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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,881
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:25am Jun 13, 2011 9:59am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting zfm
Thank you so much for your detailed response fti, which i did not expect. I will take your much valued counsel to heart. Don't worry, my forays into the market are minute, and currently the protection of my capital is my chief aim until I have fully mastered the feel of the dance.

Have a good rest. I believe that your body wants to heal itself if you let it. Keep your eyes on the Lord always. As I always believe that one of the chef aims of infirmities is to take one's focus back to self. God bless

2 Corinthians 5:21

For He made Him...
thank you, zfm.
be good.

regards

yes the sinless died for all the sinful that there is second chance.
So we try not nail any one else with evil deeds.
The lesson God had gave us already.
God bless.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CimKKnKUYrU
Hello again FTI,

Was reading a post where you talked about the importance of being focused...how you provided sandwiches, cigarettes etc. so that there were no distractions to your traders...and the broker paying for them to "paint the town red" so they get a bit of relaxation and refreshment.

Just wondering...once they were trained by you, did each, based on your evaluation, trade X amt of the book as well as focus on one instrument at a time. Did they rotate instruments? Also heard of psychological profiles being done that may look similar to a price graph...giving a heads up as to the days traders were at their best etc. Trying to visualize the scenario in your dealing room some .

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Quoting fti
thank you, zfm.
be good.

regards

yes the sinless died for all the sinful that there is second chance.
So we try not nail any one else with evil deeds.
The lesson God had gave us already.
God bless.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CimKKnKUYrU
Hi fti, don't want to turn the thread into a religious one but I can't use pm yet. But just one thing, you are already righteous in the eyes of God cos He took your place. When He sees you He sees you in Christ. The deed is done, just need one to accept and believe in it.
My apologize to others, but I felt the urge to say this to fti.
  • #25,884
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:11am Jun 13, 2011 10:55am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again FTI,

Was reading a post where you talked about the importance of being focused...how you provided sandwiches, cigarettes etc. so that there were no distractions to your traders...and the broker paying for them to "paint the town red" so they get a bit of relaxation and refreshment.

Just wondering...once they were trained by you, did each, based on your evaluation, trade X amt of the book as well as focus on one instrument at a time. Did they rotate instruments? Also heard of psychological profiles being done that may look similar...
the traininfg is mostly on the job.
Juniors are given daylight limit lines between 2 mio(million) usd to 10 mio depending on their book performance. Seniors can daylight between 10 to 50 mio, nd allowed quote in 20s. There is a very jubgle bunch of from econmist and tech traders to spot and money market traders. Normally the big time economist and and specialist traders like synthetic writers/ arbitragers are housed in special units which have a desk like from 100 mio to 1 B, also depending on their performances.
So training is not across the board and we selectively eyeball for the best to train. Before sending delaers to desk normally we like move them around TMU( customers Treasury markrting unit) for treasury product -understanding for market structure for their foundational grounding.

I do not do any phyco anaylsis of any one, as an analyst my self i normally vcan eyeball , those that have the qualities from feel and sight of their behaviours and charisma. So there's no fixed rules for me.
But lately much of these thingys are hitting dealing room on professional profiling candidate, as well as wierd ( my opinion) risk managing profiling by risk and compliance credit.
For me i hold opinion that this sterio typing the dealers is missing developing many good dealers. With the avent of robot dealers , is hard profile dealers anymore, is all algos.

I think they doing all these to arrest the old problem.
Because if a dealer become very good, so also does his price. And competition for cream of the crop is very intensive amongst the banks.
The association even made special rules for laying to fallow any dealers who moves banks. Initially was set at 6 months dormancy before can start deal for another bank.

regards
Quoting zfm
Hi fti, don't want to turn the thread into a religious one but I can't use pm yet. But just one thing, you are already righteous in the eyes of God cos He took your place. When He sees you He sees you in Christ. The deed is done, just need one to accept and believe in it.
My apologize to others, but I felt the urge to say this to fti.

yes, sure hope so.
Wait till some of my skeleton drops out of the cupboard.
I like anyone else just human, and any man with no sin, he can cast stones at me.

regards
  • #25,886
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:24am Jun 13, 2011 11:11am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting fti
the traininfg is mostly on the job.
Juniors are given daylight limit lines between 2 mio(million) usd to 10 mio depending on their book performance. Seniors can daylight between 10 to 50 mio, nd allowed quote in 20s. There is a very jubgle bunch of from econmist and tech traders to spot and money market traders. Normally the big time economist and and sepelist traders like synthetic writers are housed in special untis which have a desk like from 100 mio to 1 B, also depending on their performances.
So traing is not across the bioad and we selectively...
On the job training and managing about 2M as a junior could make a trader puke once thrown by you into the deep end....and 2M may not even be deep LOL.

You mentioned "tech traders"..could you please elaborate? Are "synthetic writers" option traders?

Interesting that you can spot "those that have the qualities from feel and sight of their behaviours and charisma". Would it be asking too much what that would be?

Robot dealers is a scary thought...all algos like you said. Saw an ad somewhere and they wanted money managers with degrees in Math and or programming...all makes sense doesn't it?

I think your thinking is correct in that these methods of analysis can never be better all round than the human interaction and instinctive approach. The human mind and emotion can "pick up" so much more. Trying to "standardize" their approach is a water-downed version of the process. Trying to put everything in a "can" for easy storage and use at a later date. Freshly grown and cooked veggies still tastes better.

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Quoting FX4Newbies
On the job training and managing about 2M as a junior could make a trader puke once thrown by you into the deep end....and 2M may not even be deep LOL.

You mentioned "tech traders"..could you please elaborate? Are "synthetic writers" option traders?

Interesting that you can spot"those that have the qualities from feel and sight of their behaviours and charisma". Would it be asking too much what that would be?

Robot dealers is a scary thought...all algos like you said. Saw an ad somewhere and they wanted money managers with degrees...
tech traders, can encompass many forms of experimental technical MOs, which differ from one to another. I think these day they become sort of dynosaurs as computers had taken their jobs.

Synthetics, is very wide ranging specialist fields, options is only 1 field, others are in myrid arbitrage desks, futures trading, hedgers, all forms of swap and forward instruments that market creates, including forward swaps, credit default swaps to commercial papers, bills & bonds and off balance sheet stuffs. eg acturial hedges and so on.

For eyeballing talent, normally if you work with them close the creams will surface, it hard put a finger, because they have varying talents and skills. We just try fit the man to the task. If we cannot create the man for the task , we "steal" them from the markets. The money talks, bullshit walks.


regards
  • #25,888
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:51am Jun 13, 2011 11:31am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting fti
tech traders, can encompass many forms of experimental technical MOs, which differ from one to another. I think these day they become sort of dynosaurs as computers had taken their jobs.

Synthetics, is very wide ranging specialist fields, options is only 1 field, others are in myrid arbitrage desks, futures trading, hedgers, all forms of swap and forward instruments that market creates, including forward swaps, credit default swaps to commercial papers, bills & bonds and off balance sheet stuffs. eg acturial hedges and so on.

For eyeballing talent,...
Thanks...

Keeping up with all the synthetic trading instruments out there can be maddening I think...and I'm sure they're not yet done "creating" these instruments.

"Work with them close...." good wisdom. That is still the best method to spot and develop...like yoking a mature, seasoned ox with a young one. Somethings are hard to just teach...you've gotta get the feel for it...and that's in the doing: no other way. Just like your method of dancing...just gotta get the feel.

Very powerful insights shared throughout your thread. Still making my way toward Page 200, though I have tried about 5 rescues and all were successful .

Thanks much for EVERYTHING,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Quoting FX4Newbies
Thanks...

Keep up with all the synthetic trading instruments out there can be maddening I think...and I'm sure they're not yet done "creating" these instruments.

"Work with them close...." good wisdom. That is still the best method to spot and develop...like yoking a mature, seasoned ox with a young one. Somethings are hard to just teach...you've gotta get the feel for it...and that's in the doing: no other way. Just like you method of dancing...just gotta get the feel.

Very powerful insights shared throughout your thread. Still...
Thanks, is an maddening evolving world.
Glad you are doing good.
But try never bite more than you can chew confortably.

regards
  • #25,890
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:34pm Jun 13, 2011 11:40am | Edited 8:34pm
On another note...

Was thinking the other day of the method very commonly used where people enter a trade, put a stop and take profit and let the market have at it. If a person went to the doctor and was given a certain amount of time to correct an issue or else they could lose a limb or something if things did not improve, I don't think they will tell the MD to cut off the limb at that moment. They will probably wait and do something to improve or recover the situation.

On to trading...once the scout is in...he must be defended. If down on the trade at the moment, it is so refreshing to know that a trader doesn't have to just sit there and let the market take their stop...and their money, just like the patient has the option to make changes and work toward a more positive "health book" if I can use the term.

Was recently encouraged (with some colorful language LOL) by a dear trading buddy to use stops. I directed them to your thread. Don't think they might be ready for even understanding your approach...much less wanting to. What they have works well for them, and other professional traders use it, but, imho, your risk management approach to trading that you share is far superior as far as growing the book is concerned. Why do I say that? If a trader has 3 mistimed entries, they will probably be stopped out each time, decreasing the book. However, with your rescue method, they could easily come out ahead every time. It's just amazing!!! Maybe these other traders don't have the time to sit there (or don't want to), so they use stops. Maybe...

Had an interesting development the other day...got into a trade, timing of the entry was not great but direction was correct. Was quite comfortable with the direction. So, I went into rescue mode: no probs. At the end of it, I had added $$ to the account, but I felt sad. Then the thought came..."Aren't you trading to make $$$? If so, then, why are you sad?" Sadness was there because the TA did not work as I would have hoped on the timing of the entry. A little bruising of the ego I suppose. I think these are some of the issues you address here in your concerns about the fallacy (and other hidden issues we may not see). The human mind is an interesting thing and in trading it must be protected. Sometimes we may not understand just what is affecting its perceptions and outlooks. Maybe others thread readers would be able to identify.

FTI, I'm beginning to think that the better a trader is at managing risk, TA can be taken to a bare minimum. Am I thinking correctly there? Seems like trying to grow your book using risk management on the one hand or focus on TA on the other...well, seems like managing risk will work out better. If risk is managed effectively, the book can't help but grow.

It just makes trading soooo much easier.

...and I know there is MUCH more to learn . Just my 2 cents.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Quoting fti
But try never bite more than you can chew confortably.

regards
Heard that...been working on finding the balance for me.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Quoting fti
Hi zfm,

No, All Charts patterns have strong probability mutate from one to and another over the time sequence.
Importantance is to be able tell between the major toppings and bottoms formation. Also reversal formations and consolidation formations.
The hardest to manage poisitions in is the assasin formation. The chartist calls that the broadening pattern.
consolidations and trend continuation patternes are very straight forward. Importance must be given to the focus of the mutating patterns, because they normally do mutate to many variations...
Thank you fti for describing the dance, have been on holiday and wow, lots happening.

Regards to all,
Baifu
Quoting FX4Newbies
On another note...

Was thinking the other day of the method very commonly used where people enter a trade, put a stop and take profit and let the market have at it. If a person went to the doctor and was given a certain amount of time to correct an issue or else they could lose a limb or something if things did not improve, I don't think they will tell the MD to cut off the limb at that moment. They will probably wait and do something to improve or recover the situation.

On to trading...once the scout is in...he must be defended. If down...
well that norm.
Much people take heaps of money goto a roullette tablr and guess as well.
But everyone knows the odds are stacked against them.
But people still like do it. can't say much about that.
i need some shut eyes now. so goodnite


regards
Quoting fti
well that norm.
Much people take heaps of money goto a roullette tablr and guess as well.
But everyone knows the odds are stacked against them.
But people still like do it. can't say much about that.
i need some shut eyes now. so goodnite


regards
I think if their MO has a high enough success rate, and their stops are tight enough, they can and do come out ahead. Your approach I think would bring them out ahead by much more.

Thanks FTI and good night.

Renewed strength in the morning...GW.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good Morning Friends,

after all that postings over the weekend and yesterday I'm happy, that we are back to trading again.

Wish you all a great week!

CU,
Niels
Quoting GEfx
Hey, I hope you are liking Greensboro. Take a pic of your tomatos and post them so we can judge you by your farming gardening abilities -- LOL. That seems kind of early for tomatos but I live in Illinois and our growing season is probably behind yours. Enjoy them!
Yeah, Lusan has to post some tomatto blotter here

Just kidding here, GeFX, I couldn't refrain

Happy trading all
Tomato blotter - good idea . I want to see a detailed breakdown of the number of seeds planted, together with their cost, number and weight of fruit from each plant, and the cost of any fertiliser and equipment used in the growing of these plants. Without this information, Lusan is simply cluttering up the thread with unverifiable nonsense!
Quoting ukmanthailan
Tomato blotter - good idea . I want to see a detailed breakdown of the number of seeds planted, together with their cost, number and weight of fruit from each plant, and the cost of any fertiliser and equipment used in the growing of these plants. Without this information, Lusan is simply cluttering up the thread with unverifiable nonsense!


You will get my tomato blatter soon!
-Sorry I meant blotter-
Specially the tomato patterns.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
Quoting luSan


You will get my tomato blatter soon!
-Sorry I meant blotter-
Specially the tomato patterns.
OMG,
my favourite
add small teaspoon sugar crush tomatoes with spoon in cup.
eat raw.
i love

regards

OMG
China Raises Banks’ Reserve Ratios After Inflation Stays High in May
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/15yuan.html
they may hyper linflate. careful.
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