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  • Post #41
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  • Sep 25, 2007 7:43pm Sep 25, 2007 7:43pm
  •  Bemac
  • Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Monarch o' the Glen | 5,561 Posts
Quoting clockwork71
Disliked
$2,000 starting account balance
2% every week
do this for 10 years = $51 million and some change...
skip

Sorry - just did it on a spreadsheet, its 59 million......or 98,000 USD after taxes.

Clockwork
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #42
  • Quote
  • Oct 3, 2007 10:25pm Oct 3, 2007 10:25pm
  •  hilmy83
  • Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Do NOT tilt | 5,708 Posts
after one year of profitable trading, i think i can offer some insights to people who are starting out. These are the steps I have taken last year to come out with my system

1. When creating a system, work from a top down approach. Look at the monthly chart down to daily chart. OPEN YOUR EYES. What do you see??

2. focus on trading concepts that we all know to be true. Buy low sell high, S&R, fear and greed. You'd be surprised what you will find out how these relate to price action

3. do not be overly detailed. Allow your system to be have some degrees of freedom. This will enable your system to handle most market conditions

4. Don't worry about how big your s/l's are. Instead focus on price action and let that decide whre to put a stop loss. 200 pip s/l is sometimes better than a 50 s/l if it supported by price action. And don't forget to use money management!

5. Breakeven is your best friend!

6. Preserve capital BEFORE increasing capital

7. Just as compounding is good on your account, adding positions has the same effect

8. Price action! it is king of all technical analysis. Learn it!

9. Learn to trade as a business owner. Take losses with dignity and treat winners with humility

10. There's ALWAYS another trade...
Working towards CME membership
 
 
  • Post #43
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  • Oct 4, 2007 8:36am Oct 4, 2007 8:36am
  •  clockwork71
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 7,584 Posts
Quoting hilmy83
Disliked
after one year of profitable trading, i think i can offer some insights to people who are starting out. These are the steps I have taken last year to come out with my system

1. When creating a system, work from a top down approach. Look at the monthly chart down to daily chart. OPEN YOUR EYES. What do you see??

2. focus on trading concepts that we all know to be true. Buy low sell high, S&R, fear and greed. You'd be surprised what you will find out how these relate to price action

3. do not be overly detailed. Allow your system to be have some degrees of freedom. This will enable your system to handle most market conditions

4. Don't worry about how big your s/l's are. Instead focus on price action and let that decide whre to put a stop loss. 200 pip s/l is sometimes better than a 50 s/l if it supported by price action. And don't forget to use money management!

5. Breakeven is your best friend!

6. Preserve capital BEFORE increasing capital

7. Just as compounding is good on your account, adding positions has the same effect

8. Price action! it is king of all technical analysis. Learn it!

9. Learn to trade as a business owner. Take losses with dignity and treat winners with humility

10. There's ALWAYS another trade...
Ignored

This is a great post.
 
 
  • Post #44
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  • Oct 4, 2007 10:37am Oct 4, 2007 10:37am
  •  billflet
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: It's all just noise. | 1,681 Posts
[quote=clockwork71;1611433

Sorry - just did it on a spreadsheet, its 59 million......or 98,000 USD after taxes.

Clockwork[/quote]

The IRS has been sensitive to our need for a simpler tax form and they came up with this:



New EZ Federal Withholding


Line 1. How much did you make this year?


Line 2. Send it in.

 
 
  • Post #45
  • Quote
  • Oct 5, 2007 7:44am Oct 5, 2007 7:44am
  •  clockwork71
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2007 | 7,584 Posts
Quoting billflet
Disliked
The IRS has been sensitive to our need for a simpler tax form and they came up with this:



New EZ Federal Withholding


Line 1. How much did you make this year?


Line 2. Send it in.

Ignored
 
 
  • Post #46
  • Quote
  • Oct 7, 2007 3:41am Oct 7, 2007 3:41am
  •  doremi
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Good Listener | 231 Posts
Hi Peter,

You've got a very nice thread for newbies to learn. The problem with most newbies (including me) for the first month is "to sit at the computer for hours trying to catch every move fearing to even missed one" which indeed "the whole exercise is tiresome, and, at times, frustrating".(in brackets are your quote that I borrowed). Hence sometimes even skip our lunch or even dinner and stayed until midnight to catch "GREEN PIPS" which usually got burnt instead. Newbies usually forgot "There's ALWAYS another trade...quoted by Hilmy83)".

I would recommend all newbies to read through your thread to better equipped ourselves. I wish to learn to trade on a longer frames and would like come to your for advice....if you don't mind.

Keep up the good work and your dedication to this thread.
 
 
  • Post #47
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  • Oct 7, 2007 3:54am Oct 7, 2007 3:54am
  •  PeterFM
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Quoting doremi
Disliked
Hi Peter,

You've got a very nice thread for newbies to learn. The problem with most newbies (including me) for the first month is "to sit at the computer for hours trying to catch every move fearing to even missed one" which indeed "the whole exercise is tiresome, and, at times, frustrating".(in brackets are your quote that I borrowed). Hence sometimes even skip our lunch or even dinner and stayed until midnight to catch "GREEN PIPS" which usually got burnt instead. Newbies usually forgot "There's ALWAYS another trade...quoted by Hilmy83)".

I would recommend all newbies to read through your thread to better equipped ourselves. I wish to learn to trade on a longer frames and would like come to your for advice....if you don't mind.

Keep up the good work and your dedication to this thread.
Ignored
That's what we're here for.
 
 
  • Post #48
  • Quote
  • Oct 7, 2007 6:41am Oct 7, 2007 6:41am
  •  doremi
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Good Listener | 231 Posts
Hi Peter,

I started trading in June and all this while only exposed to technical indicators only. I don't have any fundamental background at all. And being a noobs in this respect, I wish to ask you how the rise or fall of GBP/JPY will affect both Great Britain and Japan. I don't think both Goverments & Bankers will tolerate GJ @ 350 level and neither is [email protected] level. What levels do you think will benefit both countries?
 
 
  • Post #49
  • Quote
  • Oct 18, 2007 8:44am Oct 18, 2007 8:44am
  •  tradingcube
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 31 Posts
Hi everyone,
I'm currently working on my trading plan and my biggest issue would seem to be my exit strategy. My trading is based on price action and following the trend, I normally look to hold positions for days rather than hours and in my demoing I’m can make decent gains (let the winners run) but am then having problems getting out of the trade with out letting them run too far back and either going back to break even, a loss or smaller profits. It sounds mad when I read it back… how can you make a decent profit turn into a loss but I’m trying to work on the principles of trend following where you’re going for the big wins to offset the small losses.

I’m thinking now of setting 'take profits' at twice the stop, so my stops are never more than 1% of my risk capitol so setting my 'take profit' at 2%
really struggling on this aspect, any tips?

BTW, great posts both here an on PeterFM original post!
 
 
  • Post #50
  • Quote
  • Oct 18, 2007 9:17am Oct 18, 2007 9:17am
  •  PeterFM
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Quoting doremi
Disliked
Hi Peter,

I started trading in June and all this while only exposed to technical indicators only. I don't have any fundamental background at all. And being a noobs in this respect, I wish to ask you how the rise or fall of GBP/JPY will affect both Great Britain and Japan. I don't think both Goverments & Bankers will tolerate GJ @ 350 level and neither is [email protected] level. What levels do you think will benefit both countries?
Ignored
I missed this but you're asking the wrong guy. Fundies are over my head, let alone trying to guess what Governments have got up their sleeves. I trade what I see, or try to.
There are better threads to explore these subjects, and the News guys can give you a better insight into these questions.
 
 
  • Post #51
  • Quote
  • Oct 18, 2007 9:34am Oct 18, 2007 9:34am
  •  PeterFM
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Quoting tradingcube
Disliked
Hi everyone,
I'm currently working on my trading plan and my biggest issue would seem to be my exit strategy. My trading is based on price action and following the trend, I normally look to hold positions for days rather than hours and in my demoing I’m can make decent gains (let the winners run) but am then having problems getting out of the trade with out letting them run too far back and either going back to break even, a loss or smaller profits. It sounds mad when I read it back… how can you make a decent profit turn into a loss but I’m trying to work on the principles of trend following where you’re going for the big wins to offset the small losses.

I’m thinking now of setting 'take profits' at twice the stop, so my stops are never more than 1% of my risk capitol so setting my 'take profit' at 2%
really struggling on this aspect, any tips?

BTW, great posts both here an on PeterFM original post!
Ignored
The simple answer would be that if you use PA on entries, why not use it for exits. Easier said than done, but it's a starting point.
I'm focusing on Support and Resistance levels in my day to day trading and keep these levels in mind for profit areas. Fine if a pair is below an historical high point and you're long. Where this can't help is where a pair is at historical extremes. Then I tend to use Fib Expansions based on the TF you prefer. For me that's 4hr charts minimum.

On the chart below if you played the pullback to the upper green line there was a previous high you could have used, but for the sake of argument I've drawn the Fib Exp to set a target. In hindsight you could also have used the value of the previous range (approx 150 pips) to set as potential TP.

Just some thoughts. Generally if I have a set target, I tend to bring Trailing Stops in to play if we're close but showing signs of maybe not making it. Again it's a gut feeling, sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong, but overall it keeps me on the right side. Others who have stricter rules may argue with me, but I do what's right for me.
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #52
  • Quote
  • Oct 18, 2007 9:53am Oct 18, 2007 9:53am
  •  tradingcube
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 31 Posts
thanks for the input... I guess its all down to finding a way of filtering out what is just the general noise and what is a reversal of a trend.
Do you ever use rsi to base exits on?
 
 
  • Post #53
  • Quote
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:41am Oct 18, 2007 10:41am
  •  PeterFM
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Quoting tradingcube
Disliked
thanks for the input... I guess its all down to finding a way of filtering out what is just the general noise and what is a reversal of a trend.
Do you ever use rsi to base exits on?
Ignored
I use no indicators, although they've all been on my charts at one time or another.

I find it easier to assess what's going on with a plain chart and S/R lines. It took some cold turkey to get here but the sooner you start the sooner you'll arrive at the same conclusion. That's not to say you can't trade with 'em but I never found any combination that really worked for me. There are guys around who do well. Search for Fozzy, BeachBum has a method he's got sorted so here's a link http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=47281
 
 
  • Post #54
  • Quote
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:25pm Oct 22, 2007 2:25pm
  •  Mary Pippins
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: London | 187 Posts
Quoting tradingcube
Disliked
Hi everyone,
I'm currently working on my trading plan and my biggest issue would seem to be my exit strategy. My trading is based on price action and following the trend, I normally look to hold positions for days rather than hours and in my demoing I’m can make decent gains (let the winners run) but am then having problems getting out of the trade with out letting them run too far back and either going back to break even, a loss or smaller profits. It sounds mad when I read it back… how can you make a decent profit turn into a loss but I’m trying to work on the principles of trend following where you’re going for the big wins to offset the small losses.

I’m thinking now of setting 'take profits' at twice the stop, so my stops are never more than 1% of my risk capitol so setting my 'take profit' at 2%
really struggling on this aspect, any tips?

BTW, great posts both here an on PeterFM original post!
Ignored


I have experienced/experiencing the same difficulty. It just hurts when a profitable position turns red and then hits the S/L...aarrrgghhh !

I will try and share my view on it though I gotta say that I am a noob myself, so thats just me talking here.

In any event this "exiting problem" strikes me as a mental challenge, because every time the moment comes to set an S/L or liquidate a position those thoughts creep up and are telling me with a sweet voice: "Why dont you place the S/L a little further away OR leave it open it might turn around, imagine all those extra pips you'd have. Wouldn't that be nice?"

Well, now that my S/Ls have been slapped left, right and center by listening to that voice I came to the conclusion that the price actually does not hear this voice in my head let alone obeys to it.
This voice is obviously my desire or emotional side (that's just a little explanation for all those who think I went bonkers) and skewes my rational view on what I see happening on the charts.

Part of the problem is for me that I wish to squeeze every little pip out of my postion, exiting at the exact price level where it starts to reverse on my position, so that I can clench my fist and laugh at the market saying: "Haha, I got them all" , almost like a geeky toy collector.

It is not possible for me to kill off my emotions and I dont think I should even try it.
But this is how I try to make things work for myself:

I know the signs of my system and wait for them to come pass.
Sounds easy, but I was surprised in hindsight how often I would not stick to my system and enter a partly promising position supplemented by the feeling that I'd miss out.

I document my trades !
I read this advice at the very beginning of my trading but never took heed. I wish I did because ever since I feel some serious acceleration on my skill development.
The one best single thing that is improving my trading tremendously.
There is no better way spot my own inefficiencys since it allows for a rational bird eye view on my own actions and my own patterns and reflect on them.
(I create a screen shot with an entered position and a comment)


I have accepted my losses before I entered !
I try and live with the thought that it is a viable possibility
that my S/L gets hit.

I set my target
This one is tricky sometimes but I set my target in line with my system (Price Action, S/R, Fibbo and MAs) and try to be happy when it gets hit and not think about the extra pips I could have made if I set my target further away.

The worst thing is NOT not making money
It's actually losing money thats why I often set my S/L to break even once there's enough headway. If it goes bad it doesnt matter because I haven't lost anything and there are loads more trades out there.

Another scenario is that the price has not quite reached my target but became undecided in terms of further direction, then I lock in some profit at a price level of which I think it would not be touched should things pan out well for me.
If it goes bad I try not to cry over the pips I could have had, had I liquidated the position instead of moving my S/L at the time.
Only the geeky toy collector feels sorry that he didnt have'em all.

Well, thats that from me hope there's something in it for you but as I said I'm a noob myself and God knows how many more slapping my S/Ls will receive, but its all part of the process.

Enjoy in the meantime & happy pipping
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
 
 
  • Post #55
  • Quote
  • Oct 24, 2007 1:48pm Oct 24, 2007 1:48pm
  •  leis
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Member | 64 Posts
Hi PeterFM
Many thanks for your very informative threads - must have taken ages to compile. Sound advice re trading of longer timeframes, go with the trend, don't try and catch every trade or pip, remove bells and whistles/ indicators.It's all much clearer - now to implement.........!
 
 
  • Post #56
  • Quote
  • Oct 26, 2007 5:03am Oct 26, 2007 5:03am
  •  Arnoldchidi
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 24 Posts
Quoting PeterFM
Disliked
Help for Newbies. What can you learn on Forex Factory? I'm creating this thread to give Forex newbies an insight into how they can either start making their accounts grow steadily, or, hopefully, recover from earlier disasters in their first forays into live trading. This thread is based on my 18 months’ experience, and tells how my journey has been. Others' experiences will have been different. All the thoughts outlined here are the culmination of information absorbed from this Forum, from people for whom I have developed a great respect.

As I will keep the main thread closed while I finish each new post, please post your comments here.

Thank you
Ignored
Let me start by saying a BIG thanks for for all that you laboured to post for newbies like me in FF, and also much more.You made mention of the use of 365 EMA. How and where do I get the 365 EMA ?And how do I read it?
Thanks.
Arnold
 
 
  • Post #57
  • Quote
  • Oct 31, 2007 12:51am Oct 31, 2007 12:51am
  •  zzz
  • | Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 159 Posts
Peter, finally i found you here. are you hiding from your journal on the main forum?

first, thank you for your time that you invested in all this. you definitely improved your karma by doing it, i will tell them when i am up there, promise.

second, i posted a question in your journal and repeating it here, just in case. do you have any interesting observations regarding correlations of different currencies? i've seen on one of your screens all 3: eur/gbp, eur/usd, and gbp/usd, which may suggest that you are using all three. the behavior of eur/gbp definitely gives some clues to the behavior of its majors, i just cannot figure out how to read them. clockwork suggested some solution, but i think we can go further than that. after reading all your posts, now i am even more interested to know your opinion on that topic. you seam to have a very, i don't know, generic? or unique way of looking at things, so you may figure something unusual out.
i am planning some exercises to improve my chart reading skills with crosses and their majors. just waiting until i finish reading all pf materials for the second time, and start working on them. hadn’t I found your journal i would have finished already. now i have to finish running through your trades and go and read jacko thread, coz too many of you are referring to it.

third, you never really explained your trading rules. i looked at your trades and tried to recreate them. will do it for some more time.
i guess what you are doing is you are using major ppz, major trendlines, and drawing 38 and 62% fibos on all the major and minor moves inside of a clearly defined byweekly areas s/r, as it was suggested by clockwork. when you have a confluence of fibos you are putting sell/buy limits. you are using fibo extension tool for targets. You also monitor your trades, the part that i cannot and don’t want to do.

exact place of your limits is more of an art and your hard work, there is no strict rule there. it is pretty much in line with what mark (raczekfx) is doing, i think, he just more in tune with /jpy related pairs.

when you were trading without stops, did you use hedge or critical stop far back, or you were just constantly monitoring your trades, not allowing them to go against you for too much?

what am I missing in your current rules?

thanks.
 
 
  • Post #58
  • Quote
  • Nov 1, 2007 10:02am Nov 1, 2007 10:02am
  •  PeterFM
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Quoting zzz
Disliked
Peter, finally i found you here. are you hiding from your journal on the main forum?
Ignored
No. I been both busy and ill over the last two weeks, and lost track of my trading. At least when I look at my results I can see that you can't do this in an off-hand way. Even trading long-term charts needs care and attention.
Quote
Disliked
first, thank you for your time that you invested in all this. you definitely improved your karma by doing it, i will tell them when i am up there, promise.
Don't go up there too soon. No doubt I'll be waiting for you anyway
Quote
Disliked
second, i posted a question in your journal and repeating it here, just in case. do you have any interesting observations regarding correlations of different currencies? i've seen on one of your screens all 3: eur/gbp, eur/usd, and gbp/usd, which may suggest that you are using all three. the behavior of eur/gbp definitely gives some clues to the behavior of its majors, i just cannot figure out how to read them. clockwork suggested some solution, but i think we can go further than that.
The EURGBP trade was a one-off. I rarely trade this pair as I haven't found a way of making money consistently on it. Check out the EURGBP Trading Room as I'm sure that one or two of the senior guys understand it. The potential is that each pip is worth twice as much as your usual XXXUSD pairs and may suit a range-trading method. One thing I would say. purely on a visual check, is that Pin Bars seem a solid way of trading this pair. Have a look.
Quote
Disliked
.........after reading all your posts, now i am even more interested to know your opinion on that topic. you seam to have a very, i don't know, generic? or unique way of looking at things, so you may figure something unusual out.
Unique, I think, is definitely the word
Quote
Disliked
i am planning some exercises to improve my chart reading skills with crosses and their majors. just waiting until i finish reading all pf materials for the second time, and start working on them. hadn’t I found your journal i would have finished already. now i have to finish running through your trades and go and read jacko thread, coz too many of you are referring to it.
Works WITH the trend remember. I only mention that as I know others have missed this point, and seems solid with the majors. I've not really tried it with GBPJPY as those volatile pairs may be difficult to work this strategy on. Don't quote me on that though.
Quote
Disliked
third, you never really explained your trading rules. i looked at your trades and tried to recreate them. will do it for some more time.
i guess what you are doing is you are using major ppz, major trendlines, and drawing 38 and 62% fibos on all the major and minor moves inside of a clearly defined byweekly areas s/r, as it was suggested by clockwork. when you have a confluence of fibos you are putting sell/buy limits. you are using fibo extension tool for targets. You also monitor your trades, the part that i cannot and don’t want to do.
That pretty well sums it up, but I am moving back to Buy/Sell stops again and will split trades up into chunks. 1/2 as Buy/Sell Limit Orders - 1/2 as Buy/Sell Stops. Haven't quite worked out the exact way I'll do this but when I get back on-track will develop this within my Journal
Quote
Disliked
exact place of your limits is more of an art and your hard work, there is no strict rule there. it is pretty much in line with what mark (raczekfx) is doing, i think, he just more in tune with /jpy related pairs.
I've found that setting correct S/R areas is the art of it. Once I've done that the Limit orders are placed within 10 - 20 pips of it, depending on spread
Quote
Disliked
when you were trading without stops, did you use hedge or critical stop far back , or you were just constantly monitoring your trades, not allowing them to go against you for too much?
No, that's why I blew the account. Serious lesson for all newbies there
Quote
Disliked
what am I missing in your current rules?

thanks.
I don't know. You'll have to ask more questions.
 
 
  • Post #59
  • Quote
  • Nov 1, 2007 10:11pm Nov 1, 2007 10:11pm
  •  zzz
  • | Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 159 Posts
thank you for your time. i will. stay well.
 
 
  • Post #60
  • Quote
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:14pm Nov 13, 2007 4:14pm
  •  jkmack
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 21 Posts
PeterFM,

An Idea for your consideration.

I read about this in the woodie cci forums. It involves graphing your equity curve and using a moving average to be determined by the individual trader.

The idea is that by graphing your equity curve, it gives you an undeniable indication of when you are losing money and therefore should ring an alarm bell for you to stop trading live or to at least lighten up significantly on position size.

Let us say that your historical tests show that you will regularly see a 10% drawdown with a small chance, say 5% chance of a 25% draw down.


You could graph your equity curve with moving averages, and if you experience a drawdown that penetrates those moving averages you switch to demo or paper trades until such time as profits from those demo/paper trades would bring your equity curve back above the moving average, you would then recommence live trading. The interim from going to losing to making money on your trades may include discovering complacency in your processes, you were fighting the market trend, the market conditions had changed substantially enough to invalidate your strategy, your phsycology had grown incompatible with profitable trading, etc. etc.

This guards against complacency. It guards against you being caught in an "up trend" mind set as the market goes flat or rolls over into a down trend. It keeps you focused on the one indicator that matters, your equity curve. So hopefully it guards against seeing 50% or worse drawdowns in your account equity, unless your trading style finds that type of volatility acceptable of course.

The moving average threshold has to be set by the individual according to their trading style/strategy and it's max drawdown probabilities plus taking into account that individuals appetite for volatility.


If the ideas piques your interest or you would like further explaination or discussion, I will try to dig up a link to the thread in the other forum.
 
 
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