DislikedHippo boy, I enjoy having exchanges with you even though we don't share the same view all the time.
Let me tell you what I have seen. There are some fundies to support my view even I don't always look at fundies for answers. Bernanke's QE3 unwrapping this month and China's strong rebound will be the two corner stones for such a move. IMHOIgnored
Am waiting for a run up before I can short again.
Neither Fundies nor the technicals seem to indicate an immediate turn around on the charts (W1, D1 & H4 - all pointing south). If past patterns are to go by, AU seems to have a tendency for continous drops - see April 30 to June 1 - a good 900 pip continuous run.
I found an earlier post in this forum appealing: Order Flows and given the timings the thought process seemed credible.
When all around you hear news of slowing growth, it is difficult to accept a sharp rebound in China's growth - unless the consumption is from within and not export driven. Even the QE3 is about slowing growth and for its effects to kick in will take time - we can see that even based on earlier QEs.
I feel bearish but the PA is at crucial Fib levels - so feel rather undecided about short. I hope I not the only one to feel that way.
IMHO
Many green pips to all.
In The End It is Always OK. If It Is Not OK Then It Is Not The End.