Disliked{quote} Since you shared a GBPNZD chart how about a test entry I took before work this AM. C hart one zoomed in and was the chart I snapped around 40 minutes after I took the trade (then I went to get ready for work). Came back to check and I had hit 1.5:1 so I closed part 1 and left part 2 to run. Price never came anywhere near my entry so left the trade to run during the day. At the days low just shy of 14:1 was the move from enrty. How many of those do you need in a week to make a nice return? There were a few higher entries after LO but I didn't...Ignored
The question is I guess how can we catch these odd runners against the higher probability that they won't actually run so theres only a handful of pips available??
I think your idea of taking profits on half and letting the other half run is maybe the answer. Each new entry bank half hold half and trail the stops on the holding trades until trend ends and trades close out as last LH or HL taken out.The only trouble I have with this is that I've seen so many trades come back and take me out for BE its untrue, the pullbacks on 1 mins are generally about 85% so unless you get in right at the bottom of the pullback your entry is unavoidably going to get hit and taken out at BE.
The only thing I will say is if its a strong trend then the pullbacks are generally much smaller say 50% then our holding trades at BE have got a chance of surviving. We could measure the steepness of the 100lwma slope and say 30 plus reading on the top trender is a strong trend so try the holding strategy, however anything less just keep banking every momentum run with no holding trades.
Basically if we can identify a strong trend with 50% pullbacks then hold and trail our stops down each time we load. However if we identify a weak trend 85% plus pullbacks just fully bank on every momentum push.
Just my thoughts, but is it easy to mange psychologically??? I don't know, have to try I guess and see how it goes.Other than that I would say just treat every trade as a one off and fully bank every momentum move. No arguments then just take your profit as you go.
Just had a quick thought to add to this post, can we identify or rather anticipate a large or small pullback before they happen?? For instance if the momentum move clears the previous push by say 10 pips then the trend is strong hold the whole position as expecting a smaller pullback which won't threaten our entry. However if trade struggles to clear last push point B then bank the whole trade , there and then as can expect a large pullback. Would need to study the characteristics of these larger runs to see if we can identify them some how??
Difficult to say for sure but just did a quick visual and I would say yes we might see a few characteristics that we could recognise on these longer runs, for instance, bounces off of the 100sma seem to push away quite hard with a relatively small pullback. Also if push goes past point B then definately best to hold whole position as now we've got a strong trend plus point B as extra resistance/support to protect our BE stops.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!