this 0.9660-level, the blue-shaded area.
If it can hold above there, then maybe we’re looking for that rally, that reversal or a retracement back towards the yellow-shaded area at least as our next resistance target. And that may become a little bit of a short-term opportunity as we look for that retracement back to the yellow zone, similar to the yellow zone and green zone, where we saw a couple of times where it challenged back to the green zone using the yellow-shaded area as support.
So, we’ll watch this blue zone to be our support. Potential rallies to the yellow-shaded area. And then all of that will change obviously if by the end of day today or tomorrow we get underneath this low at 0.9640, 0.9630. Let’s see. The close of this candle was 0.9623. So, if market gets underneath there, likely looking for the continuation lower. But right now I think the intraday, we’re watching for potential intraday reversal points from that blue-shaded area.
Four-hour timeframe. You could see the stall out here just underneath the blue zone, but again, we could see some indications of pressure back higher. So, back above 0.9660 may give that retracement back towards the yellow-shaded area early on this week.
Moving over to the EURUSD. Just the opposite of that, we could see the market stalling out at resistance. We actually drew this black box in here last week between the pink zone as support, resistance at the orange-shaded area. The orange zone is 1.1260 to 1.1280. So, we could see the market stalling out there. Even if I zoom it in a little bit, you could see, again, today’s candle opening a little lower than Friday’s candle close. So, Friday’s candle close up here towards 1.1280. Today’s candle opening up at 1.1270, so about ten pips lower than Friday’s close.
So, that, again, gives us some intraday or potential short-term reversal here for this currency pair. Again, I don’t think it’d be too difficult given this resistance that we’re seeing here at the orange-shaded area. I don’t think it’d be too difficult to see this at least challenge back here to the pink-shaded area into the 1.1200-level. So, staying under the orange zone, potential reversal back here. Even if you’re a buyer, if you’re thinking buying is a better idea on the EURUSD or going short on the USDCHF is a better idea, I think you’d prefer to see a little bit of a pullback, a little bit of a retracement before going up, because buying right now is being capped.
The buyers are being capped right here at this orange zone, or really the sellers are being capped at the support on the USDCHF. So, unless it breaks through this orange zone or dips to the pink zone, I don’t think you’re really ready to buy it. So, there’s intraday shorts may become an opportunity for you early on this week.
Take it over here to the GBPUSD. We of course have been in some congestion. We know that this week we have some election news out of the UK, so that could be very volatile for this currency pair. We’ve had some catastrophes in the UK over the past few weeks, and that could cause some volatility. So, I would be very cautious here on the GBPUSD. With the election of course this week, we could see some extreme volatility.
Technically. Let’s put all that aside. Technically we have seen the breakdown of the blue trend line. It broke the black rising channel there, so we’ve been talking about shorts for some time in the Trade Room. It’s just a matter of dealing with the volatility that we have coming up this week for the GBPUSD. But if you’re going to play through with that volatility and of course the technical aspects that we’re seeing, it may be prudent to look for sells on rallies to resistance, the green zone, 1.2950, 1.2920, maybe even the purple zone up towards the 1.3000-level, but I think the real breakdown happens when it gets underneath the orange-shaded area.
If it can get underneath 1.2770, I think we’re looking for further retracement. And of course obviously if it breaks the high up here right around 1.3000 or a little bit higher than that, we could be looking for some movement higher for the GBPUSD.
Moving over to the USDCAD. We are still within the parameters of course of the shorter or midterm downtrend. That’s the red trend line. We’re still there. I don’t think we’ve changed that. We’re also within the parameters of the rising blue trend line, the longer trend line coming back from January of this year. So, we’re kind of in a conflict right here. We have the falling red trend. We’re finding resistance there. We have the rising blue trend. We’re finding support there. So, we’re just still, even since last week, bouncing around between the yellow and the green zone.
So, if you’re a seller of the red trend, you’re selling the yellow zone, targeting the blue trend line and the green zone. If you’re a buyer, then you’re looking for one of two things. It either needs to come back down to the green zone or break above the yellow zone. And really if you’re a buyer, right now you probably are waiting and hesitating before doing anything, because it needs to be back at the green zone or break the yellow zone. I think if you’re a seller, at least you’re at the closest lowest risk, highest reward opportunity to do that.
Of course we often discuss oil prices and how that affects the USDCAD. As you go throughout your week, you’ll want to keep an eye on those oil prices. Inversely correlated. Oil goes up, USDCAD goes down, and vice versa. Oil goes down, USDCAD goes up. So, keep an eye on oil prices. Watch for a breakout of this black box, green and yellow-shaded area. But at least at this point, I don’t think I would buy it underneath that yellow-shaded area for the USDCAD today.
Moving over to the USDJPY. We have seen a breakdown of this range or period of congestion. I want to point out a couple of things here on the daily timeframe. First off, look back here at this black box on the left-hand side. In fact, let me change the color of it so we don’t have two black boxes on the chart. Let’s make that one blue. So, back here, where the blue box is, look at the support at the yellow-shaded area. That’s what I want you to see. The support here. Support. Eventually it broke it, but there’s a lot of support at the yellow-shaded area.
Even right here, where this black circle is, just to the left of the current price, you could see support at the yellow zone. So, right now it’s not too hard to see that this yellow-shaded area between 110 and 110.30 is likely to be some pretty significant support. We’re already seeing today’s candle has bounced off of that yellow-shaded area. So, that’s definitely somewhere that you’ll want to pay attention to. If you’re a short seller here for the USDJPY, you’re going to need it to get through that yellow zone and through 110, just like it did back here.
You need to know there’s support there. You need it to get through there. If you’re looking to sell, it’s likely the best reason or opportunity to do that would be that it rallies back into resistance. And currently the pink-shaded area is your resistance. Not too hard to see it was support; now acting as resistance. That’s 110.65 to 110.85. So, if you’re a seller, looking for the continuation of the bearish momentum, you’re looking at 110.65 to 110.85 as a potential opportunity. And then the break of 110, the yellow zone for a continuation lower.
And of course on the other side of that, if you’re looking for some reversal again, watch today’s candle. I think you’re likely going to need to see today’s candle back above the pink zone, 110.65 to 110.85. You’re going to need it back above there if you’re looking for any signs or evidence of reversal. Above the pink zone, we look for it to start working its way back higher. But until then, bouncing around in here could be an opportunity to go short at the pink zone, maybe looking for reversal points from the yellow zone, but at least at this point, the momentum is clearly bearish and down for the USDJPY.
Moving over to the AUDUSD. I haven’t mentioned a lot about news this week, but we do have some significant news this week out of Australia coming up at 12:30AM on Tuesday. That’s Eastern US time, so it depends on where you are in the world when that hits for you, but we do have interest rate news coming out of Australia in the next 24 hours. So, you’ll want to watch that. Some GDP later on than that, and trade balance coming up even on Wednesday. So, a good bit of news here at the first and mid-part of the week for Australia.
But significant pullback. Significant run back higher off of the blue-shaded area and the black trend line. Last week, we were looking for buys into the green zone. Unfortunately, it took a dip to the blue zone before going back up. If you held through those buys, of course you’re back into profit now. The orange zone, 0.7495 to 0.7510. Look at the black circles. We know it’s been support and even resistance on the far left-hand side. So, if you’re a buyer, if you’re in a buy or if you’re looking to buy, be cautious about buying underneath that orange zone because that will be resistance.
If you’re looking to buy it, I think you want it to be closer at least to the green zone to give yourself lower risk and higher reward. Now, if you’re looking for resistance and reversal to go back down, the orange zone is very interesting. I think even the yellow zone is interesting with the 100-period moving average sitting up there. But we have a lot of news coming up this early part of the week for Australia. May be prudent to watch that news before you make any trading decisions here for the AUDUSD.
Lastly, moving over to the NZDUSD. I think this is an interesting setup that we have here. We tried to challenge. We didn’t try. We did challenge higher. We did take some buys down here around the moving average, the 100-period moving average into the 0.7070, 0.7045-level, the blue zone last week. If you held through that, of course significant profit on Friday. We do see some hesitation here. If you’re familiar with the bearish harami candle, you could see that coming up right now. It’ll depend on how the day closes out, but that could be a clue that we’re looking for a stall out of the uptrend, the upside, and maybe even a push back down underneath this purple-shaded area. Could be looking for some interesting reversal clues here coming up on the NZDUSD.
So, bearish harami. Study that. Check that out if you’re looking for reversal. Otherwise, staying above 0.7130, 0.7115, we may challenge once again towards the yellow-shaded area. Really it’ll be interesting to see how today unfolds on the NZDUSD, but back underneath 0.7115, I think we’re back easily to the mid to upper-0.7000s, down here to the blue zone. Of course a break higher above last Friday’s high and above the yellow zone, 0.7150, probably looking for the continuation of the uptrend.
If you’re a buyer, I think back down here at the blue zone is a better place to buy it, not at the top of the trend. If you’re a seller, you’re looking at this bearish harami candle and saying hey, maybe this is our first clue of some pullback for the NZDUSD this week.
Forex Update: Starting the Week with an Overview for USD Pairs
https://www.forextradersdaily.com/fo...for-usd-pairs/