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London Open Strategy

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  • Post #121
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  • Aug 5, 2014 3:59am Aug 5, 2014 3:59am
  •  orid
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 608 Posts
Quoting orid
Disliked
yes sold here tp hit +12 Orid
Ignored
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  • Post #122
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  • Aug 5, 2014 4:13am Aug 5, 2014 4:13am
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
awesome guys...... I'm the only dick that didn't take it
 
 
  • Post #123
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:19am Aug 5, 2014 4:19am
  •  Go5
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Invisible | 1,393 Posts
Well, I got in a bit late and of course out a bit early, so only 8.9 pips. Looks like it was more of a news trade (red for the GBP coming up), so just lucky I guess...
 
 
  • Post #124
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:25am Aug 5, 2014 4:25am
  •  dashisiong
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 185 Posts
I also got +11 on demo...not bad for 2 days on a row!
Patience, let the market come to you!
 
 
  • Post #125
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  • Aug 5, 2014 5:08am Aug 5, 2014 5:08am
  •  Bobcat2
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,024 Posts
Quidsey,

The 15 minute window was to much of a mess to trade for me, also.
 
 
  • Post #126
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  • Aug 5, 2014 6:44am Aug 5, 2014 6:44am
  •  orid
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 608 Posts
Quoting Bobcat2
Disliked
Quidsey, The 15 minute window was to much of a mess to trade for me, also.
Ignored
my reason for going short was that the trend was generally rising for the last 6 hour or so on the 5m before LO although quite shallow.
2 cents worth.
Regards Orid
 
 
  • Post #127
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  • Aug 5, 2014 6:44am Aug 5, 2014 6:44am
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
Quoting Go5
Disliked
Well, I got in a bit late and of course out a bit early, so only 8.9 pips. Looks like it was more of a news trade (red for the GBP coming up), so just lucky I guess...
Ignored
..... there's a bit of luck in a lot of things

wow! freakin home run today, price now coming into it's ADR zone and S3.

I got totally shafted by my own brain today, jeezzz I gotta get more monotone.

So the question remains about how do we profit from days like this when price is running away and we're on that same wave? (well some of us)

What's out there that works?

I was going to break my trade up today as I said, 2 trades and let one roll..... perfect example today of what that could add to our accounts. The roller trade has collected 4X the normal TP of 10, that's +3 wins.

Yesterday it didn't work, you'd have BE on that 2nd trade and you'd have lost a 1lot going to 1st target.

Which is statistically better?

I like the 'Partial' approach but these breakout days need to be frequent. Something to test.

I also need to be in the ruddy trade.
 
 
  • Post #128
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  • Aug 5, 2014 7:43am Aug 5, 2014 7:43am
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
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Nice overnight trend break re-test, selling into bullish momentum, even had what I trade on higher TF's an up & under right shoulder.

That's 7 straight winners for the strategy so far.
 
 
  • Post #129
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  • Aug 5, 2014 7:44am Aug 5, 2014 7:44am
  •  Mariner7
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 17 Posts
Nice thread Quidsey.

Based on previous comments I've backtested this strategy, incorporating a straddling (OCO) entry method. My parameters are:

1. Enter long 3 pips above close of 07:55-08:00 [UK time] bar OR
2. Enter short 3 pips below close of 07:55-08:00 bar
3. Cancel order if no trigger by 08:15
4. Don't trade red 8am news releases (eg flash manufacturing) or on bank holidays

So this means there'll almost always be a trade. The advantage being that it still captures big moves where price has continued along Frankfurt trend and refused to fake-out (it can happen).

Based on 7 weeks of back-testing the results are encouraging: drawdown consistently ranging from about 2 to 4 pips, and about 75% success for targets of 5-9 pips (not including spread).

I've started forward-testing as of this morning. Points on the board already.
 
 
  • Post #130
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  • Aug 5, 2014 7:48am Aug 5, 2014 7:48am
  •  orid
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 608 Posts
Quoting Quidsey
Disliked
{quote} ..... there's a bit of luck in a lot of things wow! freakin home run today, price now coming into it's ADR zone and S3. I got totally shafted by my own brain today, jeezzz I gotta get more monotone. So the question remains about how do we profit from days like this when price is running away and we're on that same wave? (well some of us) What's out there that works? I was going to break my trade up today as I said, 2 trades and let one roll..... perfect example today of what that could add to our accounts. The roller trade has collected...
Ignored
haha nevermind quidsey I lost yesterday because my pending rule
tbh im happy targeting just 10 pips a day , make lots mulla on that
 
 
  • Post #131
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  • Aug 5, 2014 10:43am Aug 5, 2014 10:43am
  •  Nednones
  • | Joined May 2014 | Status: Member | 97 Posts
I didn't get a chance to try this morning but the whole system is looking really good.

Was thinking... If a Stop Loss was placed say 10 pips from entry price and is hit, if the current past price movement shows that there's atleast a good 10-18 pip movement at that time of movement then I reckon a Pending Trade should also be placed at the Stop Loss to capture the reverse move to gain atleast 8-10pips.

Also I've just been experimenting with SQLite in MT4 which I've managed to get working so thinking of writing an indicator which takes the 15 EMA values between 07:45-08:01 London Opening, the Bid+Ask Price for all available currency pairs supplied by broker (Mines Alpari) which could be good to run one week to look at consistent pairsv during the open, e.g. work out if EMA is avergaing up/donw trend and then look at max/min price say upto 30 minutes after to confirm strategy? My intention after that is to then look at the stats to determine whether an EA would generate potential good hit rates?
 
 
  • Post #132
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:38pm Aug 5, 2014 1:38pm
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
Quoting Mariner7
Disliked
Nice thread Quidsey. Based on previous comments I've backtested this strategy, incorporating a straddling (OCO) entry method. My parameters are: 1. Enter long 3 pips above close of 07:55-08:00 [UK time] bar OR 2. Enter short 3 pips below close of 07:55-08:00 bar 3. Cancel order if no trigger by 08:15 4. Don't trade red 8am news releases (eg flash manufacturing) or on bank holidays So this means there'll almost always be a trade. The advantage being that it still captures big moves where price has continued along Frankfurt trend and refused to...
Ignored
Ahoy! welcome along.

Nice find, keep us informed of your results. Try it on Jan Feb if you can, those were not easy months as far as I can see.

I'll be honest OCO's are not personally the way I want to trade, I've been there and not had much fun, but if you can make it work that's cool.

A real mover today, hope this is the way forward.
 
 
  • Post #133
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  • Aug 5, 2014 1:59pm Aug 5, 2014 1:59pm
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
Quoting Nednones
Disliked
I didn't get a chance to try this morning but the whole system is looking really good. Was thinking... If a Stop Loss was placed say 10 pips from entry price and is hit, if the current past price movement shows that there's atleast a good 10-18 pip movement at that time of movement then I reckon a Pending Trade should also be placed at the Stop Loss to capture the reverse move to gain atleast 8-10pips. Also I've just been experimenting with SQLite in MT4 which I've managed to get working so thinking of writing an indicator which takes the 15 EMA...
Ignored
Wow pending order at the SL! like I said Ned, personally something like that would have to be automated for me, I'd get confused.

I'd really like to keep things simple so that the strategy stays focused and straightforward for people to trade. I want this to be a robust method of making money for everybody, myself included. Don't want to get on my high horse about it

Your findings on the EMA should be interesting. :nerd:
 
 
  • Post #134
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:34pm Aug 5, 2014 4:11pm | Edited 4:34pm
  •  SmoothTrader
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Perpetual Student of the Charts | 947 Posts
Quoting Quidsey
Disliked
{quote} Wow pending order at the SL! like I said Ned, personally something like that would have to be automated for me, I'd get confused. I'd really like to keep things simple so that the strategy stays focused and straightforward for people to trade. I want this to be a robust method of making money for everybody, myself included. Don't want to get on my high horse about it Your findings on the EMA should be interesting. :nerd:
Ignored
It appears as if he is using a loss management system to reduce or eliminate his losses. There are some out there that are very good and have been set-up as an EA. You can check one of them out here: http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/php...forum.php?f=81. I personally have utilized systems very similar to these for years and have begun using one "wealthmaster's ALR" just because it is automated and you can let it run without being stuck to the screen.

You are also absolutely correct in identifying this as completely separate from your system. Your system identifies trade setups for profits with an acceptable level of risk and should be used, and tested, as such. The loss management system has to be viewed, and tested, on its own merits because it has a completely different function, reducing the impact of a losing trade upon equity.

This goes back to my training. I will always try to prevent loses by utilizing trading methods that give me a good chance of consistently showing a profit, and if there is a losing trade, either take the first smallest possible loss or have management in place to reduce it under acceptable conditions. In the time that I managed floor operation for a brokerage firm this was so important with the "error" account. There had been those that turned small acceptable losses into large losses that could harm the firm because of poor management, or even destroy a bank ie Barings Bank. Rule # 1 "PRESERVE THY CAPITAL"

GREEN pips to all.
 
 
  • Post #135
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:08pm Aug 5, 2014 6:08pm
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
Thanks ST, appreciate your input. Any professional I've come into contact with over the years has always talked more about loss than profit. Totally get where you're coming from in regards to capital.

One of the things I like about the opening trade is that it often resolves itself quite quickly, that's to say, if price doesn't start moving the way we want fairly swiftly we're either in chop or we're in the wrong way. Not always the case but often. Either way there is time to look to reduce risk. As it stands at the moment we could move from -10 to -5pip or up near the candle that's gone against us.

There is also the possibility to reverse position of course. The risk is you might get it wrong twice. I'm certainly capable of over thinking a trade.

Btw what winning method/s are you using ST?, just curious

The backtesting I'm doing on the rolling trade seems very positive, there are definitely gains to be had, just need to find the best way of managing it.
 
 
  • Post #136
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:11pm Aug 5, 2014 6:11pm
  •  Quidsey
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: No longer here | 815 Posts
what happened next?

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  • Post #137
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:13pm Aug 5, 2014 6:13pm
  •  Patmontes
  • | Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Member | 395 Posts
Quoting Quidsey
Disliked
{image} Nice overnight trend break re-test, selling into bullish momentum, even had what I trade on higher TF's an up & under right shoulder. That's 7 straight winners for the strategy so far.
Ignored
I shouldn't have closed at 5 pip profit... it would have been a home run!Makes me really think twice about the 2 position style thingy. One TP and one BE plus TS 😊
 
 
  • Post #138
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:22am Aug 6, 2014 2:22am
  •  SmoothTrader
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Perpetual Student of the Charts | 947 Posts
Hello to one and all.

Just over 30 minutes to the London opening.

So far this week the markets have been good to us. Lets hope the trend continues.

GREEN pips to one and all.
 
 
  • Post #139
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:47am Aug 6, 2014 2:47am
  •  Go5
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Invisible | 1,393 Posts
If you look at how "easy" it would have have been to just wait first to get some distance to the PA and then follow along the Kijun and then the inside Kumo: 50 Pips...
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All the best pips to you all
 
 
  • Post #140
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:00am Aug 6, 2014 3:00am
  •  mwsteiner
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Member | 354 Posts
G Mornig all,

long today with SL on spike @ 1.3347?
 
 
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