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The Swamp

Quoting euroboy2208
Am feeling so bad and down today...I had euro shorts after fomc at 1.0950 and 1.0972.. it went all the way to 1.1034 during asia session... I booked loss at 1.1000 thinking it wil support and go to 1.11 or 1.12 during ecb Booked loss as scared loss will be more if jumps and wipe account .. Now today I see cost came on Thursday US session and today would have been bumper profit .it's at 1.0794 almost 200 pip profit ALWAYS this happens in euro when I book loss position comes in cost next day andmore profit later But if I hold position with loss.it...
it seems that you have to adjust something in your strategy or in yourself (psychology).
Quoting euroboy2208
Am feeling so bad and down today...I had euro shorts after fomc at 1.0950 and 1.0972.. it went all the way to 1.1034 during asia session... I booked loss at 1.1000 thinking it wil support and go to 1.11 or 1.12 during ecb Booked loss as scared loss will be more if jumps and wipe account .. Now today I see cost came on Thursday US session and today would have been bumper profit .it's at 1.0794 almost 200 pip profit ALWAYS this happens in euro when I book loss position comes in cost next day and more profit later But if I hold position with loss.it...
Fridays often suck. This week can destroy accounts. One thing about a snowball trade is. You can trade a small position with wider stops.. If your stopped out, you lose that smaller position loss. If its running in your favor you can add another small position. After your first position has a positive stop. At that point you wait for position 2 has a some distance for a s/l. Then you work on position 3 and so fourth. You will lose trades if your on the wrong side. But that is happening already in any trade. But on those days you on the right side (like today). You can amass a large collective trade. With all your stops except the last trade. Theoretically in some profit. In a trend change this can accumulate nicely (you want to be in a trend to snowball). Traded smaller lots with those wider stops can pay in the long run. A snowball at the right time can multiply earnings. Trading smaller positions means smaller loses. Its the opposite thinking of averaging down. Averaging up on the winner in a trend. Each time I have a new trade at B.E. + 4 in my case. I can add another position. If you catch a few of these each month. Its worth the boring times of not trading in the middle. If bored and wanna do something. you can close the last trade when its in profit. Because the last trade should be the only one with risk.

When it blows up or you have enough.. Tp.. Look for the next big thing. Find and wait for a setup. That may take days, weeks or months. If day trading trade the better hs London into U.s.
There is snowballing or pyramid ea's out there. Some free ones. So you can sleep while your just risking a smaller trades stop loss. Once you up 100 pips or whatever number you like. You can limit the last trades risk with a trailing stop. You can trail all the trades you like with a trailing stop. If the direction turns on you and you have many trades. You can stop adding trades if you like. By then you should be positive no matter what. Oh well cry about making money.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fridays often suck. This week can destroy accounts. One thing about a snowball trade is. You can trade a small position with wider stops.. If your stopped out, you lose that smaller position loss. If its running in your favor you can add another small position. After your first position has a positive stop. At that point you wait for position 2 has a some distance for a s/l. Then you work on position 3 and so fourth. You will lose trades if your on the wrong side. But that is happening already in any trade. But on those days you on the right...
PS you can put multiple ea's to trade the same pair.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Thanks Gator and chess king.. I wil reflect and change my strategy and come back strongly. Have a nice weekend.
Gap?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
The next place bears need to beat is 1.07 or 1.0994. There is a little dispute because different brokers have different closes. Closing above 1.07 after being under 1.07 or 1.0694 may be a bear rejection. Just like Friday closing below 1.0835 was a bull rejection. The news was favorable for a usd bull (EU drop). All that has to be done over at 1.07/0694. Closing above 1.07 is not so bearish after its tested. There is an algo at 1.0710. Between 1.0694 and 1.07 anything can happen even now. Friday looked very bearish, with not much retrace. Bears have to continue that below 1.07/0694. a year support is in yellow. Pa dropped 35ish pips from year s1.

I will show a Quarter next.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
The next place bears need to beat is 1.07 or 1.0994. There is a little dispute because different brokers have different closes. Closing above 1.07 after being under 1.07 or 1.0694 may be a bear rejection. Just like Friday closing below 1.0835 was a bull rejection. The news was favorable for a usd bull (EU drop). All that has to be done over at 1.07/0694. Closing above 1.07 is not so bearish after its tested. There is an algo at 1.0710. Between 1.0694 and 1.07 anything can happen even now. Friday looked very bearish, with not much retrace. Bears...
Quarter here. Month next.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Quarter here. Month next. {image}
The month is showing it may have some support just below 1.07, at 1.0689. Using 1.0710 algo with some slip. This area may be supportive, added with 1.07 (1.0694) quarter and year.

I will do a year chart of past years (the yellow line marked yr pp). It will show that yellow line is often very tough. The breaking of one has also changed long term directions. Most often often the bounce, or break can yield many hundreds of pips. And it may yield a future long term direction. As things stand, Dec closed above 1.07 and 1.0835. Major news Friday has hurt EU bulls. Or they just took profit, and are waiting for another spot. 1.0710 is not the biggest algo. But its near 1.07..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The month is showing it may have some support just below 1.07, at 1.0689. Using 1.0710 algo with some slip. This area may be supportive, added with 1.07 (1.0694) quarter and year. I will do a year chart of past years (the yellow line marked yr pp). It will show that yellow line is often very tough. The breaking of one has also changed long term directions. Most often often the bounce, or break can yield many hundreds of pips. And it may yield a future long term direction. As things stand, Dec closed above 1.07 and 1.0835. Major news Friday...
About 7 years worth of yellow. You can see the breaks, you can see the stops. It like this through out eu history,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
I planned on starting a snowball short position above 1.1186. Friday's pa atm dont look favorable to that. At 1.07 area I plan to do this with small longs. I did a few shorts Friday on that second break of 1.0835. Those are not so safe yet either. Tp those 1.0712. Snowball on small tf entries,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
Gap? {image}
A substantial gap up after Fridays late selloff, especially if it can manage to bid above 1.0835/50/60

Friday hurt my bullish thesis. A gap and go up open is one of the "ifs" to get me to reallocate extra leverage back long. That doesn't materialize and I'm looking for our old friend 1.0735/1.0740 again... Larger retrace to 1.0275 cannot be ruled out either...
Usd jpy showing a 110 big gap already. Even aud is down 30 pips

With US DOD shooting down Chinese surveillance Ballon gonna be a volatile day if china responds verbally and tensions soar.. even nasdaq and dow jones are showing gap down..
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Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} A substantial gap up after Fridays late selloff, especially if it can manage to bid above 1.0835/50/60 Friday hurt my bullish thesis. A gap and go up open is one of the "ifs" to get me to reallocate extra leverage back long. That doesn't materialize and I'm looking for our old friend 1.0735/1.0740 again... Larger retrace to 1.0275 cannot be ruled out either...
Since it did break below 1.0835 to close a week. Its something to add some caution about longs. The month did close above it. But that was before this latest employment report. I dont know if it would be able to take out 1.07 yet. The early signs of a bull recovery would be pa above 1.0835, and a Tuesday close above 1.0862. I dont think the dust has settled yet. It did look bearish Friday, but pa is still above 1.07.. I think -1.07, or +1.0835 is going to determine the direction. Atm the year did close below 1.0835, the month above 1.0835. I would like to think the year is right. But it would allow a wick to reach 1.1186/slip. (to equalize ballast) Before a big descending move down...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since it did break below 1.0835 to close a week. Its something to add some caution about longs. The month did close above it. But that was before this latest employment report. I dont know if it would be able to take out 1.07 yet. The early signs of a bull recovery would be pa above 1.0835, and a Tuesday close above 1.0862. I dont think the dust has settled yet. It did look bearish Friday, but pa is still above 1.07.. I think -1.07, or +1.0835 is going to determine the direction. Atm the year did close below 1.0835, the month above 1.0835....
I'm pretty much seeing what you are seeing...

I'm not looking to take a heavy breakout either way. Without the gap and go price suggests consolidation and more upside.
We are clearly running into some institutional orders from a year ago. Looking at the PA then gives clarity and was at the forefront of my decision to close longs at 1.1021....

The trend is bullish, and tops are not usually put in on Friday NFP days. More often than not those speed candles are fully swallowed.

But again, AI don't have an edge at the current bid/ask. So I will be waiting and holding macro longs.

Edited: had to add the "not" lol
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I'm pretty much seeing what you are seeing... I'm not looking to take a heavy breakout either way. Without the gap and go price suggests consolidation and more upside. We are clearly running into some institutional orders from a year ago. Looking at the PA then gives clarity and was at the forefront of my decision to close longs at 1.1021.... The trend is bullish, and tops are usually put in on Friday NFP days. More often than not those speed candles are fully swallowed. But again, AI don't have an edge at the current bid/ask. So I will...
I do have some small shorts in hope of a snowball near 1.07 to tp. But it will not be heavy/risk trading last week's shooting star. I can always short if it breaks down below 1.07. Once in the 1.07 area i will start a smaller snowball long. If it would break 1.0835 I may do one there too. And just add if Tuesday closes above 1.0862
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
1.0835/1.0700=1.0767.5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
1.0835/1.0700=1.0767.5
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
that weekly stinks for bulls

1.0780/1.0796 may be some R
Quoting Don96
that weekly stinks for bulls 1.0780/1.0796 may be some R
1.0780- gave +40 so far..
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