thank you for replying, i'm going to read the articles on your site.
- #203
- May 18, 2008 1:23pm May 18, 2008 1:23pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
thank you for replying, i'm going to read the articles on your site.
You're the one that was using price distribution in Excel (similar to MarketProfile) right? There's a thread on here where a poster talks about doing that, and then about using longer range Bollinger bands in multiple timeframes. Was that you too?
- #204
- May 18, 2008 1:29pm May 18, 2008 1:29pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Hi Scott,
Great stuff there! I don't remember to have seen a link to it before in this thread. Maybe I missed it. I will read slowly as time allows. Today I took a quick glance.
Haven't you ever considered using MQL4?
The link is in my profile, but I usually don't post it anywhere unless I'm pointing someone to the research archives or an article there.
I put a note on the first post of this thread that the really good stuff starts on February 26, 2008. That's where I settled on the method I'm using now.
I've looked at MT4 but never used the EA system. (MQL4 is Meta Query Language for writing EA's right?) With the way I trade, which takes me about 5 minutes a day (not counting posting on FF
) I don't really need anything but a daily Oanda chart and an Excel spreadsheet.
- #205
- May 20, 2008 7:13pm May 20, 2008 7:13pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Climbing Peaks Gliding Valleys | 1,601 Posts
Hey Scott,
spend some hour reading through how you trade.
and how you use stop orders.
you seem to be filled at worst price often (always)
however i think you should use 2 account for this type of trading, because you simply liquidating 1st position when the 2nd entry for reverse orders present itself, while it could be seen as a new trading opportunity.
-----------
now my questions
1- how/why you come up with 250 pip ?
is there also segment of 250 pip each....
2- why add orders every 50 pip why not 70 for example.
"NOTE: THESE ARE FOR EUR/JPY ONLY. I DIDN'T LOOK AT ANY OTHERS."
a. Trending legs (HLHH or LHLL): next leg reacts by 80%
b. Pullback legs (HHHL or LLLH): next leg reacts by 110%
c. Contraction legs (LHHL or HLLH): next leg reacts by 140%
d. Expansion legs: (LLHH or HHLL): next leg reacts by 60%"
3 - Why not put a large contrarian order on those exhaustion level
spend some hour reading through how you trade.
and how you use stop orders.
you seem to be filled at worst price often (always)
however i think you should use 2 account for this type of trading, because you simply liquidating 1st position when the 2nd entry for reverse orders present itself, while it could be seen as a new trading opportunity.
-----------
now my questions
1- how/why you come up with 250 pip ?
is there also segment of 250 pip each....
2- why add orders every 50 pip why not 70 for example.
"NOTE: THESE ARE FOR EUR/JPY ONLY. I DIDN'T LOOK AT ANY OTHERS."
a. Trending legs (HLHH or LHLL): next leg reacts by 80%
b. Pullback legs (HHHL or LLLH): next leg reacts by 110%
c. Contraction legs (LHHL or HLLH): next leg reacts by 140%
d. Expansion legs: (LLHH or HHLL): next leg reacts by 60%"
3 - Why not put a large contrarian order on those exhaustion level
- #206
- May 20, 2008 10:48pm May 20, 2008 10:48pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Hey Scott,
spend some hour reading through how you trade.
and how you use stop orders.
you seem to be filled at worst price often (always)
however i think you should use 2 account for this type of trading, because you simply liquidating 1st position when the 2nd entry for reverse orders present itself, while it could be seen as a new trading opportunity.
-----------
now my questions
1- how/why you come up with 250 pip ?
is there also segment of 250 pip each....
2- why add orders every 50 pip why not 70 for example.
"NOTE: THESE ARE FOR EUR/JPY ONLY. I DIDN'T LOOK AT ANY OTHERS."
a. Trending legs (HLHH or LHLL): next leg reacts by 80%
b. Pullback legs (HHHL or LLLH): next leg reacts by 110%
c. Contraction legs (LHHL or HLLH): next leg reacts by 140%
d. Expansion legs: (LLHH or HHLL): next leg reacts by 60%"
3 - Why not put a large contrarian order on those exhaustion level
2. The 50 pip spread between orders is just easy to work with.
3. Sometimes I do end up with a very large single order right near the exhaustion level. This happens when I'm in a situation where the orders I'm placing would reduce my position (profit taking orders). In order to ensure that these are in profitable territory, I "collapse" a series of orders into one single order at a better price in profitable territory. This situation has come up a couple of times in the journal. If you can't find them, I'll go back and see if I can pinpoint the actual posts. Let me know.
- #207
- May 21, 2008 12:11am May 21, 2008 12:11am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Climbing Peaks Gliding Valleys | 1,601 Posts
I see you only did collapse the order when you are exiting your initial entry for profit.
however i am wondering why not enter the whole bulk of the order as entry order at those level
however i am wondering why not enter the whole bulk of the order as entry order at those level
- #208
- May 21, 2008 12:18am May 21, 2008 12:18am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
I see you only did collapse the order when you are exiting your initial entry for profit.
however i am wondering why not enter the whole bulk of the order as entry order at those level
So instead of trying to pick exact levels, I just use that "exhaustion level" as a guide for when to start placing orders. But I spread the orders out, putting the largest ones at the better prices. That way, some will get filled and some won't, but the net effect is to create a spread between my average buy price and my average sell price, along with an ever increasing volume of orders. Like running a store and buying wholesale and selling retail as I mentioned in another post.
- #212
- Jun 3, 2008 12:41am Jun 3, 2008 12:41am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Climbing Peaks Gliding Valleys | 1,601 Posts
Buy lower, sell higher 
- #213
- Jun 3, 2008 4:19pm Jun 3, 2008 4:19pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Well I'm not buying or selling anything at the moment. 
Here's what's happening.
1. I'm still short 68 units of the new size, from way back in post #196 about 3 weeks ago.
2. Since then, there was an upleg, but it didn't get above its exhaustion level, so I never placed any additional sell-stop orders behind that leg.
3. Today, the price just broke below the 250-pip reversal threshold, so now the upleg is over and we're in a new downleg. The upleg that just ended was a contraction leg which went from a higher low to a lower high. So that leg officially ended a 3-leg uptrend period in EUR/JPY.
4. The median reaction to a contraction leg is 140%, so the exhaustion level for this new downleg is way down at 156.25. So I won't be placing any buy-stop orders unless price moves below that level.
5. So basically, I'm still short 68 units and just waiting around.
Patience grasshoppers... 
Here's the chart:
Here's what's happening. 1. I'm still short 68 units of the new size, from way back in post #196 about 3 weeks ago.
2. Since then, there was an upleg, but it didn't get above its exhaustion level, so I never placed any additional sell-stop orders behind that leg.
3. Today, the price just broke below the 250-pip reversal threshold, so now the upleg is over and we're in a new downleg. The upleg that just ended was a contraction leg which went from a higher low to a lower high. So that leg officially ended a 3-leg uptrend period in EUR/JPY.
4. The median reaction to a contraction leg is 140%, so the exhaustion level for this new downleg is way down at 156.25. So I won't be placing any buy-stop orders unless price moves below that level.
5. So basically, I'm still short 68 units and just waiting around.
Patience grasshoppers... Here's the chart:
- #214
- Jun 3, 2008 6:49pm Jun 3, 2008 6:49pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Climbing Peaks Gliding Valleys | 1,601 Posts
Should be adding shorts then 
. the median is way down to be missed~
. the median is way down to be missed~
- #215
- Jun 4, 2008 11:32am Jun 4, 2008 11:32am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Should be adding shorts then
- #216
- Jun 4, 2008 11:49am Jun 4, 2008 11:49am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Climbing Peaks Gliding Valleys | 1,601 Posts
- #218
- Jun 5, 2008 10:39pm Jun 5, 2008 10:39pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Well today's big spike upward in EUR/JPY did two things.
First, it broke the 250 pip reversal threshold, so now the downleg is over and we have a new upleg. The downleg that just ended was a LHHL contraction leg which has a median retrace of 140%, which is where I place the exhaustion level.
The second thing it did was to break through that exhaustion level, so I'm now clear to start placing sell-stop orders below the market. I keep a 100 pip buffer from the last order, so this gave me room for 6 orders, for a total of 21 units (1+2+3+4+5+6).
Here's the situation:
First, it broke the 250 pip reversal threshold, so now the downleg is over and we have a new upleg. The downleg that just ended was a LHHL contraction leg which has a median retrace of 140%, which is where I place the exhaustion level.
The second thing it did was to break through that exhaustion level, so I'm now clear to start placing sell-stop orders below the market. I keep a 100 pip buffer from the last order, so this gave me room for 6 orders, for a total of 21 units (1+2+3+4+5+6).
Here's the situation:
- #219
- Jun 8, 2008 11:14am Jun 8, 2008 11:14am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Ugh... down 4.3% for the week. That can't be good. 
Looks like both my positions went against me at once. The NZD/USD was down a bit this week, enough in fact that I added a little more to my position. And of course the EUR/JPY surge upward has put my short position in another drawdown period.
Oh well. It's these periods in which I make the contrarian moves that set up even greater profits down the road (at least that's the theory).
Looks like both my positions went against me at once. The NZD/USD was down a bit this week, enough in fact that I added a little more to my position. And of course the EUR/JPY surge upward has put my short position in another drawdown period.
Oh well. It's these periods in which I make the contrarian moves that set up even greater profits down the road (at least that's the theory).
