Hi,
I made a brainless expert advisor that fallows most the Vegas Daily method un EURJPY. It opens positions when the outer fib lines are hit (risk model 1, 233pips from the slowest MA). Vegas suggests 24 and 28 EMAs on daily charts, however, I see better results when using 30 and 35 EMAs. A position consists of 6 units and profit is taken partly on every fib line (and first tunnel line) hit. Fixed stoploss is 34 pips, and it is moved when first fib line is hit and first profit unit taken. Aproximately 4% of balance is risked per trade and there is always only one trade open. If profit is booked, then the 4% represents a larger lot size in the next trade. In other words, lots increase in good times and decrease in bad.
Backtesting results on 1min data for last 24 month show the following results:
Initial deposit: 10000.00
Total trades: 153
Gross profit: 94560.89
Gross loss: -28955.79
Total net profit: 65605.10
Profit trades (% of total): 117 (76.47%)
Loss trades (% of total)36 (23.53%)
Maximal drawdown (%): 6002.58 (8.6%)
This is not the best result you can make from this EA, but it is the most realistic and safe taking into account the small StopLoss and relatively small equity drawdown.
You can see the full report here including equity graph here:
http://www.forexfix.com/reports/35ma-34sl.htm
I'm open for criticism as I know backtesting and even forward testing is not a guarantee for success and profits. However I tweaked the EA it made bigger or smaller profits, but always profits.
Comments welcome.
update: notes to myself - there is still work to be done on the consecutive losses thingy and reentering. maybe after two losses in a row a switch to 4h is neccessary for better entrance? whatever the losses, its all made up in the next successful trade. looks good so far but with some work can look better.
CORRECTION: MetaTrader backtesting doesn't handle properly partial position closing and in reality only 27 of 63 (43%) total trades are profitable (had to do my own counting), nevertheless the gain is the same. this only proves how powerful is the vegas daily method. an aproximate estimate is that my trades have 1:11 risk/reward and it needs one successfull trade to make up for 11 losses.
I made a brainless expert advisor that fallows most the Vegas Daily method un EURJPY. It opens positions when the outer fib lines are hit (risk model 1, 233pips from the slowest MA). Vegas suggests 24 and 28 EMAs on daily charts, however, I see better results when using 30 and 35 EMAs. A position consists of 6 units and profit is taken partly on every fib line (and first tunnel line) hit. Fixed stoploss is 34 pips, and it is moved when first fib line is hit and first profit unit taken. Aproximately 4% of balance is risked per trade and there is always only one trade open. If profit is booked, then the 4% represents a larger lot size in the next trade. In other words, lots increase in good times and decrease in bad.
Backtesting results on 1min data for last 24 month show the following results:
Initial deposit: 10000.00
Total trades: 153
Gross profit: 94560.89
Gross loss: -28955.79
Total net profit: 65605.10
Profit trades (% of total): 117 (76.47%)
Loss trades (% of total)36 (23.53%)
Maximal drawdown (%): 6002.58 (8.6%)
This is not the best result you can make from this EA, but it is the most realistic and safe taking into account the small StopLoss and relatively small equity drawdown.
You can see the full report here including equity graph here:
http://www.forexfix.com/reports/35ma-34sl.htm
I'm open for criticism as I know backtesting and even forward testing is not a guarantee for success and profits. However I tweaked the EA it made bigger or smaller profits, but always profits.
Comments welcome.
update: notes to myself - there is still work to be done on the consecutive losses thingy and reentering. maybe after two losses in a row a switch to 4h is neccessary for better entrance? whatever the losses, its all made up in the next successful trade. looks good so far but with some work can look better.
CORRECTION: MetaTrader backtesting doesn't handle properly partial position closing and in reality only 27 of 63 (43%) total trades are profitable (had to do my own counting), nevertheless the gain is the same. this only proves how powerful is the vegas daily method. an aproximate estimate is that my trades have 1:11 risk/reward and it needs one successfull trade to make up for 11 losses.
