Anthony's 20 point system

Hi folks

Brief bio:

Got into Forex in Sep 2009. Began demoing in early 2010. It took me 2 years to get a coherent system together. I took J16 and made some additions. Since then, I've been concentrating on reading psychology / self-help books. I work 9-5 plus I have 3 kids under 6 in the mix so I on average trade 10 times a year all on HTFs. 2012-2013 was profitable whereas this year hasnt'. My system is 8 entry criteria, 6 psychology criteria and 6 trade management criteria.

I am here for two reasons:

1/ To get a second opinion about my approach from more experienced traders
2/ Help people who are starting out

Lets begin with a trade I have on which hasn't triggered. I keep a Journal which I update 3 times a week (even if it hasn't triggered).


EUR - AUD 17.09.14

FOR

1. 2 WK PB 100 pips +
2. PA off VBRN 1.40
3. Retrace back to Daily break zone - Option 3 = Low risk
4. Retrace back into eye of Weekly PA = High risk
5. Off weekly PPZ
6. Space
7. FTA 1.45

AGAINST

1. Weekly PA hasn't broken
2. Price may stick to 1.45 - Major PPZ and VBRN
3. May not retrace back to entry
4. Medium risk trade (Option 1 and 2 and 3 )

I have 4 pages of notes so here a few of my comments.

21.09

1. Monthly TF says its a reversal set-up
2. Selling momentum longer - term
3. Keep trade on as 1.3865 is Major PPZ
4. Big Buyers at 1.3865?
5. If price retraces back to my entry zone, question remains, will there be enough buyers / big buyers to withstand selling pressure?

25.09

1. 150 pip bear bar off 1.45
2. Tug-of-war at 1.45
3. Does buyers= sellers here?
4. Was the 150 pip sell off profit taking from in the know longs?
5. They bought at 1.4370 but sold at 1.45.

01.10

1. Tues and Wed could close as two bear days
2. Price not making new highs
3. Not enough (big buyers) around at 1.45 to shift price (Resistance at VBRN)
4. Price must move to find buyers

06.10

1. No real movement on the weekly - 200 pip range - relatively small
2. Daily shows weakness on the buyside or that price is following the path of least resistance ie down
3. No surprise resistance at 1.45
4. Monthly TF has a 2 month PB which is a good sign
5. I find playing a retrace back into the eye of a PB a high risk trade
6. This is a 2 week PA set-up but it still qualifies as back into the eye of the 2 week
7. Or, back to the break - zone of a 7 day Daily PA set-up (medium risk trade)
8. I am going to keep this on as the 2 week PA is huge and suggests there is enough upside potential

All questions welcome!

As for the trading, maybe a bit over-analyzing for just one trade? Or maybe I'm just too lazy :-)
I try to avoid the crosses. The way I see it, you need to analyze each pair of the cross. So review EU & AU for your EA trade. If EU is @ a demand zone & AU is @ supply, then look to buy EA. For shorting EA, EU would be @ supply & AU @ demand.

Nice picture. What were you hunting?
I was waiting for elk :-)

Thanks for comments SRT

I am quite picky and still consider myself a beginner so I like to write the trade out

So, following your comment I see my trade as follows

EU - approaching Demand at the 1.25-1.20 zone
AU - at Demand at the 86 zone

For my trade to have a chance, (if it triggers) Id need a Weekly Buy reaction on EU and for AU to go below the 86 zone. Is that correct?

The avatar represents my trading style, I dont actually hunt. Nice pic BTW

GBP-USD 08.10.14 Short

For

1. 2 WK PA
2. PA 100 PIP+
3. With Trend
4. Off 1.65 VBRN
5. 1.6250 PPZ broken
6. Option 3- Retrace back to break zone of PA
7. Sell limit
8. Trade has space

Against

1. Trading into VBRN 1.60
2. Not at SWH or SWL

The reason I put this on is I think there is heavy selling pressure out there that will break 1.60, even if it puts up a fight. Last weeks aggressive selling on Friday saw the big guys enter and drive the pair lower. I think they are still around, maybe waititng for weak buyers to push it up for them to resell at a higher price.

Entry: 1.6155 SL 1.6525 TP 1.53

All questions and comments welcome!

09.10.14

 

1. 1.4450 Resistance level represents a minor PPZ
2. Support at 1.4375 - small range for the past 6 days - why?
3. Are the big traders on the sidelines? - If so, why? Awaiting news
4. EU - Buy reaction from 1.25 on the weekly suggesting some strength - will this last?
5. AU - Buy reaction from 0.86 buy zone , Major PPZ and VBRN

If price fins supports at 0.86 (which is totally normal) , and the EU does likewise at 1.25 (with both ranging) Id consider taking the trade off for the time being.

09.10.14

 

1. Trade has triggered
2. First thing I noticed was the traffic from Aug - Nov 2013 - 1.59 - 1.6250 - FTA
3. Buyers here ready to defend this level
4. Watch how the week closes
5. My trade managment says I should give this thing time to breathe but Ill be extra cautious here with the FTA at 1.59
6. This thing could close as a 2 Week Buy PB off 1.60 - if todays bar closes bullishly and tomorrow kicks the ass off 1.6250 Ill take it off
7. If it doesnt get rejected off 1.6250 it means I am wrong and should get out

10.10.14

 

1. Friday high couldnt take out late Sep. high - interesting
2. Where will today close?
3. Small range over the past 3 weeks
4. More space to the South suggests thats where price will go before it takes on Resistance at 1.45
5. EU and AU at Demand
6. How will they close this week?
7. For the EU-AUD to drop Id need to see a strong AU and static / weak EU for a few days

10.10.14 GBP-USD

 

1. Bearish close Thurdsay with a retrace 100 pip PB off 1.6250
2. Friday bears meet support at 1.60
3. SL moved to BE
4. Itll go sideways or up before it goes down - I dont want to be around when it goes up
5. However, the MOnthly TF suggests 1.6250 to be the Major PPZ and the 1.59 and 1.57 levels to be Minor PPZ - that may account for the Weekly rejection of this level -
6. Does this mean previous Support at 1.6250 is now new Resistance?

14.10.14

 

1. Bearish close for last week
2. Up 225 pips
3. Sell - off today - took out last week's low
4. Is this a case of market sentiment overwhelmingly bearish or is it hat there are so few market participants on the buy side that a few significant sellers push price down?
5. What / who drives the pair?
6. Are traders waiting for Red News or are they positioning themselves ahead of it?
7. There are a few levels below me that could act as Support
8. I am pretty suspicious of trades that go my way - one retrace and I am out at BE.
9. My TP is down at 1.5250 so I am in this for the long haul - Ill not take a/thing off the table just yet - I have this habit of getting excited when up a few pips lets see if I can stick to my plan
10. Key qn: where should price go to prove price direction has changed?

14.10.14

 

1. For my long EUR-AUD to trigger I need (temporarily) for the

E-U to weaken and the
A-U to strengthen (thanks SRT)

 

1. and for my trade to be successful I need the opposite of the above to happen

Right now I have

E-U weak or static
A-U weak

 

1. However, the A-U looks more emotional at 0.86 than the E-U does at 1.26
2. I have this feeling price needs to go to 1.42 - I think there is a ton load of space for price to exploit
3. In that case my entry might be a little too low

15.10.14 GBP-USD

 

1. Big drop Tuesday
2. Immediate buy response is a retrace to 1.6050
3. This confirms that level as Old Support now New Resistance
4. Interesting + fascinating to see how emotional trading + traders become at the different levels
5. Tbh, Ive no idea where price will go
6. Current price or 1.58 could easily act as Support
7. Ill stick to my plan- keep SL at BE

15.10.14 EU-AUD

 

1. E-U getting stronger
2. EU-AUD following suit
3. A-U emotional but no upside momentum
4. Right no retrace to trigger trade unlikely but you never know

16.10.14 GBP-USD

 

1. Price got a kick from 1.5875
2. Volatility on 4hr y'day - maybe a result of news?
3. Will this trigger another phase of buyers to enter?
4. If they enter, how long will they go long for? And why?
5. Also, will they reverse the short trend?
6. If they dont reverse it, what does this tell me about the current traders?
7. Watch for PA, bar closes and how price interacts with Minor PPZs.
8. Several big bull bars are needed to signal reversal
9. But, I am open to accepting whatever the market gives me

20.10.14

 

1. Weekly Bullish PB off 1.5875
2. The nose isnt exactly protruding out from the other bars - does this suggest then that its not a genuine reversal bar?
3. Price hit 1.6150 - 5 pips from my SL and Entry. Pretty sure itll take me out at BE
4. A weekly close up at 1.6240 = a 4 Week PB
5. If we do get a 4 Week PB , it would correspond to the PPZ Sep. - Nov. 2013
6. Will I be surprised if it reverses? Definitely not
7. Will I go Long if I get a set-up that meets my System? Definitely
8. Could price drop like a stone? Yep, but all signs suggest that its going up and I gotta follow what the chart tells me

23.10.14

 

1. Out at BE
2. No reason to re-enter in either direction

23.10.14 EU-AUD

 

1. E-U is weak
2. A-U is static, going sideways with small ranges - are traders less emotional?
3. If so, why? What are they waiting for an why aren't they participating?
4. EU-AUD bearish week so far
5. Watch out if price finds/breaks/closes below 1.43 Support / Minor PPZ
6. I still believe there is a whack of space for traders to exploit below current price - maybe the weak longs have their stops there and price may go on a SL Hunt before being bought up again

USD-CHF

I put this on last Thursday so it looks like it'll trigger so I ll post my reasons why I put it on and also my analysis of today

23.10.14

Reasons for

 

1. 100 pip +
2. 3 Week PB
3. SWH
4. VBRN
5. Option 2: Price retraced back into the bar , so Ill put a Stop Sell below price as I may not check it for a few days and I may miss the boat. To be super save I sometimes wait until the level is broken then put a Sell Limit on - Option 3
6. Ton of space

​Reasons against

 

1. FTA AT 0.9230
2. COT says Non Comms are NET SHORT

​
27.10.14

 

1. No buy bars showing evidence of big players on buy side
2. Thur, Fri and today profit taking?
3. Are the people who buy now uninformed?
4. We could get a buy reaction from 0.9450 as this is the BO zone from last Wednesday and we back there for the first time
5. But, last Tuesday's bar is small compared to the big bearish PA from before
6. The close on the Weekly is bullish but weak, as is the range
7. I accept that I could be wrong, and that anything can and probably will happen, but if it triggers Ill follow my trade management rules

USD - CHF 30.10.14

 

1. Wed buy reaction not unexpected
2. 100 pip BUOB
3. Could close though as a 20 hour Bearish PB - lets see
4. What could explain the buy reaction? Could we say that this buy move was done by intra-day traders who are in and out during one session? These would be in contrary to the actual movers of the pair who are on the sidelines waiting to resume the bear move
5. SL moved to today's high - I am not paying more than that
6. Lets see

EUR - AUD
30.10.14

 

1. Price at new low since mid Sept
2. Not much support
3. Stop hunt on or price following the path of least resistance
4. Moved entry to 1.4220
5. E-U weak
6. A-U ranging with higher lows on the Daily
7. Eventually, E-U may find Support with A-U finding Resistance but before this happens I'd like price to trigger my trade

06.11.14
EUR - AUD

 

1. On my feed, low of 31.10.14 was 1.4214.
2. You'll see on my post above I'd moved my Entry to 1.4220
3. Trade should have triggered and TP hit
4. Hard done by? Yes. Angry? Also
5. But, I demo to learn about the game, my system and most importantly myself. Playing the martyr won't help
6. It didnt trigger - get over it!
7. Had I been working for a firm I would know why it didn't trigger (there weren't enough sell orders to fill ?But my position was so small, I dont accept that as an excuse)
8. Position taken off the table