ETMA_The Evolution

The Turtle Traders Playlist :

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL...yDSZk547H2DFpR

One More time from the living legend .

https://meyersanalytics.com/

Double bottom reentry on support, still waiting to see where it goes, no more hype on reddit (couldn't care less but playing out of boredom) .

Best Stock Tips

Jesse Livermore learned about the best stock tips the hard way.

Having learned his lesson, he enjoyed discussing how their willingness to take stock tips had hit other traders in their pockets.

In this excerpt from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, ‘Larry Livingston’ (aka Jesse Livermore) tells the tale of Walker, Hood and the Atlantic & Southern tips:

But the prize tip story of my collection concerns one of the most popular members of the New York Stock Exchange, J. T. Hood. One day another floor trader, Bert Walker, told him that he had done a good turn to a prominent director of the Atlantic & Southern. In return the grateful insider told him to buy all the A. & S. he could carry.

The directors were going to do something that would put the stock up at least twenty-five points. All the directors were not in the deal, but the majority would be sure to vote as wanted.

Bert Walker concluded that the dividend rate was going to be raised. He told his friend Hood and they each bought a couple of thousand shares of A. & S. The stock was very weak, before and after they bought, but Hood said that was obviously intended to facilitate accumulation by the inside clique, headed by Bert’s grateful friend.

On the following Thursday, after the market closed, the directors of the Atlantic & Southern met and passed the dividend. The stock broke six points in the first six minutes of trading Friday morning.

Bert Walker was sore as a pup. He called on the grateful director, who was broken-hearted about it and very penitent. He said that he had forgotten that he had told Walker to buy. That was the reason he had neglected to call him up to tell him of a change in the plans of the dominant faction in the board. The remorseful director was so anxious to make up that he gave Bert another tip. He kindly explained that a couple of his colleagues wanted to get cheap stock and against his judgment resorted to coarse work.

He had to yield to win their votes. But now that they all had accumulated their full lines there was nothing to stop the advance. It was a double, riveted, lead-pipe cinch to buy A. & S. now.

Bert not only forgave him but shook hands warmly with the high financier. Naturally he hastened to find his friend and fellow-victim, Hood, to impart the glad tidings to him.

They were going to make a killing. The stock had been tipped for a rise before and they bought. But now it was fifteen points lower. That made it a cinch. So they bought five thousand shares, joint account.

As if they had rung a bell to start it, the stock broke badly on what quite obviously was inside selling. Two specialists cheerfully confirmed the suspicion. Hood sold out their five thousand shares. When he got through Bert Walker said to him, “If that blankety blank blanker hadn’t gone to Florida day before yesterday I’d lick the stuffing out of him.

Yes, I would. But you come with me.”
“Where to?” asked Hood.

“To the telegraph office. I want to send that skunk a telegram that he’ll never forget. Come on.”
Hood went on. Bert led the way to the telegraph office. There, carried away by his feelings they had taken quite a loss on the five thousand shares he composed a masterpiece of vituperation. He read it to Hood and finished, “That will come pretty near to showing him what I think of him.”

He was about to slide it toward the waiting clerk when Hood said, “Hold on, Bert!”
“What’s the matter?”
“I wouldn’t send it,” advised Hood earnestly.

“Why not?” snapped Bert.
“It will make him sore as the dickens.”

“That’s what we want, isn’t it?” said Bert, looking at Hood in surprise. But Hood shook his head disapprovingly and said in all seriousness,

“We’ll never get another tip from him if you send that telegram!”

A professional trader actually said that. Now what’s the use of talking about sucker tip-takers?

Talking about suckers tip-takers, in this case reddit, it clearly proves how much these markets are manipulated and the new playground is social-media which got no regulations on these matters whatsoever .

in conclusion the skillz trades failed, after so much hype on reddit it didn't follow through, that lead us straight back to relearn and learn to focus all our energy and time in doing our own research and following our own well back and forward tested modules .

Cheers .

Crossroads .

All-Seasons Trading System Portfolio - Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy-the story

Some Latest Charts

How I Built The Best Trading Algorithm - Jim Simons

Permanent Portfolio Strategy | Low Risk And Easy To Maintain | Does It Really Work?

Highway to hell .

Speak of the devil, could it be turning tides ??

When the trending gods are on your side .

The Gods of the Trends are shorting the Dow .

Is the S&P Leading or lagging the Indices, and a new all time high in the Nasdaq (Candle didn't close yet for the day) .

September 7, 2020/Market Studies/ By David Bergstrom

A Strategy For Each Day of the Week [Seriously?]


A different strategy for each day of the week? Sounds crazy, but is it?
I have written about “Turnaround Tuesday” before.

This simple strategy is actually at new highs since this was published over 10 months ago!

But what about other markets? Is it possible to just trade one market per day of the week (from open to next day’s open) on a specific day of the week and still do well? If you would have followed this simple “portfolio” below for the past 15+ years then yes... you would have.
You wouldn’t even have to sit in front of the screens like the rest of us degenerates.

Strategy 1: Short Crude Oil on Mondays

Simple strategy dating back to 2003. Short Oil on Monday’s open and cover on Tuesday’s open. Results based on a 1 lot.
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c.../CL_Monday.png

Strategy 2: Turn Around Tuesday

If Monday was a down day (Monday’s close less than or equal to Monday’s open) then buy Tuesday’s open and sell on Wednesday’s open. Results based on 1 lot.
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...undTuesday.png

Strategy 3: Long Gold on Friday's. Weekend Risk.

Maybe in lieu or anticipation of bad weekend news releases, buying Gold on Friday’s open and holding over the weekend to exit on Monday’s open has produced the following based on 1 lot.
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c.../GC_Friday.png

Not a bad portfolio equity curve, right?! One of the hidden ‘holy grails’ in trading is combining systems together to smooth the equity growth of the account. No single super star out of any of these three strategies but combined their curve starts to look rather nice.

https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c.../Portfolio.png
Sure these might not be alpha generators on their own but they may be combined with some other price patterns, filters, or targets and stops to become full strategies. They can certainly act as intermarket or multi-time frame filters for more complicated strategies.

For example, if you have a 60-minute mean reverting system that buys oil dips then maybe it should be turned OFF on Mondays! At the very least it is worth a look and this is all made very simple with Build Alpha – just point, click, test.
For example, did you know S&P500 has performed much better on even days than odd days? (April 6 is an even day).

https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c.../EvenVsOdd.png

Anyway, I just wanted to show some simple things that can be tested in Build Alpha and how sometimes the most simple ideas turn out to work the longest. Maybe because people think they’re too simple and that they can’t work? I don’t know.

Either way I have put some python code (and TradeStation code) in the private Build Alpha users’ forum to specify day of the week as I know a lot of you are trying to learn python so I figured I’d help out a bit. But day of week is all point and click options pre-built into Build Alpha’s signal library for those of you who could care less about learning to code.

--by David Bergstrom from Build Alpha

Tradestation Code :

// @CL Easy Language example
if dayofweek(date of tomorrow) = Monday then sellshort 1 contract next bar open;
if marketposition = -1 and barssinceentry >= 0 then buytocover all contracts next bar open;

The Final 3 Strategies Portfolio

August 16, 2021/ Market Studies/ By David Bergstrom

Three Trading “Truths” Quantified

I want to discuss three trading “truths” that I often hear but when I finally got into testing ideas found them to be myths. These discoveries were instrumental in turning my trading around.

For those that know my story, it was not all roses and rainbows – what trading story is?!? I actually “learned” about a lot of traders from online sources, chat rooms, webinars, and eventually found the right circles to roam in after a LOT of trial and error. I was then lucky enough to land a job with a high frequency trading firm. I was quickly made to realize that much of what I thought trading “was” was most certainly false.

In an attempt to show me the light, a few of the quick trading axioms they wanted to disprove to me were simple “well known” trading ideas that have been around for years but were in fact large falsehoods. I quickly realized beyond this list of three examples that there must have been many, many more “trading truths” that were causing harm to my account and doing my trading aspirations a disservice.

I then realized the value in testing everything and quantifying my entire approach. It wasn’t until this point in my journey did I get out of the “rat race” of trading… the ups and downs, the barely consistent, always doing slightly better but not really getting anywhere trading most of the traders I meet today are going through.

I cannot stress the importance of testing everything and quantifying your edge. Investigate these trading axioms. Otherwise you will be stuck in randomness until your account walks to 0. For more on my journey check out this podcast I did, chatwithtraders.com/103. Below you will find my three favorite trading “truths” quantified.

Trading “Truth” #1 - Bearish Engulfing Candle

This one is great because many are familiar with Japanese candle stick patterns and the name implies such a negative move in price that one cannot help but to shift their bias to the downside. These candlestick patterns are often traders' first introduction to technical analysis.

The pattern is defined as a bearish candle that “engulfs” the range of the previous day. I also like to look for a negative close and preferably a close below the previous session’s low. Here are a few pictures of bearish engulfing candles.
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...hEngulfing.png
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...Engulfing2.png

The truth is that this pattern has been one of the most bullish (not bearish) 1-day signals for the SP500 over the past 15+ years. Did you know that the day following a bearish engulfing candle actually closes higher than 61.72% of the time in the SP500 futures and 65.33% of the time in SPY ETF? The day following a bullish engulfing candle only closes higher than 54.05% of the time in the SP500 futures and 51.70% of the time in SPY. You tell me why they’re named how they are!

Trading Truth #2 – Above a moving average is bullish and below is bearish

Most of the time this is true but it depends on the moving average, moving average length, and the market. I recently came across a few blogs that mentioned using a short term moving average as a sign to exit long market exposure and wait for sunnier days. In reality, this sounds great; however, analyzing the data this can be an extremely misleading “truth”.

Below is a chart plotting the equity curve if you would buy every close when the SP500 is BELOW the 8-period simple moving average (8SMA) and sell the next bar (repeating until above 8SMA). The second chart is if you were to buy every close when the SP500 is ABOVE the 8SMA and exit the next bar (repeating until below 8SMA). Yes, being below this moving average is actually better for long returns.

https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...lowVsAbove.png

Of course this is not true for all markets and moving averages, as mentioned. I pointed this out in another post on SeeItMarket where I dissected popular stocks and different moving average lengths here: https://www.seeitmarket.com/testing-moving-averages-popular-stocks-etfs-16809.

The point is that these trading truths like “above a moving average is bullish” and “below a moving average is bearish” need to be quantified and tested. It is important to stop thinking trading truths can be generalized to every market, timeframe, indicator value, etc. and just verify them yourself and you’ll be much better off!

Trading Truth #3 – Overnight Exposure is Risky

Sure earnings announcements and large unexpected news announcements typically happen after market close. Does this mean we should avoid trading overnight, if possible? So many want to day trade and be flat on the close that they miss a lot of gains from the overnight session (sometimes all of them).

Below you will see 30 top stocks where I breakdown their returns in the day session compared to the overnight session. The blue line signifies if you bought the open and sold the close the same day (day session), and the orange line signifies buying the close and selling on the next day’s open (simulating overnight exposure). As expected, there are no generalities in trading truths. Some stocks exhibit that most, if not all, returns come from the overnight.
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...vernights2.png
https://easylanguagemastery.com/wp-c...vernights2.png

In conclusion

Not all trading truths are “truths”. There are many that still have value! The edge is not in these truths but in determining the difference between a truth and a “truth”. Most do not take the effort to investigate these trading axioms found in trading books, blog sites, chat rooms, etc. If I have one goal then it is to make traders realize the value in testing everything – it is something I wish I would have started earlier. It is a super power to quickly test these ideas and trade/act accordingly!

I think many traders shy away from digging into the data because it requires effort and they think it will be a hard and arduous journey before they find some gold. But now I think it is increasingly easier than many may think.

That’s why Build Alpha’s main goal was (and still is) to make this type of testing easier for those with no programming skills or those tired of crunching endlessly in excel. The game is changing and things like this can be easily tested now.

Today, trading just comes down to those who will put in the work and who won’t: this should greatly increase your odds for success if you’re part of the former group.

--By David Bergstrom from blog Buildalpha