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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues 11,336 replies

I drink your milkshake 19 replies

Attachments: No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink
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No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink

Quoting joselb
Thanks a lot for the answer PeterCrowns.

I also see interesting and testing the breakout of this line trading in daily (the line placed 2 hours before London though I am testing this line when London opens too) and I agree with you about trailing stops. Many times I have only got few pips instead the whole rally. Now I am only moving the SL to breakeven when I am in a good profit (50 pips or so) and letting the trade run, even if I finally get 0 pips. But other times I get a good profit with the whole rally.
your answer is at page 23 of this thread post 335

if no ones know what is a Variance Map this will explain it http://www.statcan.ca/english/edu/po...2/variance.htm
its an easy example. So multiply this for 35 years of intarday data champions you will know.

i forget 35 years of data are quite expensive and its quite expensive to do this statistical analysis, Mr. Crowns give to us for free
But Statistics is always Statistics
Thank you very much rod30,
I think I missed that post reading all pages. Very much appreciated.
Quoting Trumpcard
PeterCrowns mentions identifying and then trading only the strongest (I presume for longs) and weakest (for shorts) markets. Do any of you guys actually do this or just take EVERY IB across the majors which occur in the first 9 hours or so? Could someone provide me another example of how to identify only the strongest and weakest markets? Thanks!
Sometimes you'll get several IB's in a session and you need to compare them. I know my account won't bear taking them all on an active session. I look at:

A) price up or down on the day (one of the first rules)
b) How far has each signalled pair moved during the session (I want the one moving the most)
c) What is the risk? (One of the most appealing aspects of this is low risk) Sometimes the Geppy bars are so long that you can't get a tight entry.
d) Since we're looking to take part off quickly, I consider the spread when comparing setups. I want to cover my risk by taking part off as quickly as possible.

If there are only a few setups I'm not quite as critical, but the more there are, the harder I compare. There are enough good setups that they don't need to be tweaked, e.g. That's almost an IB, or, I'm going long 'cuz it's almost up on the day, etc.
Quoting billflet
Sometimes you'll get several IB's in a session and you need to compare them. I know my account won't bear taking them all on an active session. I look at:

A) price up or down on the day (one of the first rules)
b) How far has each signalled pair moved during the session (I want the one moving the most)
c) What is the risk? (One of the most appealing aspects of this is low risk) Sometimes the Geppy bars are so long that you can't get a tight entry.
d) Since we're looking to take part off quickly, I consider the spread when comparing setups. I want to cover my risk by taking part off as quickly as possible.

If there are only a few setups I'm not quite as critical, but the more there are, the harder I compare. There are enough good setups that they don't need to be tweaked, e.g. That's almost an IB, or, I'm going long 'cuz it's almost up on the day, etc.
Man o' men Bill, You really are getting the hang of this Trading Concept.
{If it aint (at least Semi) guaranteed, WHY should I Risk My Family's Future? Why should I subject Myself to the possibility of HOPE &/or FEAR}

Hey Bill, Please PM me your current thoughts on your latest Trading endeavours
I may need a Mentor
Quoting joselb
Great thread!

I want to send my thanks to PeterCrown for this method, I like simple methods like this one.

My question would be:
why must we take the price 2 hours before London and not when London opens (2 hours later)?

Thanks a lot and keep on with this great thread.

Jose
Hi JoseLb, My apologies for my previous reply. It was uncalled for & contained the assumption that "Everyone Is In Tune With The Market." An age old error.
Thanks for taking the time to read the thread & I hope you can throw another Q or 2 to keep us thinking.

" My question would be:
why must we take the price 2 hours before London and not when London opens (2 hours later)"

My answer (not PC's) would be "Global Village Awareness and 'Early Bird' mentality run the roost.
thanks Billflet for all your help
  • Post #407
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:50am Jun 8, 2008 4:48am | Edited at 7:50am
No problem at all Bemac, and thank you for this great thread

I can tell you that I am not a newbie in Forex (almost 2 years yet) and I also made some time ago a free ebook to many people, trading only with trend lines, support and resistances and money management. I like simple methods like this one, I think that they work better that all those methods with lagging indicators. In fact we could only trade with support-resistances and money management, nothing more. I don´t post in this Forum a lot but I found some threads very interesting.

Quoting Bemac
Hi JoseLb, My apologies for my previous reply. It was uncalled for & contained the assumption that "Everyone Is In Tune With The Market." An age old error.
Thanks for taking the time to read the thread & I hope you can throw another Q or 2 to keep us thinking.

" My question would be:
why must we take the price 2 hours before London and not when London opens (2 hours later)"

My answer (not PC's) would be "Global Village Awareness and 'Early Bird' mentality run the roost.
PC, Bemac, et al:

6 GMT is one time to start looking for an inny.

If you couldn't trade until early morning, would 12 GMT be another good time to start looking?

BD
06GMT -is actually THE time to start if you wish to utilize this method as written here. One item that may be of help is to move to a higher time frame - say 4 hour or daily and then the time is more flexible. A discussion on the merits of using a higher time frame has begun in the other Systems/DIBS thread.

Quoting BarneyDog
PC, Bemac, et al:

6 GMT is one time to start looking for an inny.

If you couldn't trade until early morning, would 12 GMT be another good time to start looking?

BD
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
Hi Peter,
Great method for trading and definitely what I am looking to use. Just paper testing so I can make sure I fully appreciate it first. Your quote also required a fulcrum and lever but thats probably being a bit nit picky.
Regards and Best Wishes Steve

Quoting PeterCrowns
And it is only the 1st of the month.

“Give me a place to stand, and I will move the Earth.” - Archimedes (Grecian Mathematician , 280-211 BC)

This was the best DIBS trading day I've had in a month. (See Usd/Chf hourly chart below) Regardless of what it may appear, this post is not to gloat, but to show the virtually perfect DIBS trade and why you have to trade the earliest breakouts possible for the greatest possible gains.

Thank goodness I was awake and trading this morning!

While the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd both had good DIBS trades this morning, and I took them too-- my most effortless and hugely profitable trade was buying the Usd/Chf at 1.0354. Just 30 minutes into the day, the market took out the high of the previous hour's inside bar, putting me long. Because the bar was so narrow, my protective sell stop was ONLY 6 pips below my entry. Since the risk was so low I was able to multiply my size accordingly, and had 4 times the position I typically have on these trades.

It took off so quickly I didn't even drop off half of my position until 1.0499. Yes, 145 pips later and at the round number: 1.0500. (What a great problem to have!!!)

As I'm writing this the profit from the trade exceeds 25 times the risk taken. The day is not over. And the month has JUST begun.

If you look on a daily chart (also inserted below) you can see that there is a clear breakout to the upside on the Usd/Chf. Having gotten in before the breakout gives us a comfort zone, something that is rare and usually significant this early in a month.

What if this market goes up to 1.0750 or 1.1100 (66:1/125:1 return on risk) or even higher? What if this is the beginning of a serious turn in the dollar for a while?

And remember, this is just 1 trade. If this should be the beginning of a longer trend, profits on this one trade could be enormous. Other add on trades could make a huge pile by the time the trend ends.

If the trade fails, ie: gets stopped out – no problem. There will be others that will work.

If the market doesn't reverse and take out the initial trade stop, I will use the 20 period moving average (displayed) as a trailing stop. I have seen just one trade like this one provide half the year's profits for a good trader, by just following it up with a trailing stop.

Obviously, finding the low risk “place to stand” is crucial. For me, DIBS has proven to be one. It is definitely not a method to "fade".

This trade is an actual working example of how you can, with a simple but durable methodology, expect to make profits from long tails.

There are consequences for trading correctly. Exponential profits!

-PeterCrown-
I see that we start at 06:00 GMT and trade for 9 hours which takes us to 15:00 GMT. That covers the UK market but what about the USA which overlaps the UK and then goes on for several hours more. Is it worth looking at specific times for GBP and slightly different times for USD.
Regards
Steve
Two Points!

1) If it's DIBS, Post it to the correct thread. I Love it but you should, if you are serious, know your audiance.

2) Sorry for not having updated recently but I have been working on a complication which required simplification. Otherwise known as "Describe a Discretionary Trading Descision."

This is gonna take a while:

Contents:
Oscillator; Stoh, MACD or RSI {so far} Any One or any combination thereof. {Please, don't tell me about "Laggers" This is about Measuring them and using such info to Plot Potential Pricing yet to come.}

Concept:
MACD climbs 60 & Price climbs 22...
MACD falls 40 & price falls 65...
Is MACD Indicating a Trend?

If so... I should {mathematically} be able to generate a Target for the next move on MACD...

with me so far? I hope so...

See the pic.
Notice that the Dotted Horiz Line Starts Before The Price Gets there.
ie. Fore Warning.
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Hello everybody, I'm reading this topic and I'm trying to write an expert to capture the signals.

At the moment I have produced this attached expert but I see that I'm not able to write some elements of the system.
For istance, how can I consider the 5 am time instead of the previous day closign price?

I hope someone could help me to improve this system...

Thank you!
Alberto
Attached File
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Alberto_Jazz
Hello everybody, I'm reading this topic and I'm trying to write an expert to capture the signals.

At the moment I have produced this attached expert but I see that I'm not able to write some elements of the system.
For istance, how can I consider the 5 am time instead of the previous day closign price?

I hope someone could help me to improve this system...

Thank you!
Alberto

ok first shot in the dark, as i'm not at home and can't review the code

go to the DIB's thread and download the Daily open indicator, add this to the code as a custom indicator with a GMT ofset in your adjustable settings. no i don't code, but i have a little understanding of this and you can either copy the entire code into your EA or place the indicator in your indicator folder and simply refer to it.
I would like to thank you deeply for sharing your wisdom and your stories with us here on this thread. I have been entirely fascinated with the thread, and have read through it twice already. I also looked up your friends posts and found them to be equally insightful.

I hope that you will continue to visit here, and share some more of your experiences with us. I have started using your method with great success, even though you probably did not set out to teach originally, I am sure that many of us will always be in your debt for doing so.


Thank you again for all of your efforts.

G10
Enlightened.
My Meta trader set up - hourly -shows an IB and a long upon break of that bar about 1pm GMT..................am I reading the DIBS method correctly?
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Quoting turnip15
My Meta trader set up - hourly -shows an IB and a long upon break of that bar about 1pm GMT..................am I reading the DIBS method correctly?
Yep you got it
I was following this thread, and I saw that Peter said for stops, place them at the "other side" of the inside bar. I'm not sure if I'm thinking of the same thing he is. Would that be the top (for short) or bottom (for long) of the bar that comes before the inside bar?

Also, how does one determine an exit with this method?

Many thanks, sorry of these are noobish questions
Quoting Mets
I was following this thread, and I saw that Peter said for stops, place them at the "other side" of the inside bar. I'm not sure if I'm thinking of the same thing he is. Would that be the top (for short) or bottom (for long) of the bar that comes before the inside bar?

Also, how does one determine an exit with this method?

Many thanks, sorry of these are noobish questions

Take a look at this
Quoting billflet
Anybody setting up a workspaces similar to this? I leave this running at all times because I've started applying the "Up Or Down On The Day" rule to all trades--DIBS or otherwise. Buying strength and selling weakness is making a measureable difference in all my trading. This makes a real quick reference.

Cool, there goes the Geppy.
So the only line you got there is the 1EST / 12 CST open price line right?
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
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