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Abokwaik replies to PMs 95 replies

Hanover - can you help me with MT4 qs please? 4 replies

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Hanover replies to PMs

Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} You are really a dangerous person... aren't you? I don't know if you make such statements because you are paid for it, because you are stakeholder in the forex industry scam, or just to calm your conscience. So you just justified why it is totally ok to harm the weak, because otherwise someone else will do it? A penny lost to the market is well spent....really? Well, acting in good faith and acting responsible beyond what is written down in laws is something that is crucial to run a sustainable business. What I know for sure is that your...
This is hilarious...

Compared to other industries (Meat, dairy, tobacco, alcohol, pharma) the FX retail industry is a joke.
It's not destroying the planet, environment, peoples health or neither it's responsible for world hunger or any other real harm.

Anyone who's consuming meat and dairy out of a supermarket on a daily basis causes more harm to the world than any retail broker will ever do.

No one is getting forced into trading, it's peoples choice and if you're "weak" you will get your ass kicked everywhere (Sports, Job, Trading, Business) by better competition.

(Yes and I got paid by the dangerous FX industry for this post)
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • Post #962
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  • Edited at 6:06am Jan 29, 2018 5:27am | Edited at 6:06am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Maybe it all comes down to these questions: Would you introduce your children (or your most loved ones) into the world of retail forex? If they would ask you at the age of 15 whether they should aim for a higher education / masters degree to get a decent job or invest all their energy into learning how to successfully trade the forex market, what would you recommend?
To learn and "solve" the markets was my goal when I was 15. Growing up relatively poor; I just wanted to become wealthy. It was difficult for me to put the effort into school and go to college because my heart was never into working for someone else. I could never get it through to my family that I had ideas and ambitions that were so different from what they understood to be 'real life'. I wanted to be free financially so that later on in life I could focus entirely on molecular chemistry and particle physics... to achieve my own idea of success rather than be a slave. I wouldn't ever advise this for most people because I understand that most of them don't have the character or mindset required and they wouldn't be able to learn the lessons. I have always had a sort of Darwinian approach to life and the idea of "work smarter not harder" was just something I always wholeheartedly believed in. I always looked forward to discovering I was wrong because I considered it an opportunity to be right in the future; I never believed ignorance would be bliss for me. There are very few individuals I know of that I think would stand a chance. That also has a lot to do with the environment I grew up in. If someone has the aptitude and inclination then I'd perhaps suggest it... but I think there are a lot of decisions that need to be made by the individual that makes it become less of a 'choice' and more of an unshakable resolution that it not only is going to happen but needs to happen (for themselves). I think the harm only comes to those that enter into it with an attachment to money and don't already recognize it as just a number or a tool. Most people do not fit that criteria ever in their lives. I came in guns blazing on purpose; mostly so I could grit my teeth and desensitize myself as much as possible and as quickly as possible to the losses. I wanted to clear my head of the nonsense and learn the game not drive a Ferrari the next week. I doubt that many people expect to lose and want to lose so that they can grow and eventually win but I did.

So, the answer would probably be "hell no I wouldn't have recommended it for anyone else."
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
Michi,

you go down the same line of argument like redeflect... something is really bad, but hey, it is ok because there is something even worse! Really?
So beating somebody up is ok, because someone could even kill this person? Is that your logic?

No....it is not ok and you know exactly why.

So 99% of forex traders are "weak" and would get kicked in the ass no matter what they try to achieve in sport, business, etc.
Wow, I fully disagree on this one and so do most likely 99% of retail traders based on their own personal experience.... ;-)
Friends, think for a moment from Mr.Banker's side, would you, please?

If you have like A$150,000 AUD to sell, but there is noone around to buy it (at that very moment)? Well, Mr.Banker buys it for you! Is not it so, eh?

Why not Mr.Banker to get a reward for what's he doing?

I think it is a fair deal to manipulate the rate anyway Mr.Banker wants, cause every time I do need £120,000 GBP from my USD account, I immediately have it!

And yes, MOST brokers are not delivering retail money to Mr.Banker. Mr.Banker makes nice events, like the CHF on 15 Jan 2015, when the brokers suck it from the wet end and go out of business. CHF event was aimed towards the unfair (to Mr.Banker) LPs and brokers, as a capital punishment...

Trading is hard as hell. That is the reality. And rates are manipulated. So what?

Money still can be made. More or less.
IQ 69. Bang_OO_Mango.
  • Post #965
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  • Edited Jan 30, 2018 12:12pm Jan 29, 2018 1:26pm | Edited Jan 30, 2018 12:12pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
89% of 13224 traders lost money over a 4 year period (this is a significant sample size!)
They lost a total of 175 Mio Euro
The average loss was about 11000 Euros
Most of the accounts were gone within 4 months
Only 1575 traders made a profit / total combined profit was just 13.8 Mio Euro.............
I'm not querying the correctness of the AMF-sourced statistics that you've presented. However, statistics fail to address what for me is a more critical question: whether the small minority who show as profitable do so because of some kind of proficiency; or merely fortuitously (in which case their success is mathematically unsustainable). If I understand correctly, your argument is basically that the FX market must be continuously and completely efficient in order to perform its proper function -- but you don't properly explain how or why -- which you then use as the sole basis for interpreting the statistics, which will naturally (and conveniently) support your case that all retail traders must eventually fail. For example:
Quote
The CFTC data over each quater, the data from several other studies over 2 upto 4 years do all fit a binominal distribution based on the assumption that price is random and it suggests the percentage of winners will go to zero in the long run.

To observers who don't understand how price is being moved, naturally the effect will appear random. The question is to what extent the heavyweights who seek to manipulate price are able to obfuscate the effects. Certainly the retail trader is at an informational disadvantage, but you haven't presented evidence proving that the manipulation doesn't occasionally leave a potentially discernable footprint. It's also my understanding that the greater spot FX market includes large volumes of orders placed by entities whose agenda is neither speculation nor to exploit smaller traders. Re your comments on market makers, I've read that genuine MMs take measures aimed at driving price toward large liquidity pools, which is how they maximize their gains, and that savvy traders can potentially use this information to their advantage.

But even more significantly, my understanding is that retail consists of only 2%-10% (depending on which source you read) of total transacted volume, and that much of it gets netted out, or otherwise resolved, before orders even reach the interbank market -- see the diagrams here. (Therefore non-retail players are necessarily dependent upon each other for the provision of liquidity, to a great extent). It also follows that the retail trader's main adversary is his own (possibly unscrupulous) broker, who offers a composite of multiple price feeds from the greater market, and can potentially manipulate this as he pleases. Hence the efficiency (or any lack of) of the 'real' market effectively gets passed through another significant filter before it reaches the retail sector. Your argument for efficiency is therefore, at best, over-simplified, and at worst, remains a theoretical assumption that you haven't really substantiated.

(As a general comment regarding EMH, institutions have for decades defied academic theories by employing economists, analysts and other experts, on the basis that they are able to provide valuable insight into the nature of future price movement.)

I'm not disputing that, if/where sufficient proficiency fails to exist, retail forex is negative expectancy; that the vast majority of traders lose; that a gross amount of misleading marketing exists; and that many types of fraud exist within the retail industry.

To what extent intervention and regulation is preferable for a society as a whole has always been a moral question, and is ultimately a matter of personal opinion. You haven't explained your case as to why retail FX should be shut down ahead of other speculative activities (e.g. other financial markets; lotteries; casinos; sports betting;.....) that are likewise negative expectancy and where the vast majority also eventually lose.
__________________________

Quote
I don't know if you make such statements because you are paid for it, because you are stakeholder in the forex industry scam, or just to calm your conscience.
No offence, but IMHO this type of immediate assumption reflects unnecessary paranoia, and is the type of comment I would expect from a conspiracy theorist.
  • Post #966
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  • Edited Jan 31, 2018 5:03am Jan 30, 2018 5:07am | Edited Jan 31, 2018 5:03am
@michi: your addtional post is gone already, however - it was a little ray of light - and I can understand your position better. We have different opinions on quite a few points, but that's not a problem as long as each of us tries to explain his views in a logic, decent and consistent way. There is no universal truth in social science, it's always a balancing act on how much responsibility, freedom, protection, etc. a single person should have. The ultimate goal is to maximize the overall benefit for the individuum, but also for all individuums as a group (society).

@hanover:
regarding invervention and regulation - I share your point of view.
I don't think retail forex should be completly shut down and never said that. But since there is no real productive element in it other than providing a littel bit more efficient and liquid market for trade related currency transactions, society has an interest to keep its size and the waste of talent absorbed in this zero sum game in check. There are a lot of parameters that need adjustment to minimize the social costs we all have to carry in the end (leverage limits, negative balance protection, strict marketing rules, gambling addiction prevention measures, transparency, fair execution & less manipulation..etc.). Today a large portion of retail forex is designed to circumvent gambling laws and maximize broker profits....and everybody who has traded for years knows what I am talking about.

For all the other points I need more time to be more specific. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10725450
  • Post #967
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  • Edited at 11:30pm Jan 31, 2018 5:18pm | Edited at 11:30pm
@nobody_in_particular:

Just looking at today's 15 minute chart for the cable:

The seven swing/exhaustion points marked 'A' coincide with 'climax volume' candles (green/red; note: the Better Volume indicators DON'T repaint). Only the two candles marked 'B' don't. Candles marked 'D' are the only significant swing points that I can see, that don't include climax volume. (Note: the volume displayed is merely MT4 tick volume).

The 3 candle 'A's additionally marked 'C' occur in areas of C-liquidity (manually drawn blue boxes). Another candle 'A' falls into a conspicuous zone of prior demand (green box -- from 'II_SupDem' indicator).

Two of these candle 'A's form the daily high and low, and also fall within >60 rated bars on the gray H-L histogram (these occur during times when UK and US institutional traders are most likely to be active).

The TP channel (yellow) is a non-repainting indicator that I designed as a rough guide to (mechanically) signpost overbought/sold-ness. (It's less volatile than Bollinger bands, but more responsive than a Keltner channel).

Of course this behavior doesn't happen with the same consistency every day. But I didn't cherrypick this; it just happens to be today's chart. And it's a fairly 'average' day: price has exactly completed its 111 pip ADR for the day.

1. Does the above represent evidence of some non-randomness?

2. If so, how much of it might exploitable using judicious entries and exits? (or has too much of the move expired by the time the candle closes? Or could the trader trade re-tests back into S/D?) Is there an advantage by being more choosy about one's entries?

Judge for yourself. They are rhetorical and subjective questions -- much depends upon how you see it -- I'm not necessarily seeking formal replies.

And I'm certainly not presenting this as anything like a complete trading 'system'. But the indicators and template are attached, for anybody who'd like to research any of this further for themselves.
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Attached File
File Type: zip Indicators and template.zip   150 KB | 381 downloads
  • Post #968
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  • Edited at 3:11am Feb 1, 2018 1:01am | Edited at 3:11am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Hanover.....you are exactly discribing in this post with what I would label as a classical "keeping the dream alive" marketing strategy...... there are constant winners, how small their percentage might be and those winners have an edge that doesn't wear off over time, that is based on a sound trading process, on experience, on skill and on sound risk management and you can achieve that goal by learning and training. To claim that I want to shut down the forex market so that nobody can outperform me is ridiculous. What I would like to shut...
Absolutely brilliant. Thank you.
This type of info would have taboo and thoroughly frowned upon just a few years ago ...
Quoting hanover
@nobody_in_particular: Just looking at today's 15 minute chart for the cable: The seven swing/exhaustion points marked 'A' coincide with 'climax volume' candles (green/red; note: the Better Volume indicators DON'T repaint). Only the two candles marked 'B' don't. Candles marked 'D' are the only significant swing points that I can see, that don't include climax volume. (Note: the volume displayed is merely MT4 tick volume). The 3 candle 'A's additionally marked 'C' occur in areas of C-liquidity...

thank hanover it's very important me
fx1990
  • Post #970
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  • Edited at 2:04am Feb 1, 2018 1:53am | Edited at 2:04am
Quoting fx1990
it's very important me
Thanks, but please keep in mind that I'm merely asking questions that you might choose to use as a starting point for your own investigation; in no way am I suggesting that this is the basis for a guaranteed profitable solution.
  • Post #971
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  • Edited at 2:50am Feb 1, 2018 2:13am | Edited at 2:50am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Thanks, but please keep in mind that I'm merely asking questions that you might choose to use as a starting point for your own investigation; in no way am I suggesting that this is the basis for a guaranteed profitable solution.

hey hanover. great thread dead you can again it's restart ?

hey sir look my analysis post now 1.48hour both signal hit.......
pls u can it's problem fixed more improve share with our


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=734722
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Quoting fx1990
great thread dead you can again it's restart ?
But how?

Nobody can compel other people to take an interest in something that otherwise wouldn't interest them.

Quote
pls u can it's problem fixed more improve share with our
I don't understand how your system works, hence I have no idea how to improve it.

The green/red shaded indicators in your final screenshot look like they might work well enough in a trending market. But a lot of other tools do, also.
Quoting hanover
{quote}But how? Nobody can compel other people to take an interest in something that otherwise wouldn't interest them. {quote} I don't understand how your system works, hence I have no idea how to improve it.

excel file working great but small problem never correctly update..but currency strength never bad i will check it...
have a one problem my trade never update excel shit...i think other one information very good..
i am it big interest it reason easly identify rangeing pair....





here original post
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...18#post8549718
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 ExportToExcelTimer(1).mq4   13 KB | 117 downloads
File Type: zip Speedometer_v4c+HeatMap(1).zip   596 KB | 150 downloads
File Type: pdf InstallationExcelMT4 (1).pdf   257 KB | 233 downloads
Quoting fx1990
excel file working great but small problem never correctly update..
If you require help with programming, you could try posting in a thread like this one. Sorry but I'm no longer doing MT4 troubleshooting or coding requests. And I don't know how to get MT4 to communicate with Excel, anyway.
Quoting hanover
Does the above represent evidence of some non-randomness?
Yes.

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Quoting hanover
Or could the trader trade re-tests back into S/D?
Every time, with enough potential RR and confirming PA. (see chart above).

Quoting hanover
how much of it might exploitable using judicious entries and exits?
All of it, with judicious entries and exits.

Quoting hanover
Is there an advantage by being more choosy about one's entries?
Yes. But being choosy about one's entries only comes from having an iron-clad methodology.
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Yes. {image} {quote} Every time, with enough potential RR and confirming PA. (see chart above). {quote} All of it, with judicious entries and exits. {quote} Yes. But being choosy about one's entries only comes from having an iron-clad methodology.
Quoting hanover
Does the above represent evidence of some non-randomness?
Yes.

NO!

Here is a random generated series:
I placed the support and resistance zones for easy analysis (;

Attached Image
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Quoting hanover Does the above represent evidence of some non-randomness? Yes. NO! Here is a random generated series: I placed the support and resistance zones for easy analysis (; {image}
In all honesty, Mingary, I can't be arsed conversing with you.
Quoting simond2002
{quote} In all honesty, Mingary, I can't be arsed conversing with you.
Sure, let's just ignore an absolutely fundamental issue (:
  • Post #979
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  • Edited at 10:16pm Feb 1, 2018 11:11am | Edited at 10:16pm
Quoting Mingary
Does the above represent evidence of some non-randomness? Yes. NO! Here is a random generated series: I placed the support and resistance zones for easy analysis
This is the same logical fallacy that Mr Rossouw commits in his video. Let me try to explain it this way:

#1. Chimpanzees have similar characteristics to humans. (DNA is 96% similar)
#2. Chmpanzees can't speak English.
#3. Therefore humans can't speak English.

Obviously this is incorrect. Now to your implied argument:

#1. Randomly generated charts have similar characteristics (trends, respect S/R, etc) to FX price charts.
#2. Randomly generated charts can't ultimately be traded profitably.
#3. Therefore FX charts can't ultimately be traded profitably.

The moral to the story: just because two entities exhibit similar characteristics doesn't necessarily make them exactly the same. You can't automatically assume that a fact applying to one must necessarily apply to the other.

Price charts are created by an entirely different process (human psychology and determination) to RNG charts.

Here are some similar logical fallacies that have been frequently used:

#1. FX trading has similar characteristics to casino games. (speculating on an uncertain future outcome)
#2. It's impossible to beat casino games.
#3. Therefore it's impossible to beat FX.

#1. I am similar to everybody else.
#2. I can't find a way of trading profitably.
#3. Therefore nobody else can find a way of trading profitably.

The point is: even if the conclusion reached in #3 in each case turns out to be correct, the steps used to reach the conclusion don't represent a sound argument. The argument itself is effectively meaningless; it proves nothing either way.

Here are some other logical fallacies that have been used in your thread:
 It's impossible for retail traders to trade FX profitably, because one contributor to the Choros thread is making some apparently false claims.
 It's impossible for retail traders to trade FX profitably, because James16 makes money from selling education.
 It's impossible for retail traders to trade FX profitably, because Jim Rogers says so. (appeal to authority)
 It's impossible for retail traders to trade FX profitably, because I say so. (appeal to non-authority!)

Referring to this post as another example:
 "Short-term price movement IS random. EVERY academic study ever done on the subject confirms this." (it's inconceivable that the writer has read EVERY academic study on the subject; and moreover, he provides no evidence to support his statement)
 "If you deny it, then you're the one who is delusional." (ad hominem attack)
 Some scammers sell useless indicators to newbies, therefore it's impossible for retail traders to trade FX profitably.

HudithePfupf makes some good arguments. But the above are not.
_____________________________

[EDIT] This article has also been referenced by naysayers to 'prove' that retail forex can't be profitable. However, the article's writer is honest enough to reveal the fatal flaw in his own thesis, namely that you can't use a random simulation to disprove trading proficiency. He anticipates this objection, and says: "Now, someone could object to these findings claiming that the results of the study were based on simulations of random systems. ..... Of course, there will always be cases that escape the boundaries of this simulation that was restricted to frequent retail trading, like for example infrequent trend-following or some other strategy based on skill or an algorithm.". In other words, he admits that his statistical results fail to take into account the possibility of proficiency, right from their outset. He claims that proficiency occurs infrequently enough to be disregarded, but his testing process does nothing to prove this infrequency.
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Sure, let's just ignore an absolutely fundamental issue (:
I apologise. I shouldn't have said that, but your thread about suicide has pissed me off and I didn't feel like talking.

Let me reiterate my points. I contend that support and resistance is different to supply and demand. On that basis I don't agree with your zones as you've marked them in your randomly generated series. Having said that, the absolute fundamentals to me are:

  1. The printing of a supply or demand zone is, to all intents and purposes, random
  2. Whether or not price will test the zone is, to all intents and purposes, random
  3. If price tests the zone, the PA that it prints is, to all intents and purposes, random BUT
  4. If price tests a demand zone for example, and then turns north all the while printing a PA I recognise as bullish, that "action" can be said to have shown "intent", which carries with it a probabilistic outcome that price will continue to a target.

The biggest challenge for leveraged retail traders is learning and building their ability to spot these patterns in the correct context. The setups that work out can be seen on the chart every day. Whether or not their existence is a random matter is just a philosophical debate that carries no benefit in terms of working a trading method IMHO. Accepting elements of randomness in terms of trading psychology may be of benefit, but that's another discussion.

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