DislikedHey C.. Thanks for the trend following summation.. It will be interesting to see how large the fall-out is from the FOMC..Ignored
Yep, the FOMC was a real test. I reckon Erebus summed it up most succinctly here. :-)
C
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DislikedHey C.. Thanks for the trend following summation.. It will be interesting to see how large the fall-out is from the FOMC..Ignored
DislikedIS IT TIME FOR A RECAP? Let me know if this interests you ~~ Regards CIgnored
DislikedI have designed and already profitably use a low time frame system (M15). I would really like to go through the thought proccess of a profitable trader like yourself on higher time frames like D1 which I would like to implement sometime in the future.Ignored
DislikedIS IT TIME FOR A RECAP? Guys. I have been thinking that it might be time for a recap to get everyone up to speed if you are interested in this approach. The format this recap would take would be a lengthy series of posts that discusses a single instrument and how to trade this instrument from the information that has been progressively gathered in this thread. Following that we can then discuss the technique of managing a large portfolio of instruments. It is a bit of a verbose read from Post 1 to now, so we can consolidate and summarise the technique...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Sorry, just saw this. I have read the whole thread though. YES pleaseIgnored
DislikedSummarised Extracts from "Two Centuries of Trend Following" by Y. Lemprire, C. Deremble, P. Seager, M. Potters, J. P. Bouchaud Capital Fund Management, 23 rue de lUniversit, 75007 Paris, France - 15 April 2014 We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 1800 on commodities and...Ignored
DislikedGreat article and good summary. Now that I am an expert on psychology after reading a few posts on it, LOL, it is interesting to see what parts you focused on and then the bits you highlighted in bold. Validation bias perhaps! I found section 4.4 of most interest. How something that has existed basically since data has been collected in a meaningful way in all the markets analysed can then be described as an statistically significant anomaly to me is an anomaly or oxymoron in itself.Ignored
DislikedAre markets efficient? Maybe the question should be instead are they really that inefficient. People tend to think that markets move from one equilibrium level to another equilibrium level. Fact is they are always tending towards equilibrium but never really get there. Never. It is a journey rather than a destination. Markets only really achieve an actual state of equilibrium when they are closed. Otherwise the journey is the price mechanism at work battling away trying to constantly balance opposing forces. Adam Smith called this the invisible...Ignored
DislikedHi Copernicus I came across your thread a couple of days ago and have just finished reading it. A very interesting approach to trend trading and a lot to absorb. I also would look forward to a recap and appreciate the enormous amount of work you are putting into this. I particularly like your method of defining the trend. For me the more objective/mechanical the better.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Nice take on things and I agree. The eternal movement towards fair value with overshoots and undershoots that in reality is never actually achieved as a notion of fair value (equilibrium) itself is a moving target.Ignored
DislikedHoly Moly Sis. That packed a punch. A wicked diagram. Just a quick question regarding equilibrium. Let's take equities for example and then look back at forex. With a company stock at a particular time, isn't there a theoretical fair value level based on perfect information regarding the business value of that company at that time? At a later date when say productive capacity has increased, doesn't that theoretical value increase. I may be confusing fair value with equilibrium here but my assumption was that in the perfect world there was this notion...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Im going to get a little ladydooda here. I agree with you here C except for one part, the idea that the target itself is moving. I do think the target is moving at all. Taken from a post about a little bit ago. "Price is constantly oscillating between the two forms of movement as it always tries to reach 0, which it never will because Phi. It will wind up via the female form of curving random walk movements & it will unwind because of the levy flight male, straight...Ignored
Given that this is a variant of the EDTT and only takes in-trend trades, we will henceforth call it "EDTTI"......*gasps*....I hate acronyms but this will save me some considerable writing space.
Be patient with this recap as it may take some time and a number of days to achieve, but please ask questions and provide your input as it really makes my day in being able to verbalise my thought processes and I learn as much as you all do with this process.
Ok, ready to start. ........
C