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Attachments: Multi Stoch - expanding upon 'Spud's Stochastic Thread Theory'
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Multi Stoch - expanding upon 'Spud's Stochastic Thread Theory'

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  • Post #181
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  • Jan 12, 2017 11:44pm Jan 12, 2017 11:44pm
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
OK thread, Happy (belated) New Year to you all, hope your time was rewarding.

I realise things have been incredibly quiet in here of late, but no I have not "run off with the programmer" (LOL).

Many thanks to Dreamwalker for keeping the ball rolling and posting his results - congrats to you, good sir! Some great pips banked there!

What I have been doing is hosting friends, preparing to host family for a three week stay, searching for a new place to live, coding, testing and tweaking, and generally not getting much sleep!

During all of this I have come to the realisation that everything I have been working on, for now anyway, is too complicated and needs to be simplified. But do not fear, this is NOT a backward step. On the contrary, I have something in store for you all which is even better than what has already been presented to date.

The problem with the current strategy is in its' implementation - after coding we were getting confusing signals and things were just not working the way I had them working in my head. To be honest, it still needs a lot of work, and I would like to offer you something simpler and just as powerful, (if not more so!)

The adjusted strategy is based on everything explained here already, but has fewer rules and better results. My programmer is busy coding and we are nearing the release date for an early version for testing. Once this is ready, I will post a Youtube-style video explaining everything to make it easier to digest than a whole bunch of formulas.

To give you a quick overview, rather than using 19 Stoch lines, I am now only using 6. All 6 will have their K AND D lines showing. These lines will be made up of the 6 Fibonacci numbers from 5 through to 55, with a 34/3/3 from the next highest time frame as a trade filter. It earns pips like a boss.

Essentially, when there is a change in direction from the higher time frame stoch (a simple K / D cross) in conjunction with all lower time frames stochs moving in the same direction AND above / below their respective D signal lines, it is an entry signal. There are some additional criteria which I will explain in the video.

But there will be NO MORE LWMA, NO MORE Bollinger Bands, NO MORE setup alerts etc. Just one alert to enter and one to exit. Far simpler and far more profitable.

See screenshot for an indication of how easy and powerful this is. Arrows are entries and crosses are exits.

There has admittedly been the standard problem of how to deal with repainting when dealing with a MTF indicator, but we are close to finalising a solution which should mean that this is no longer an issue.

PLEASE NOTE: I HAVE NOT ABANDONED MY INITIAL IDEA FOR THIS THREAD - I STILL HOPE TO HAVE A SOLUTION AVAILABLE IN THE FUTURE FOR THAT STRATEGY. This is an interim idea which will offer you pips until I get the more complicated stuff finalised.

To our joint success this year!

Kirk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Screenshot of Fibo Stoch.PNG
Size: 151 KB
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  • Post #182
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  • Jan 13, 2017 12:06am Jan 13, 2017 12:06am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
And to get you started, here is an early version.

It is NOT to be traded live - this is an early version that IS REPAINTING. It is intended to give you a taste of what is coming. So USE AT YOUR OWN RISK!! There is no point posting here complaining about losses when this is not ready to be used live.

All of the attached .ex4 files will need to be added to your Experts/Indicators folder, and the template file into your Templates folder. Then just refresh your Navigator window and open the template file to make it easy.

I am sure you understand my need to only provide .ex4 files at this stage, until my programmer and I feel ready and confident that the actual indicator is robust enough for release. So please do not ask for the .mq4 files.

More to come - stay tuned!
Attached File
File Type: rar FIBO STOCH files.rar   153 KB | 1,100 download
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  • Post #183
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:55am Jan 13, 2017 12:24am | Edited at 3:55am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
The first condition that needs to be present for an entry is the TF2 K/D crossover needs to have a particular separation between the individual values.

After much backtesting, the strongest moves have come from a cross where the value difference between K and D after a cross has widened by at least "1". Anything less proves to be a weaker move, and thus this has been chosen as one entry criteria for TF2 (next highest TF).

These values can be easily seen in the data window when hovering your mouse over the period in question. The values are labelled "K NHTF" and "D NHTF".

This condition was not built into the version I have just offered you, it will be coded in to the next release. Therefore, if you are trading this (on a DEMO!) please check these values and only trade those crossovers with a value differential of at least "1".

Screenshot illustrates an example of a weak cross and a stronger cross.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #184
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  • Jan 13, 2017 12:34am Jan 13, 2017 12:34am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,781 Posts
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
OK thread, Happy (belated) New Year to you all, hope your time was rewarding. I realise things have been incredibly quiet in here of late, but no I have not "run off with the programmer" (LOL). Many thanks to Dreamwalker for keeping the ball rolling and posting his results - congrats to you, good sir! Some great pips banked there! What I have been doing is hosting friends, preparing to host family for a three week stay, searching for a new place to live, coding, testing and tweaking, and generally not getting much sleep! During all of this I have...
Ignored
What an awesome job you did here! Congrats and keep up the great work!
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
3
  • Post #185
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 12:47am Jan 13, 2017 12:47am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
The second lot of criteria for an entry require the TF1 Stochastics to be in agreement on direction, as in the existing Multi Stoch strategy.

Therefore, (for a BUY example) ALL 6 Stochs need to be greater than their previous value, and ALL 6 Stoch K values need to be greater than their respective D signal line values.

When combined with a TF2 crossover, this provides a safe entry that has minimal drawdown. Target can be whatever you like and Stop Loss just beyond most recent swing point.

So, all together now:

ENTRY:

When:
1) TF2 K(34) value > K(34) value previous bar / K(34) value > D(34) / Separation Value (SV) between K34 and D34 > 1 AND
2) TF1 ALL K values > ALL K values previous bar / ALL K values > ALL respective D values .

EXIT:

When: TF2 K(34) value < previous bar AND TF1 ALL K values < previous bar.

SIMPLE!

Combined Stochastic values will only move in a single direction together if price pushes them in that direction. But a single time frame doesn't give us everything we need...having the TF2 as a filter offers far better clarity.
1
  • Post #186
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 1:18am Jan 13, 2017 1:18am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
The last thing I will say about this today is in relation to the MTF repainting issue, and how to (hopefully) deal with it effectively for now.

When considering whether a signal is valid, particularly when there is a risk of repainting, always wait for the close of the higher time frame (TF2) bar before entering. This will ensure you are using the best information available to make your entry.

So, if you see a blue vertical line and a blue arrow and feel itching to get in and BUY, but we are only 1 candle into the higher time frame and there are 3 or four candles to go, step aside and wait patiently to ensure the signal is valid and the signal remains on the screen.

Future versions won't have this issue, but for now, BUYER BEWARE!
  • Post #187
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 1:46am Jan 13, 2017 1:46am
  •  Zokynho
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 934 Posts
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
And to get you started, here is an early version. It is NOT to be traded live - this is an early version that IS REPAINTING. It is intended to give you a taste of what is coming. So USE AT YOUR OWN RISK!! There is no point posting here complaining about losses when this is not ready to be used live. All of the attached .ex4 files will need to be added to your Experts/Indicators folder, and the template file into your Templates folder. Then just refresh your Navigator window and open the template file to make it easy. I am sure you understand my...
Ignored
great job Kirkleaforex!

Highest regards!
2
  • Post #188
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:09am Jan 13, 2017 3:09am
  •  aaven
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 2,266 Posts | Invisible
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
And to get you started, here is an early version. It is NOT to be traded live - this is an early version that IS REPAINTING. It is intended to give you a taste of what is coming. So USE AT YOUR OWN RISK!! There is no point posting here complaining about losses when this is not ready to be used live. All of the attached .ex4 files will need to be added to your Experts/Indicators folder, and the template file into your Templates folder. Then just refresh your Navigator window and open the template file to make it easy. I am sure you understand my...
Ignored
Attached Image
2
  • Post #189
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:25am Jan 13, 2017 3:25am
  •  kelvinyun
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 189 Posts
My dear kirk... I'm lost. Need some time to absorb your new strategy. You spent two hours writing the post (kudos!) so I probably need two days to learn. Will study it during the weekend.

Meanwhile, I am still using the old indicator on 1H charts with great success. It gives good entries (but bad exits cos it lags, will give up some winning pips). So I never follow the exits. Instead I just use basic support resistance area to determine exit points. 40 green pips on one trade today.
3
  • Post #190
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:38am Jan 13, 2017 3:38am
  •  saad007
  • Joined May 2013 | Status: PLAN YOUR TRADE and TRADE YOUR PLAN | 509 Posts
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
OK thread, Happy (belated) New Year to you all, hope your time was rewarding. I realise things have been incredibly quiet in here of late, but no I have not "run off with the programmer" (LOL). Many thanks to Dreamwalker for keeping the ball rolling and posting his results - congrats to you, good sir! Some great pips banked there! What I have been doing is hosting friends, preparing to host family for a three week stay, searching for a new place to live, coding, testing and tweaking, and generally not getting much sleep! During all of this I have...
Ignored
I really appreciate all the hard work you’ve done to help us.

Kind regarads
3
  • Post #191
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:51am Jan 13, 2017 3:51am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
Quoting kelvinyun
Disliked
My dear kirk... I'm lost. Need some time to absorb your new strategy. You spent two hours writing the post (kudos!) so I probably need two days to learn. Will study it during the weekend. Meanwhile, I am still using the old indicator on 1H charts with great success. It gives good entries (but bad exits cos it lags, will give up some winning pips). So I never follow the exits. Instead I just use basic support resistance area to determine exit points. 40 green pips on one trade today.
Ignored
Kelvinyun I apologise if you feel lost

I am very happy that the main strategy is earning you pips...so stick to that for the meantime if you prefer. Yes the exits can come a little late; a decent exit strategy can be so many things, and very hard to code in a way that keeps everybody happy, so I encourage people to utilise what they think is best when it comes to exits.

I will always support people who seek clarification, regardless of what strategy. Thanks for your post, and best of good fortune to you!
2
  • Post #192
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:52am Jan 13, 2017 3:52am
  •  mackem73
  • | Joined Jul 2016 | Status: Member | 62 Posts
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
OK thread, Happy (belated) New Year to you all, hope your time was rewarding. I realise things have been incredibly quiet in here of late, but no I have not "run off with the programmer" (LOL). Many thanks to Dreamwalker for keeping the ball rolling and posting his results - congrats to you, good sir! Some great pips banked there! What I have been doing is hosting friends, preparing to host family for a three week stay, searching for a new place to live, coding, testing and tweaking, and generally not getting much sleep! During all of this I have...
Ignored
No wonder you have not had much sleep Kirk
1
1
  • Post #193
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:53am Jan 13, 2017 3:53am
  •  Purplerain
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 25 Posts
Thank you for all your time and effort it is much appreciated.
2
  • Post #194
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:16am Jan 13, 2017 6:16am
  •  kelvinyun
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 189 Posts
Quoting kirkleaforex
Disliked
The first condition that needs to be present for an entry is the TF2 K/D crossover needs to have a particular separation between the individual values. After much backtesting, the strongest moves have come from a cross where the value difference between K and D after a cross has widened by at least "1". Anything less proves to be a weaker move, and thus this has been chosen as one entry criteria for TF2 (next highest TF). These values can be easily seen in the data window when hovering your mouse over the period in question. The values are labelled...
Ignored
To reinforce my understanding:

CONDITION ONE - ON HIGHER TIME FRAME
a) %K (Faster) must cross %D (Simple Moving Average - Slower)
b) The difference between %K & %D must be over a certain value, i.e. 1.
Conclusion: This is a test of momentum?

CONDITION TWO - ON LOWER TIME FRAME
a) All 6 stochs need to be greater than previous value
b) All 6 stochs %K must be greater than %D
Conclusion: To confirm the momentum?
  • Post #195
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:47am Jan 13, 2017 6:47am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
Quoting kelvinyun
Disliked
{quote} To reinforce my understanding: CONDITION ONE - ON HIGHER TIME FRAME a) %K (Faster) must cross %D (Simple Moving Average - Slower) b) The difference between %K & %D must be over a certain value, i.e. 1. Conclusion: This is a test of momentum? CONDITION TWO - ON LOWER TIME FRAME a) All 6 stochs need to be greater than previous value b) All 6 stochs %K must be greater than %D Conclusion: To confirm the momentum?
Ignored
Hi again,

I have been using EMA as the input price field instead of SMA, but apart from that yes, it is a simple cross with a minimum separation value requirement.

I am unsure whether this actually means that momentum is building. All I know is that, after exhaustive research I see repeated instances of stronger moves after an SV > 1 is present. Not always, but mostly.

And your summation of TF1 conditions is also correct.

And again, I guess it could be described as the start of a build in momentum, but I couldn't confirm that. I do know that when all stochs are pointing in the same direction, and have all crossed above / below their respective D signal lines, there is strong consensus on direction and price tends to form a trend. Again, not always, but it can be counted on as a general rule that can be exploited through a strategy such as this.

Overall my theory is that if all TF1 stochs are in agreement, and if this in turn is further confirmed by a higher time frame confluent signal, then this forms a solid base for pulling the trigger.

As always, smart trading is less about the strategy, and more about protecting your account through mitigating the potential for loss. This strategy will work very well if you allow it to and you are careful with your entries and stop loss placement, as with any strategy.

EDIT: Need to mention that the exit conditions are not as strict as for the entry. If they were the exits would be coming in late.

Therefore, rather than insisting that all TF1 K values have had a change in direction AND crossed back over their respective D values, it is enough to see all K values have a change in direction, which is again confirmed through the simultaneous TF2 change in direction.

This also means that an exit can occur WITHOUT automatically becoming a new entry condition in the opposite direction. There is no need to be "always in the market".
  • Post #196
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:50am Jan 13, 2017 6:50am
  •  DirkH143
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Member | 647 Posts
How do you measure the value between K and D?

Thx.
D.
  • Post #197
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:56am Jan 13, 2017 6:56am
  •  MidnightRun
  • Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Jack of All Trades | 730 Posts
Quoting kelvinyun
Disliked
My dear kirk... I'm lost. Need some time to absorb your new strategy. You spent two hours writing the post (kudos!) so I probably need two days to learn. Will study it during the weekend. Meanwhile, I am still using the old indicator on 1H charts with great success. It gives good entries (but bad exits cos it lags, will give up some winning pips). So I never follow the exits. Instead I just use basic support resistance area to determine exit points. 40 green pips on one trade today.
Ignored
Kelvinyun,
Could you post a couple of charts with entries (and exits) marked?

Thank you.
  • Post #198
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:43am Jan 13, 2017 7:27am | Edited at 7:43am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
Quoting DirkH143
Disliked
How do you measure the value between K and D? Thx. D.
Ignored
G'day there!

Open up your data window (crosshair looking icon), and then search for values named K NHTF and D NHTF (you may have to scroll?)

Then just hover your mouse over the start of any new TF2 candle when there is a signal and you will see the values appear in the data window.

Then it is just a subtraction.

EDIT: In the screenshot I had my mouse at the start of the TF2 change in direction for the SELL signal in the middle of the screen. The values can be seen in the data window to the left. It just scraped in at a little over "1", but it is enough. See the sell signal further along to the left? The SV for that signal was only 0.13 - and look what happened.

However this is just to illustrate how to look for the values in the data window, this is not the procedure to check for values when considering entering a trade.

As mentioned before, always wait until the close of the TF2 candle before taking an entry, and then check the values at the close of the TF2 candle where an alert signal has appeared. Always better to be patient and take a confirmed signal and not one that may only appear for a short time and then disappear on you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: K NHTF and D NHTF.png
Size: 151 KB
  • Post #199
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:41am Jan 13, 2017 7:41am
  •  kirkleaforex
  • Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Future Pipillionaire | 394 Posts
In that same screenshot in the post above, there has been a change in direction on the TF2 stochastic, however at the time the alert was printed the value difference was only 0.4. And we have sideways movement with no volatility in the move.

While it may certainly end up becoming a bullish move, I would wait it out - a better signal will always be not too far away.
  • Post #200
  • Quote
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:48am Jan 13, 2017 7:48am
  •  kelvinyun
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 189 Posts
Quoting MidnightRun
Disliked
{quote} Kelvinyun, Could you post a couple of charts with entries (and exits) marked? Thank you.
Ignored
Hi,
I'm not even sure if what I'm doing is the same thing that is taught by kirk. But anyway, it works.


the simple rule...

1) buy/sell when the threads converge become rope AND its overbought or oversold. see the area marked red.
2) trade with the trend. If the trend is UP, then buy when oversold. Don't ever ever short in an uptrend even with perfect signals.
3) U will realize that entering immediately when the threads first become rope is a bad move. wait for one or two more candles later.

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