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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,861
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:29am Jun 13, 2011 3:49am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting fti
OMG, i praying to God on my knees.

Thanks him for sending an angel gentlemman saved my life, this time again.
I went to finalise my moneys trenasactions and when going to the bank nearly dropped but for a great gentleman from italy.
He came holding and hugging me up. Thanks to him i didn't fall and died there at the bank.He even sat with me until i was stable enough to be sent home.

OH great lord , thank you for sending me help at my weakest moments in life.
God is great, and heard all the prayers from my christain , muslim, buddhist and...
While reading your posts, you seem full of energy and wisdom. I often forget how fragile you are in your current state. I am glad that an angel saved you. I wish you had a friend like leighsww with you all the time, somebody who could take care of you and your stubbornness, no easy task. What are you doing by walking alone, anyways? Take good care of yourself and the next 20 years will pass in a jiffy. Best wishes.
  • #25,862
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:10am Jun 13, 2011 3:49am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting piccolo
@leighsww I believe your intentions are beyond good and you are a caring, mother-like person. You are like a fresh breeze of air in here for the most people but some seem to be catching a cold, lol. However, I believe you can and should communicate with fti privately over private matters. The secrecy with other members via PMs and profile messages, turning the PMs on and off is a bit like kindergarten. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate what you are doing here for fti's health and mindset.

I don't get what you are trying to achieve...
sorry piccolo,
I will not disclose this kind of info.
It people's own financials and like blotters very private. sorry.
Please no try guess, its not gro and thats the end of that.

I believe every one have their own privacy to their own learning curve.
I had given all the possible dangers and best practises to you all, hoping that all of you will navigate thru your learning curves.

I am not angry with mAmOOD, WHY SHOULD I ?
He had made good money, lots of it, but we are traders.
I can smell the danger he going into from his post, so i sound warning to try make him think. I am not at liberty to tell you how well this ex CEO is doing , althought i had seen the books. It is P & C.
All i will tell you is no he is no ,small potatoes.
Nevertheless, when he viers off the basics , I just need caution him.
I love you people like brothers, but i will still sound warning when i can feel the coming dangers.

You see when i am dead , then there will be no one to warn about it until it becomes painful. Scalping is not the MO of this thread ( neither is robotics and worksheets, is 180 degress from what is presented). He says he's not scalping. Then please define scalping? I already detected it , after he had the offers from the bank the change from basics.So i sound warning. Is that unfair? In fact i get a wierd feeling the brokers are trying recruiting him. Their approach no seems like from bankers.

I tell you people very direct. Trading is very very private endevour. You cluster and band and you will understand the effects.
Just understand that i had sound the warning. There's no necessacity prove anything. If you not believe my experiences aand what i had seen.
Then you will someday.

When you see uncalled for herding and crytal balls developing in your MO, then tyou will understand.
Also watch that ability to pull the trigger and your hope factor when that happens.
But if thats what it takes for anyone learn that, then is of choice. And all i can do is voice concern.


regards
Quoting zfm
Again, I would like to thank FTI and all the seniors for contributing to this wonderful thread. Was wondering if the ability to read chart formations critical in the dance or just watching PA is enough? If my questions sounds silly pls be patient with me as I still a fx newbie. Thanks!
PA is many things, so there is no direct answer. Seeing the flow and acting in the now is no easy task, that is something you have to master yourself. Start with MM, which seems to be a hot topic lately, lol.
Quoting fti
I tell you people very direct. Trading is very very private endevour. You cluster and band and you will understand the effects.
Just understand that i had sound the warning. There's no necessacity prove anything. If you not believe my experiences aand what i had seen.
Then you will someday.

When you see uncalled for herding and crytal balls developing in your MO, then tyou will understand.
Also watch that ability to pull the trigger and your bhope factor when that happens.
But if thats what it takes for anyone learn that, then is of choice....
Thank you for your concern and I am sorry I expressed my anger over the smallcap. Sometimes you have to put your finger in the candle flame to understand it, despite the 10x times your mother told you not to. I know the devastating effect of money in relationships with friends and family. As long as we keep it social and learning from each other, I don't see a flame, yet.
  • #25,865
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:35am Jun 13, 2011 4:15am | Edited 4:35am
Quoting piccolo
PA is many things, so there is no direct answer. Seeing the flow and acting in the now is no easy task, that is something you have to master yourself.
Thank you, ok back to some live practice, when I'm home.
  • #25,866
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:57am Jun 13, 2011 4:38am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting piccolo
Thank you for your concern and I am sorry I expressed my anger over the smallcap. Sometimes you have to put your finger in the candle flame to understand it, despite the 10x times your mother told you not to. I know the devastating effect of money in relationships with friends and family. As long as we keep it social and learning from each other, I don't see a flame, yet.
no apologies is necessay.
the usd/ yen incident was my adjustment into changed terrain.
Unfortunately some one was holding on to my shirt tails while i experience change in life.
From capacity to non capacity due to life death changes.
I also presented all this. so that you may understand the subject of mindset.
When not in the correct mindset, it not matters how good a trader is.
If i was still at the banks , I would probably already suspended myself from atctivity.
You see all things in life affects mindset.
To hold to the same is no easy task. As ego develops with success, and changing life styles and events.
So there is lessons there.
No one is infallable.
But ability to recognise and re adjust is king. Because the rescue is the difference between the rocks and a hard place.
aka soft landing.
Is ok to err, we all do, we are human.
But the mark between success failure , hangs there at the balance.

I not want show you all my life, only that there much lessons there.
not like redlion said that i am unable let go.
Thats easy. But to let go unfinished task is a little bit out of scope for me.

Maybe its not clear, i hope this can help some.
To know and to do can be very just a little different.
To know and yet do wrong is truely failure.
But sometime we get so blinded that because we know, we think we are doing.

regards

Please not think i posty all the song post for entertainment only.
i POSTED BEFORE, here again for you.
It talks about the subject we discussing.
Listen closely.
Inserted Video


Not go think about what is said literally, but think in terms of trade and you may see the point.
Quoting fti
This one i must tell you.
Is it you would report me to be banned from my own thread?
Seems you think i am problem?
I like my all my friends, know that i am greatful for their prayers and God is working all these miracles for me.
any problem mahes?"

I will stay up await your reply.

regards

sir , are you seriously saying this ? you know what kind of respect i have for you , i just caught up with the thread and saw lotsa people starts posting personal stuffs and information

to all : pls be reminded this is a public forum , any information can be used against u , stay safe by not revealing anything personal ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Secs_dywer.jpg Size: 76 KB


Good trading all
RGS
I keep reading you alkl talking aboutthe mindset that i presenting, the the MO then the MM and the strategies , as if they are litlle pieces in isolation.
The truth is that it is., but the fact is that is the resultant of combination of the mix.
I not care how good you mind set and knowledge, butyou mis que 1 component , yan you can splash.
Thats what happened to small cap.
Just 1 missing ingerdient, contingency capability and the difference was between for me Break even and the splash, which took small cap down.
My talking about small cap is not meant to highlight anything but that alone. An important lesson.

If peeps feel i am getting personal about is , you are very very far from what i am trying to convey.

regards


regards
  • #25,870
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:43am Jun 13, 2011 5:11am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting maheswara
sir , are you seriously saying this ? you know what kind of respect i have for you , i just caught up with the thread and saw lotsa people starts posting personal stuffs and information

to all : pls be reminded this is a public forum , any information can be used against u , stay safe by not revealing anything personal ...
my dear friend, as you may notice i already step away from my usual security protocol.
I now wait minute to minute of life.
This non issues to me already.
But if this helps some one have a light bulb moment.
Is no big scarifice, at all.

Thanks for the concern, mahes.
Under noprmal cercumstance i would be inclided behave as you said in all aspects.
trade well, my friend.

regards

Maybe look at it this way,
with the security protocol i may die.
With out I will most ly likely do same.
Doesn't do any harm, if it helps someone else see some light.
same with my smoking.
Doc says if i smoke i may die faster.
But if i don't doesn't mean that i won't die.

The contributing factor is not that anymore, Is when God says is time , isn't it?
But then today i was lucky i didn't yet. If had may had gone with the wind already.
In fact we are exceptionally nimble to changing enviroments.
But why is it when it come to trades, peeps get so rigid?

If peeps want talk about my personals, is ok
but keep it in the trading perspective.
Not as to get involved into it.
Its nothing to others , should just be trade lessons.
Like when i posted a few jesus's scrpitures, could hand been islam's or buddhist or or...
But people couldn't see the power and strength in there.
So they attacked and used the dirty word cult.
Some sees some will never. Do you know why?
Ok no guessing.
I tell you why.
Its their mindset, if you like, their frame of mind, their focus of thoughts.
Why does some traders see the markets turn and some peeps cannot.

nothing personal on fullperson.
like for him , hes waiting for confirmation.
so how can he capitalise when his mind is waiting for setups(rigidity) to happen.
He's wired that way , due to his training and experience or lack of.
but no one can blame him , because of his youth.
but to break away from that requres much work and re training.
Thats why is difficult teach old dogs new tricks.
Is called muscle memory.

Is not possible a trader can enter every trade correctly.
there is no such thing as correct.
Is how you manage , that determines bottom line.
sometimes is easy, sometimes is a journey thru fire and brimstone and come out flat.
Quoting fti
The contributing factor is not that anymore, Is when God says is time , isn't it?
But then today i was lucky i didn't yet. If had may had gone with the wind already.
In fact we are exceptionally nimble to changing enviroments.
But why is it when it come to trades, peeps get so rigid?
Then can I safely assume that you are not exceptionally rigid and have quit smoking?

PS - I enjoyed the song.
Happy trading day everyone. I saw this http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...nce-2011-06-13
and thought it interesting. Hope you do, too.

Let's see, this is a Monday in June, with no scheduled FAs. Typical PA for a summer Monday going on now. Why are banks in Europe closed? Is this a holiday? Good trading everyone.

fti, get some rest my friend.
thank goodness for that upstanding citizen. Goes to show that good people are everywhere. It is a culture that we must keep up, very precious.

I wish you the best
Good morning Friends!

Not trading today, cause we have a public holiday here in germany and my family has booked me already for visiting the zoo and things like that.

@fti: Glad to hear, that your guardian angel was once again at the right place at the right time! He has a "demanding" client with you, but I hope he will not retire for the next 50 years.

All the best my friend!


Niels
@fti
aiyo u not gonna die la , heart n all no big deal , soon there will be a breakthorugh in stem cells n we ll get u a new piece of heart that time
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #25,876
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:00am Jun 13, 2011 5:49am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting piccolo
Then can I safely assume that you are not exceptionally rigid and have quit smoking?

PS - I enjoyed the song.
sorry that one i rekindled again recently.
Enjoys it too much.
Not do any harm to others directly, possibly indirectly.
But on the same if they stop driving cars around especially deisel engines. I may reconsider. less enjoyment of life.
or whats left of it.
everyones hooked on something, but i have my oxygen compresssor next to me incase i over indulge.
yes muscle memory, and rigidity. I can only carry that only on trades.
And this time USD/yen, what an opportunity cost it was.


regards

ok i ned do the nap now,
the dizzy coming back.
trade well.
  • #25,877
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:34am Jun 13, 2011 9:05am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting zfm
Again, I would like to thank FTI and all the seniors for contributing to this wonderful thread. Was wondering if the ability to read chart formations critical in the dance or just watching PA is enough? If my questions sounds silly pls be patient with me as I still a fx newbie. Thanks!
Hi zfm,
i had good rest .
Woke up by evening call to prayers
done my thanks already.

In regards to your question.
No, All Charts patterns have strong probability mutate from one to and another over the time sequence.
Importantance is to be able tell between the major toppings and bottoms formation. Also reversal formations and consolidation formations.
The hardest to manage poisitions in is the assasin formation. The chartist calls that the broadening pattern.
consolidations and trend continuation patternes are very straight forward. Importance must be given to the focus of the mutating patterns, because they normally do mutate to many variations before settling on a final pattern and even then will continue mutate.
If recognise congestion distributions , must exercise good patience for proper timing of skews, otherwise end up with clustered skews.
which can be very nerve testing for the impatient or underfunded traders.

Most important things in the dance is to focus continuesly and boringly to tell tale signs which you will learn to feel over a period of observations.
There are no rules, so any levels can be attempted. Important thing is focusing on changeof feel
any thing feel wierd to you you need run for safety fast. You wait for feel to confirm and scouts and low skew all gets caught "dead in the waters".
You need spend much time watcj=hing learn their behaviour, and also sign when things are changing. Initially any thing that makes you uncomfortable you should seek safe harbour to protect book.
Over time your dancing skills must improve. Otherwise you not have the applitute as trader. There will be many mistakes made especially in the first few months of your observation training. Its from this that you will be able hone your skills that youcan begin trust and havee stronger confidence in trades. But only not be over confident and become rigid. Best is try follow the trend runs as best you can and try not trade contrarian to major trend. Over a period you should be able tell if your rythm is in sync with market. If not then new clear mind and keep trying sync with her. You can tell you had developed that market synergy by book bottom line. Try trade smallest possible and mild skews until you see book grow.
If not grow not force it, find ways to allign.

Generally is hard to describe the process, on actual hand held sessions you will learn begin get that dance rythm. Unfortunatly my condition not allow me do any of that anymore.

regards

Alternatively , if you cannot get into rythm, you may want use some SMAs guide you initially, but they are always such laggers that will hinder good traders. Always late and not profitable. But if you lucky and ride a big wave which is seldom can still hold book in black.
but because they are laggers, you will mostly be flat of P&L sometimes in the low reds until some good trends materialises. And because Good trends are only persistence over much time decay, then you may be sucked into gambling senario if need hold over nights without babysitting the positions, which is strongly discouraged.All these is repeat of what was given in the early parts of this thread.

also watch out for figs which iyou can peruse from the ff calanader of major figs reports and flash news that can suddenly swing markets.
Like i said when uncomfortable best seek safe harbour, unless you had build a nice foreign cap to defray any eventualities.

There is no short cuts, you need develope read skills while honing you skewing abilities.
focus and it should come to you over time. If it doesn't come to you then i am sorry , this is not going to be your thing.

All the things discussed in the begining of the thread you must internalise to crystalise your mindset for you carry you forward.
All these sound very simple, and it is, but if mindset is wrong or disturbed , damage can be castastropic. So never risk what you cannot afford to lose in markets.
Quoting fti
OMG, i praying to God on my knees.

Thanks him for sending an angel gentlemman saved my life, this time again.
I went to finalise my moneys trenasactions and when going to the bank nearly dropped but for a great gentleman from italy.
He came holding and hugging me up. Thanks to him i didn't fall and died there at the bank.He even sat with me until i was stable enough to be sent home.

OH great lord , thank you for sending me help at my weakest moments in life.
God is great, and heard all the prayers from my christain , muslim, buddhist and ........
May His miracles continue to be with you and may your strength and health recover steadily.

Thanks again for all you have shared and continue to share even in the midst of your struggles.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #25,879
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:59am Jun 13, 2011 9:33am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting fti
Hi zfm,
i had good rest .
Woke up by evening call to prayers
done my thanks already.

In regards to your question.
No, All Charts patterns have strong probability mutate from one to and another over the time sequence.
Importantance is to be able tell between the major toppings and bottoms formation. Also reversal formations and consolidation formations.
The hardest to manage poisitions in is the assasin formation. The chartist calls that the broadening pattern.
consolidations and trend continuation patternes are very straight forward....
Thank you so much for your detailed response fti, which i did not expect. I will take your much valued counsel to heart. Don't worry, my forays into the market are minute, and currently the protection of my capital is my chief aim until I have fully mastered the feel of the dance.

Have a good rest. I believe that your body wants to heal itself if you let it. Keep your eyes on the Lord always. As I always believe that one of the chief aims of infirmities is to take one's focus back to self. God bless

2 Corinthians 5:21

For He made Him who knew no sin to be sin for us, that we might become the righteousness of God in Him.
Quoting FX4Newbies
May His miracles continue to be with you and may your strength and health recover steadily.

Thanks again for all you have shared and continue to share even in the midst of your struggles.

FX4
Thank you FX4
God bless all the kind people who walks the earth.


regards
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