Yes the market moves by the "Big Boys", and yes they have their "little surprises", but when one economy is doing well and the other poorly, the suprises will tend ultimately to favor the economy doing well.
This effect is not very big however: It is like a coin that is weighted to fall heads 6 times out 10 instead of 5. The coin can still fall tails 30 times in a row. ( not as likely but still possible).
Unlike most coin tosses, the forex coin frequently bounces and spirals down to a rest before heads or tails is called, and sometimes you can see the head and get in your bet before it is.
Past history can give a feel for which way the coin is weighted -- or you could just have experienced one of those periods where the coin deviated from its mean probablity.
Or you can get lucky with a series of winning trades that grow your equity.
The smart thing to do, whether it is because you made the right calls, or got lucky (or both) is to set up your trading so that you don't give it all back with the streak of bad luck that is surely coming.
I notice that in previous posts ( by people I follow and listen to carefully) the losing trader follows some sort of Martingale technique:
By that I mean that the risks keep growing as a percentage of equity, while nothing is actually being booked to increase equity.
In an anti Martingale technique, the more money you have, the less of it you risk as a percentage of equity.
You should never add to a trade when the losses are increasing, only when the price is going your way.
If you have traded your way to an increase, you just keep part of that increase in reserve.
They call that "Playing with the company money".
You should get to that state as quickly as possible. And if you can stay there, (largely by risking a lower percentage of your equity)
you can survive the random vicissitudes of market movement and be able to benefit from its movement when it moves in your favor.
Let me put it this way: As your account grows, you should arrange things so that the margin level grows along with it.
The question is how often can I correctly see the movement of the market and run with it?
I find that there are hours and hours where I should not be making any entries, and missing a few entries that would have been good is better than making a bad entry.
You watch the market action for while, and figure various reasons why ( no, you cannot get them all, even the big boys do not get them all), You should be able to improve on the odds of guessing a coin toss.
After that it is a matter of "playing with company money" and keep your own money on the side.
This effect is not very big however: It is like a coin that is weighted to fall heads 6 times out 10 instead of 5. The coin can still fall tails 30 times in a row. ( not as likely but still possible).
Unlike most coin tosses, the forex coin frequently bounces and spirals down to a rest before heads or tails is called, and sometimes you can see the head and get in your bet before it is.
Past history can give a feel for which way the coin is weighted -- or you could just have experienced one of those periods where the coin deviated from its mean probablity.
Or you can get lucky with a series of winning trades that grow your equity.
The smart thing to do, whether it is because you made the right calls, or got lucky (or both) is to set up your trading so that you don't give it all back with the streak of bad luck that is surely coming.
I notice that in previous posts ( by people I follow and listen to carefully) the losing trader follows some sort of Martingale technique:
By that I mean that the risks keep growing as a percentage of equity, while nothing is actually being booked to increase equity.
In an anti Martingale technique, the more money you have, the less of it you risk as a percentage of equity.
You should never add to a trade when the losses are increasing, only when the price is going your way.
If you have traded your way to an increase, you just keep part of that increase in reserve.
They call that "Playing with the company money".
You should get to that state as quickly as possible. And if you can stay there, (largely by risking a lower percentage of your equity)
you can survive the random vicissitudes of market movement and be able to benefit from its movement when it moves in your favor.
Let me put it this way: As your account grows, you should arrange things so that the margin level grows along with it.
The question is how often can I correctly see the movement of the market and run with it?
I find that there are hours and hours where I should not be making any entries, and missing a few entries that would have been good is better than making a bad entry.
You watch the market action for while, and figure various reasons why ( no, you cannot get them all, even the big boys do not get them all), You should be able to improve on the odds of guessing a coin toss.
After that it is a matter of "playing with company money" and keep your own money on the side.